IB GEOGRAPHY HL GILLETT OLIVIA & ANAIS 3/22/12 Julian Simon

About Julian Simon February 12, 1932 – February 8, 1998 Job: American economist who worked at the Business Administration at the University of Maryland Written work: The Ultimate Resource and The Ultimate Resource 2, Population Matters, The Economics of Population Growth, The Resourceful Earth View: Originally Malthusian, but then converted to Anti-Malthusian

Julian Simon (juliansimon.com/bio)

Theory Anti - Malthusian theories - Emphasizes the long run benefits of population growth. ‘Simon claims that whereas population growth has a negative effect on living standards in the short run due to diminishing returns and the temporary burden it poses on society, it has positive effects on living standards in the long run due to knowledge advances and economies of scale.’ (Stanford)

Evidence and Support of Simon’s Theories Billiard balls innovation Increase in agricultural land creates more productivity. The Industrial Revolution Per-person food consumption is up over the last 30 years and people after World War 2 are eating better then ever. Water: a problem of distribution Consumption rates: US 600 liters/day per person EU 200 liters/ day per person Africa 30 liters/day per person.

THE BET Simon bet Paul Elrich, John Harte, and John Holden (environmental scientists) in He bet about the prices of five metals (tin, nickel, tungsten, chromium, and copper) a decade later. The environmental scientist predicted the metal would increase in scarcity. Simon won the bet with all five metals decreasing in price, ranging from 5% (chromium) to 74% (tin). He said that those prices where due to rapid developments in technology allowing a more efficient use of resources or the use of cheaper alternatives. (IB Geography Wikispaces)

Theory analysis One of Simon’s biggest success’s that is still in use today is his Overbooking Plan In 2005, a man named John Tierney, a science writer bet an expert on energy industry and foreign relations, Matthew R. Simmons. The bet was very similar to the original Simon- Ehrlich bet on natural resource prices. The two men were betting on what the predicted oil prices in 2010 would be, waging $5,000. Simmons expected that the price oil (about $65 dollars a gallon at the time) would more than triple in five years even if adjusting for inflation. He predicted that the price of oil would be over $200. Tierney decided that he would simply follow the teachings and theories of Julian Simon and bet against Simmons's predictions.

Critique Critiques often argued that while Simon got lucky with some of is predictions, over all his theories were too optimistic. Often he is criticized for the the bet on Timber in which he lost.

In Conclusion Julian Simon’s future predictions, given in 1998 "This is my long-run forecast in brief: The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today's Western living standards. I also speculate that many people will continue to think and say that the conditions of life are getting worse.” (Remembering Julian Simon)