American Wind Energy Association Presentation by: Randall Swisher, Executive Director American Wind Energy Association Wind Market Overview COG Renewable Energy Seminar June 22, 2005

American Wind Energy Association The National Trade Association representing the Wind Industry in the U.S. –Over 700 Business Members, including: Turbine Manufacturers Component Suppliers Project Developers Electric Utilities Lawyers, Consultants, Investors, etc.

American Wind Energy Association Benefits of Renewables Economic Development Energy Cost Stability Resource Diversity & Conservation Environmental

American Wind Energy Association Renewable Technologies Aren’t All the Same Applications are Different Economics are Different Market Barriers are Different

American Wind Energy Association Turbines: Different Sizes and Applications Small (  10 kW) Homes (Grid-connected) Farms Remote Applications (e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites) Intermediate ( kW) Village Power Hybrid Systems Distributed Power Large (500 kW – 5 MW) Central Station Wind Farms Distributed Power Offshore Wind

American Wind Energy Association Different Types of Wind Power: Large Single Large Turbine Wind FarmDanish Offshore Wind Farm Utility Power Plants Vermont Wind Farm

American Wind Energy Association Different Types of Wind Power: Small Water Pumper Customer-Owned Small Generator Small Turbines Serve Individual Customers

American Wind Energy Association Different Types of Wind Power Individual Large Turbines for Municipal Needs Spirit Lake Schools, IowaTraverse City, Mich. Utility

American Wind Energy Association Wind Power Isn’t Perfect Wind Power output varies over time Wind Power can only meet part of your load Wind Power is location-dependent Wind Power is transmission-dependent Wind Power has environmental impacts... But Wind Power has a Great Future!

American Wind Energy Association Wind Is Growing Worldwide Source: AWEA’s Global Market Report 1.Germany: 16,629 MW 2.Spain: 8,263 MW 3.United States: 6,740 MW 4.Denmark: 3,117 MW 5.India: 3,000 MW Global Wind Capacity More Than Tripled in Last Five Years Global Cumulative Total Over 47,300 MW by end of 2004

American Wind Energy Association Wind Has Hit Sustained Takeoff in the U.S will be a record year – about 2,500 MW 6,740 MW now installed Market fundamentals are strong –Wind’s Competitive Posture Strong and Improving No Longer “Alternative Energy” –Growing Interest Within Financial Community –U.S. Should be World’s Largest Wind Market Over Next Decade Consistent policy is key current constraint

American Wind Energy Association Inconsistent Policy Yields an “Up and Down” Market

American Wind Energy Association Driving Forces Behind Wind’s Growth in U.S. Wind’s Steadily Improving Economics State Policy Gas Price Volatility Utility Experience and Perspective Environmental Issues

American Wind Energy Association 19 state standards Technology, vintage, credit trading, sunset, location eligibility requirements differ WI: 2.2% by 2011 IA: 2% by 1999 MN: 19% by 2015 NV: 15% by 2013 TX: 2.7% by 2009 PA: 8% by 2020 NJ: 6.5% by 2012 CT: 10% by 2010 MA: 4% by 2009 ME: 30% by 2000 NM: 10% by 2011 AZ: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solar Renewable Energy Standards CA: 20% by 2017 NY: 25% by 2013 MD: 7.5% by 2014 RI: 16% by 2019 HI: 20% by 2020 CO: 10% by 2015 MT: 15% by 2015

American Wind Energy Association Wind Insures Against Fuel Price Risk Platts “conservatively estimates that generating electricity from renewable sources can ultimately save consumers more than $5/MWh by eliminating fuel price risk”* *4/8/03 announcement re “Power Price Stability: What’s it Worth?” Great River Energy

American Wind Energy Association Different Ways to Buy Renewable Energy Rate Based as Part of Utility Portfolio Green Pricing –No competition, monopoly utility offers customers choice of supporting wind power construction. Green Marketing –In competitive market, customers empowered to choose service providers that contract to purchase renewables Green Tags –Environmental attributes divorced from energy

American Wind Energy Association Wind Energy is the Star of the Green Market! Environmental Benefit Cost-Competitive Popular Visual Appeal Hydro and Gas Resources Complementary Represents 93.8%* of Green Power in the U.S. *Source: NREL, Sept. 2004

American Wind Energy Association Benefits of Wind: Environmental Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions 30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 100 MMT/year cut in CO2 emissions Reduced Air Pollution 30,000 MW of wind energy in U.S. = 250,000 tons/year cut in NOx emissions Reduced Water Pollution U.S. wind capacity at 30,000 MW = reduced mercury emissions and healthier water for all Americans

American Wind Energy Association What is Wind’s Market Potential? At least 20,000 MW total installed by 2010 in U.S. 6% of electricity supply by 2020 = 100,000 MW of wind power installed by 2020 = a $150 billion market!

American Wind Energy Association What are the Barriers to a $150 Billion U.S. Wind Market? Inconsistent Policy Transmission constraints Electric Industry Operational Rules Siting

American Wind Energy Association Wind Development in the Mid-Atlantic Siting often challenging Projects often smaller Wind speeds lower than Great Plains Green Market Important

American Wind Energy Association Mid-Atlantic Wind Issues: Regional Collaboration is Essential A Working Green Market in PJM Region –Implement a certificates-based energy tracking system –Green Power Standard Offer Service Coherent Regional Policy –Regional RPS –Regional CO2 cap & trade Clean Air credits/allowances for renewables Transmission expansion and rules Thanks for leadership

American Wind Energy Association Contact AWEA Or write to American Wind Energy Association th Street NW, 12 th Floor Washington, DC 20005