Concepts of Demography By Dr Arshad Usmani Lahore, Pakistan

DEMOGRAPHY It focuses on 3 phenomena: Changes in population size Demography is scientific study of human population It focuses on 3 phenomena: Changes in population size Composition of population Population distribution in space Important ‘demographic processes’ include: fertility, mortality, marriage, education & social mobility

Sources of Demographic Statistics: In a broader sense, additional characteristics such as ethnicity (race, mother tongue), social characteristics (marital status, literacy, educational attainment, women’s status), and economic characteristics (employment status, occupation, income) also need to be considered when describing population characteristics Census National Survey Registration of vital events Demographic Studies Sources of Demographic Statistics:

Definition of Key Words Population Studies Population studies are concerned not only with population variables but also with relationships between population changes & other variables – social, economic, political, biological, genetic, geographical, environmental, health & the like Definition of Key Words Size refers to the number persons in the population Distribution refers to the arrangement of the population in space at a given time Structure is the distribution of population among its sex & age groupings

Key Words Change is the growth or decline of the total population or one of its structural units. The components of change total population are births, deaths, & migrations Age-Sex Composition of a population refers to the proportion of males & females in different age-groups. It has a direct bearing on social, economic, health needs of communities or countries. In an “old” population, for example, the society has to arrange for the care of the elderly, & the country’s health system must be organized accordingly. In a “young” population, on the other hand, the country has to provide more schools, immunizations, & economic support for the young Net-Migration refers to the total number of persons added or subtracted from a population as a result of the combined effect of immigration & emigration

Key Words Urbanization refers to mass migration of rural population into urban centers resulting in increasing the urban population & growth of cities Population Growth Rate (%/ year) is the rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time. Population Doubling Time refers to the time that would take for a population to double. Because the population increase is on the compound interest formula, a 1% per year increase would cause the population to double in about 70 years. If the population is increasing at 3% per year, than the doubling time will be 23.3 years

Key Words Population Pyramid is a pictorial presentation of the age-sex composition of a population Replacement Level Fertility (or Zero population growth) is activated when a couple has two births during their reproductive life, just enough to replace themselves. At a community scale, the replacement level is considered when there are, on the average, 2.1 births per woman, to compensate for child deaths Momentum of Population Growth is the characteristic of population growth when a sharp decline in births does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase

Population Dynamics There are four ways in which the number of people in an area can change during two time periods t0 & t1 Pt1 = Pto + (B – D) + (IM – OM) B = number of live births to mothers in the area D = number of residents died IM = number of persons moving into the area fro permanent residence OM = number of persons moving out of the area to live elsewhere Thus the population of an area may change due to natural reasons (B – D) known as natural increase or due to migration (IM – OM) known as net-migration. Subsequently: Population Growth = Natural Increase + Net Migration

Population Composition While characteristic is an attribute of an individual (e.g. male, young, healthy, employed etc), composition is a property of a group of people. It describes how the total given population is constituted (e.g. 51% males, 20% below age 5, 85% healthy 7& 30% employed etc). Dependency Ratio is an index summarizing an age distribution. Strictly, this is he ratio of population who are economically not active to those who are economically active. However, due to the difficulties in defining economic activity in many countries, especially when international comparisons are made, a ratio of age group is used instead:

Dependency Ratio Population Composition (Cont’d) = Children + Elderly X 100 Working Age = Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100 Pop 15 – 64 years Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 95.1 Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of females in the same population Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100 Number of Females

Demographic Cycle World history suggests that every nation passes through a demographic cycle. The stages are: High Stationary Stage: characterized by high birth rate and high death rate Early Expanding: The death rate begins to decline while birth rate remains unchanged Late Expanding: The death rate declined still further and birth rate tend to fall Low Stationary Stage: Low birth and low death rates Declining Stage: birth rate is lower than the death rate and population starts declining

Demographic Transition Old Balance: (High fertility & High Mortality) A large supply of births was necessary to compensate for the large number of deaths. MMR & IMR extremely high New Balance: (Low fertility & Low Mortality) Represents an improved condition of human efficiency & health, with fewer deaths considerably less efforts required to bring a generation to maturity. Production of agricultural & industrial commodities is greater & life style is more comfortable Imbalance: (High Fertility & Low Mortality) In between old & new balance is the period of rapid natural increase. This growth is helpful for under-populated nations. Too fast growth of population leading economic, social & political chaos ( being faced by numerous developing countries including Pakistan)

Phases of Demographic Transition Birth Rates Death Rates Natural Increase Example Europe prior to 15th century, most other developing countries till the 19th century High High Zero to very slow High Declining Slow Europe 17th century, India 1930s – 40s High Low Rapid Europe 18th century, Pakistan 1970s Declining Low Slow Europe 19th century, East Asian countries in the mid 20th century Low Low Zero or very slow Europe, Japan & USA

World PopulationTrend/ Population Dynamics: 2000 years ago 250 million population 1800 978 million 1900 1650 million 1950 2.5 billion 1970 3.6 billion 1980 4.4 billion 1985 4.8 billion 2000 6 billion

POPULATION EXPLOSION The rampant population growth is viewed as the greatest obstacle to the economic & social development of the majority of peoples in the underdeveloped world Approximately 95% of population growth is in developing countries Currently, 1/3 of the world population is < 15, & will soon enter the reproductive bracket, giving more potential for population growth The expected number of births per woman, at current fertility rate is: Africa 6.1 Asia 3.2 Latin America 3.4 North America 2.0 Europe 1.6

Implications of Population Explosion Economic implications Due to population explosion there are Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade Long term over next century and beyond economic affects Demographic Implications In population with low birth and death rate, 20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13% is 65 or more. The median age for this population is 32 and there is increased demand for senior citizen

Implications of Population Explosion Environmental / Ecological Implications Due to population explosion there are Short term pressure affects during 2-3 decade Long term over next century and beyond economic affects Social / Political Implications In population with low birth and death rate, 20-30% of population is under 15; 9-13% is 65 or more. The median age for this population is 32 and there is increased demand for senior citizens

Age Sex Ratio for Selected Age Groups U.K. Pakistan 0 – 4 105 10 – 14 103 109 45 – 49 101 127 60 – 64 89 134 70 – 74 73 209 75 + 37 173 All ages 95 108

Percent of Population by Age Pakistan U.K. 0 -14 44.5 22.2 15 – 64 51.2 60.0 65 & above 4.2 17.8