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Presentation transcript:

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-1/21 Regression Models Professor William Greene Stern School of Business IOMS Department Department of Economics

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-2/21 Statistics and Data Analysis Part 10 – Qualitative Data

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-3/21 Modeling Qualitative Data  A Binary Outcome Yes or No – Bernoulli  Survey Responses: Preference Scales  Multiple Choices Such as Brand Choice

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-4/21 Binary Outcomes  Did the advertising campaign “work?”  Will an application be accepted?  Will a borrower default?  Will a voter support candidate H?  Will travelers ride the train?

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-5/21 Modeling Fair Isaacs 13,444 Applicants for a Credit Card (November, 1992) RejectedApproved Experiment = A randomly picked application. Let X = 0 if Rejected Let X = 1 if Accepted

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-6/21 Modelling The Probability  Prob[Accept Application] = θ Prob[Reject Application ] = 1 – θ  Is that all there is? Individual 1: Income = $100,000, lived at the same address for 10 years, owns the home, no derogatory reports, age 35. Individual 2: Income = $15,000, just moved to the rental apartment, 10 major derogatory reports, age 22. Same value of θ?? Not likely.

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-7/21 Bernoulli Regression  Prob[Accept] = θ = a function of Age Income Derogatory reports Length at address Own their home  Looks like regression  Is closely related to regression  A way of handling outcomes (dependent variables) that are Yes/No, 0/1, etc.

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-8/21 Binary Logistic Regression

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-9/21 How To?  It’s not a linear regression model.  It’s not estimated using least squares.  How? See more advanced course in statistics and econometrics  Why do it here? Recognize this very common application when you see it.

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-10/21 Logistic Regression

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-11/21 The Question They Are Really Interested In Of 10,499 people whose application was accepted, 996 (9.49%) defaulted on their credit account (loan). We let X denote the behavior of a credit card recipient. X = 0 if no default X = 1 if default This is a crucial variable for a lender. They spend endless resources trying to learn more about it. No DefaultDefault

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-12/21 Default Model Why didn’t mortgage lenders use this technique in ? They didn’t care!

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-13/21 Application How to determine if an advertising campaign worked? A model based on survey data: Explained variable: Did you buy (or recognize) the product – Yes/No, 0/1. Independent variables: (1) Price, (2) Location, (3)…, (4) Did you see the advertisement? (Yes/No) is 0,1. The question is then whether effect (4) is “significant.” This is a candidate for “Binary Logistic Regression”

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-14/21 Multiple Choices  Multiple possible outcomes Travel mode Brand choice Choice among more than two candidates Television station Location choice (shopping, living, business)  No natural ordering

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-15/ Sydney/Melbourne Travelers

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-16/21 Modeling Multiple Choices  How to combine the information in a model  The model must recognize that making a specific choice means not making the other choices. (Probabilities sum to 1.0.)  Econometrics II, Spring semester.

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-17/21 Ordered Nonquantitative Outcomes  Health satisfaction  Taste test  Strength of preferences about Legislation Movie Fashion  Severity of Injury  Bond ratings

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-18/21

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-19/21 Bond Ratings

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-20/21 Health Satisfaction (HSAT) Self administered survey: Health Care Satisfaction? (0 – 10) Continuous Preference Scale Working Paper EC-08: William Greene:Modeling Ordered Choices

Part 10: Qualitative Data 10-21/21