Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook Transforming Transportation Washington DC 26 January 2012 Transport Outlook 2050 CO 2 Emissions from 9 billion people TURNING THE RIGHT CORNER TOWARDS A LOW-EMISSION TRANSPORT SECTOR Berlin September 2012

Global passenger transport activity 2010 – 2050 Index of pkm (2010 = 100) 2 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version OECD Economy returns to pre-crisis output trends Policy priority to private ownership and use accommodation No return to pre-crisis output trends Private demand management and further development of public transport supply

Global passenger transport activity 2010 – 2050 Index of pkm (2010 = 100) 3 Non-OECD Economy returns to pre- crisis levels Rapid urbanization while policies enable following OECD private vehicle ownership patterns No return to pre-crisis output trends Rapid urbanization is defined by active private demand management, land use policy and development of public transport Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.

Global passenger transport activity Growth is expected to be much higher outside the OECD leading to total passenger transport flows around 3.6 times as large in 2050 as in 2010 This assumes that car ownership and use follow historical patterns observed in OECD Europe / Japan Discouraging car ownership and use reduces mobility growth and also diverts mobility to two-wheelers and to public transport. Our “low car ownership” scenario indicates that outside the OECD two-wheeler use allows mobility to develop as quickly as in the “high car ownership” scenario at moderate income levels. 4

Global freight transport activity, 2010 – 2050, baseline and decoupling Index of tkm (2010 = 100) 5 Economy returns to pre-crisis trends Transport intensity of GDP equal to unity Economy returns to pre-crisis trends Decoupling of surface freight from GDP Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.

Global freight transport activity, 2010 – 2050, baseline and decoupling Index of tkm (2010 = 100) 6 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version Economy returns to pre-crisis trends Transport intensity of GDP equal to unity Economy returns to pre-crisis trends Decoupling of surface freight from GDP

Freight transport activity Global freight tonne-km to rise 2–4 times by 2050 Low scenario: Decoupling of tonne-km from GDP growth – Rapid dematerialisation – Active policies to dampen freight transport growth High scenario: GDP growth returns to pre-crisis trends and remains transport intensive with unitary elasticity – Evidence from OECD countries supports high freight transport intensity of GDP Developing countries may be embarking on a relatively freight intensive growth path, this upside risk is reflected in the high scenarios 7

Shift in centre of gravity from OECD to non-OECD countries (baseline scenarios) 8 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.

High Scenarios Best interpreted as where demand “would like to go” Realistic? Policy intervention? – Urbanisation policies might slow growth of car ownership and use – High energy prices would suppress growth – ….. But high scenarios far from impossible 9

CO 2 emissions from passenger mobility CO2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility through fuel economy improvement and technological change In the OECD, the CO 2 -saving effect of technological change is sufficiently large that emissions from passenger transport stabilize or even decline despite the transport volume growth of around 30% Outside the OECD, the fast growth of mobility and the switch to more CO 2 -intensive modes imply a large increase in emissions that is only mildly tempered by technological change. The increase is expected to be between 1.5 and 3 times 2010 levels 10

Global CO 2 emissions from total private mobility index (2010 = 100) 11 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version OECD Non-OECD

CO 2 emissions from freight transport CO 2 emissions rise less quickly than mobility through fuel economy improvements and these improvements are larger in the OECD than outside the OECD Due to expected changes in the commodity mix outside the OECD, CO 2 projections in the high scenario may be conservative given the possibility of an increasing share of road freight 12

Global CO 2 emissions from total freight mobility index (2010 = 100) 13 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.

Global CO 2 emissions from transport Globally CO 2 emissions from transport are expected to be 1.5 to 2.5 times higher by 2050 compared to 2010 values In the OECD, stronger growth in demand for freight transport mitigates some of the technological improvements in private mobility in terms of emissions Outside the OECD stronger growth in both passenger and freight mobility together with less technological change puts additional pressure on global emissions In total emissions from transport are to rise by a factor of 2.4 to 4.5 outside the OECD 14

Global CO 2 emissions from transport, index (2010 = 100) 15 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version GDP recovery, high car ownership and GDP intensity of freight transport equal to unity GDP recovery, low car ownership and decoupling of freight transport from GDP

Global CO 2 emissions from transport, by transport mode for passenger and freight, metric-tonnes of CO 2 equivalent 16 Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.

Passenger Modal Split by region, 2010 and 2050 baseline scenario, p-km (%) 17 OECDNon-OECD Source: International Transport Forum calculations using IEA MoMo version 2012.

Global CO 2 emissions from light duty vehicles Maximisation of cost effective fuel economy improvement around the world – GFEI target: 8 l/100km for new fleet in 2008  4 l/100km in 2030; & for whole fleet in 2050 – through continued progress with car emissions standards would stabilise emissions Impressive but not enough to for IPCC 450ppm CO2 limit 18

19 New Car CO 2 Emissions Regulations

An example on Urban development and car use policies Motorization Rates in Shanghai and Beijing in Relation to GDP per Capita 20

Effective Policies for Lower Emissions from Transport Vehicle and fuel Technology - fuel economy (ICE) and low carbon energy vectors Improved Public Transport service through ITS Urban land use and car use – Just like transport generates emissions, inadequate land use generates excessive transport – Regulation & Prices on ownership, access and parking Prices in general reflecting use of resources (costs) as well as value for users and for society Coordinated Use of Multiple Instruments – Technology + integrated planning + regulation & prices 21

Plenary 2: Towards a Green Economy ITF Transport Outlook Transforming Transportation Washington DC 26 January 2012 Thank you Jose Viegas, Secretary General