Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK-4: Environment for Development Brown Bag Discussion UNEP, Nairobi 4 October 2006 Munyaradzi Chenje Head, GEO Section, DEWA GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLOOK-4: Environment for Development Brown Bag Discussion UNEP, Nairobi 4 October 2006 Munyaradzi Chenje Head, GEO Section, DEWA

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Image Courtesy of NASA: SeaWiFs Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October 2006 Keep under review the state of the global environment... UNGA Res (XXVII) 1972

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Provide leadership and encourage partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations UNEP Mission

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Provide the world community with improved access to meaningful environmental data and information, and increase the capacity of governments to use such information for decision-making and action for sustainable human development DEWA Mission

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Science Interface Policy Assessments Indicators Early Warning Monitoring 3 May 2001

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Global Environment Outlook   GEO is the UNEP flagship assessment which bridges science-policy processes   Has two main components – overall process and main   Consultative and participatory process, including capacity building   Main report and complementary products   Involves collaborating centres, UN agencies and other partners

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Global Environment Outlook   Analyses environmental change, causes and impacts, and policy responses   Communicates, raises awareness, provides policy options

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 GEO answers the following questions  What is happening to the environment and why?  What are the consequences for the environment and humanity?  What is being done and how effective is it?  Where are we heading?  What actions could be taken for a more sustainable future?

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 GEO assessment IEA: links environmental state-and-trends with policy responses integrates environmental analysis with social and economic trends and policies incorporates global and sub-global perspectives incorporates historical and future perspectives involves diverse environment-socio-economic expertise

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004  Support for multi-scale assessment and reporting Content Context/Scale Local Sub-national National Sub-regional Regional Global GEO assessment

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Target audiences UNEP Governing Bodies Policy advisors in relevant government ministries UN IGOs, NGOs, civil society Scientific/Academic community Private sector General public, media

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 SUB-GLOBAL PRODUCTS

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 GEO Targeted Products   GEO for Youth Pachamama (Arabic, Chinese, Danish, English, French, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Spanish and Thai)   Training Manual Capacity Building for Integrated Environmental Assessment and Reporting (Chinese, English, French and Spanish)   Technical reports

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004   GC.22/1IB (2003) - keep under review the world environmental situation by... preparing the comprehensive Global Environment Outlook report series, following the full participatory and consultative GEO approach, every five years, with the next report for 2007   GC.23/6 (2005) calls for a GEO-4 process which involves governments and builds upon national, subregional and regional information, assessments and experiences... and strengthens subregional and regional capacities GEO-4 mandates

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 GEO-4 assessment objectives   Show how the environment is key to sustainable development, human well-being, conflict prevention, prosperity and poverty alleviation   Identify the direct and indirect drivers of environmental change and their impacts on the environment, and human well-being   Show the impacts of policy responses since the Brundtland Commission report – Our Common Future – in 1987 in terms of addressing the environmental challenges of today

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004   Analyse progress and barriers towards meeting commitments under MEAs; and effectiveness of policy responses   Identify emerging issues at global and regional levels that may impact human well-being   Use global and regional scenarios to show the impact of different policy interventions   Highlight the need for immediate action at different levels to mitigate and adapt to negative environmental change from human actions and enhance well-being GEO-4 assessment objectives

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004  SECTION A: OVERVIEW Introduction : GEO process, scope etc Introduction : GEO process, scope etc Chapter 1: Environment for Development Chapter 1: Environment for Development  SECTION B: STATE AND TRENDS OF THE ENVIRONMENT: Chapter 2: Atmosphere Chapter 2: Atmosphere Chapter 3: Land Chapter 3: Land Chapter 4: Water Chapter 4: Water Chapter 5: Biodiversity Chapter 5: Biodiversity Chapter 6: Regional Perspectives Chapter 6: Regional Perspectives GEO-4 Outline

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004  SECTION C: ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, HUMAN DIMENSIONS Chapter 7: Interlinkages Chapter 7: Interlinkages Chapter 8: Challenges and Opportunities Chapter 8: Challenges and Opportunities  SECTION D: THE OUTLOOK – TOWARDS 2015 AND BEYOND Chapter 9: The Future Today  SECTION E: ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT: OUR COMMON FUTURE REVISITED Chapter 10: Options for Action Chapter 10: Options for Action GEO-4 Outline

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 GEO-4 consultations   Intergovernmental consultation on strengthening the scientific base of UNEP - Jan 2004   GEO-4 Initial Design Meeting - June 2004   Regional Ad Hoc Expert Consultations - Sept-Oct 2004   Expert and partner consultations - Sept 2004-Feb 2005   GEO-4 Design Meeting - Nov 2004   Global Intergovernmental and Multi-stakeholder Consultation on the scope and process of the fourth Global Environment Outlook (GIMC) - Feb 2005

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004   GEO-4 1 st Production and Authors’ Meeting - June 2005   Set-up of GEO Fellowship programme – August 2005   Lead Authors’ Meetings – October 2005 – Dec 2006   Internal review of Draft 0 of GEO-4 – Jan-Feb 2006   Human well-being meeting – Jan-Feb 2006   GEO-4 2 nd Production and Authors’ Meeting - March 2006   Peer review of Draft 1 of GEO-4 – May-July 2006   GEO-4 Regional Consultations – June-July 2006   Revision into second draft – August-September 2006 GEO-4 chapter development

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 GEO assessment Policy insight Governments – GC/GMEF, MEAs, regional bodies Methodology & process CEGs, science, data, scenarios Specialized inputs Collaborating Centres, NGOs, private sector, youth Specialized inputs Individual experts, private sector, universities, networks Data and information Databases & UN organizations UNEP GEO ASSESSMENT HLCG Task Force Chapter Coordinators Divisional FPs Chapter expert groups CLAs, CREs GEO technical reports GEO global and regional data GEO report series GEO cities and national reports GEO regional reports CAPACITY BUILDING

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Major advances made since 1987 in global governance regimes with the adoption of, inter alia, multilateral environmental agreements Barriers to the realization of the vision of the Brundtland Commission persist because environmental challenges are complex and interwoven with the development challenges Environmental concerns are still not fully integrated into development policy formulation and planning GEO-4 preliminary findings

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Rapid growth in energy use, transport and consumption is resulting in unprecedented absolute growth in emissions causing climate change and air pollution Climate change will continue and there is an increasing concern on severity of anticipated impacts Land degradation is widespread and expanding. Land degradation in drylands (desertification) is at the centre of extreme environmental degradation and extreme poverty GEO-4 preliminary findings

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 All regions point to the threats of climate change, and concern about its potential impacts has grown in all regions over the past 20 years The poor are more vulnerable to natural and human disasters. Economic growth has not been accompanied by environmental sustainability GEO-4 preliminary findings

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004  Timetable for months left to GEO-4 launch in September months left to GEO-4 launch in September months left to have final draft of GEO-4 report 3 months left to have final draft of GEO-4 report May - July: Peer review of 1 st Draft May - July: Peer review of 1 st Draft June-July: Regional Consultations on GEO-4 June-July: Regional Consultations on GEO-4 July-Sept: Revision and production of 2 nd Draft July-Sept: Revision and production of 2 nd Draft Sept: High-level Consultative Group meeting Sept: High-level Consultative Group meeting 9 Oct-7 Nov: Second review process 9 Oct-7 Nov: Second review process Nov: Final Production and Authors’ Meeting Nov: Final Production and Authors’ Meeting 30 Nov: Deadline for submission Final Drafts by CEGs 30 Nov: Deadline for submission Final Drafts by CEGs December 2006: Sign-off on final GEO-4 Draft by UNEP December 2006: Sign-off on final GEO-4 Draft by UNEP GEO-4 Schedule

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Eight draft chapters will be available at dewa03.unep.org/geo/review. The following details provide access to the documents: Username: Reviewer Password: GEO4Draft2 Comments should be sent to: Deadline: 7 November, 2006 GEO-4 second review

Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) Assessment: Brown Bag Discussion, UNEP, Nairobi, 4 October, April, 2004 Thank you