Sovereign Debt Conference Session 2: Eurozone Countries at Risk (then and now) Prof. Louka T. Katseli London, 09.09.2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Sovereign Debt Conference Session 2: Eurozone Countries at Risk (then and now) Prof. Louka T. Katseli London,

2008 main economic features: Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece GDP* General Government Gross Debt** Current- Account Balance** Annual Real Effective Exchange Rates vs Euroarea*** General Government balance** Gross Fixed Capital Formation as (%) of GDP* Unemployment Rate* PORTUGAL ,58.5 SPAIN ,711.3 IRELAND ,86.3 GREECE ,616.6 * Annual percentage change ** As a percentage of GDP *** 2005=100 (Price deflator, exports of goods and services) Source: EUROPEAN ECONOMY 6|2011 Sovereign Debt Conference

2008 – 2012 Macroeconomic Policy Measures: Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece Government Expenditures (%) of GDP* Total Tax Revenue (%) of GDP** Labour Compensation per Employee**** Unit Labour Cost**** *** PORTUGAL 44,8 (77) 47,5 (78,4) 35,936,1108,7110,1104,599,8 SPAIN 41,5 (450,9) 48,0 (493,6) 35,533,0115,2120,4113,0106,4 IRELAND 42,7 (77) 42,0 (68,8) 31,129,7114,9111,5112,696,5 GREECE 50,6 (117,9) 54,8 (106) 34,234,9111,0103,7101,5102,9 *General Government Expenditures in bl. € in parenthesis **Total Revenue from Taxes and Social Contributions as a (%) of GDP ***no available data for 2012 **** OECD Index base (2005=100) Source: European Commission – Eurostat Database, OECD Stat Extracts Sovereign Debt Conference

2012 and 2013 main economic features: Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece GDP* General Government Gross Debt** Current- Account Balance** Annual Real Effective Exchange Rates vs Euro area*** General Government Balance** Gross Fixed Capital Formation as (%) of GDP Unemployment Rate* PORTUGAL -3.2 (-2.3) (123.0) -1.9 (0.1) (-5.5) 16 (14,7) 15.9 (18.2) SPAIN -1.4 (-1.5) 84.2 (91.3) -0.9 (1.6) (-6.6) 19,2 (17,7) 25.0 (27.0) IRELAND 0.9 (1.1) (123.3) 5.0 (3.1) (-7.5) 10,0 (10,3) 14.7 (14.2) GREECE -6.4 (-4.2) (175.2) -5.3 (-2.8) (-3.8) 13,1 (13,2) 24.3 (27.0) * Annual percentage change ** As a percentage of GDP *** 2005=100 (Price deflator, exports of goods and services) 2013 forecasts in parentheses Source: European Economic Forecast, EUROPEAN ECONOMY 2|2013, Spring 2013 Sovereign Debt Conference

Percent (%)

Key Questions: 1.Given the experience and policy responses, what are likely short-term and medium term prospects for the economy, debt, financial sustainability and the Eurozone? 2.What are important lessons for Eurozone and national policies to be drawn from national experiences (successes and failures)? How best to tackle growing debt and rising unemployment? 3.What are the future major risks and policy challenges for the Eurozone? Sovereign Debt Conference