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2 Eyjafjallajokull volcano plume, April 2010

3 Quebec Ice Storm, January 10, 1998

Natural Hazards?  What is a Natural Hazard? Aspects of the physical world that have the potential to cause considerable harm to others.  What is a Natural Disaster? A Natural hazard is activated and causes harm to humans and destroys or damages their communities. *Natural disasters around the world have been causing more deaths and injuries and wiping out more buildings and cultivated land than ever before. *Disasters occur in those areas of the world that are most heavily population. 4

Comparison and Analysis  Any one disaster can be described by analyzing various factors that determine how great an impact it will have on people  This system recognizes six main factors 5

Comparison and Analysis 1. Frequency  how often is the event likely to happen 2. Duration  the length of time the event lasts 3. Extent  Size of area or region affected  Town? Continent? Region? 6

Comparison and Analysis 4. Speed of onset 4. sudden, without warning, over quickly? 5. build slowly before a peak period 5. Spatial dispersion  area likely to be affected by a particular event 6. Temporal spacing  how hazards and disasters occur in time; are they random or do they occur within a cycle 7

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Storm Stories… 9 Create a hazard event profile for the remaining hazards. Use the information from the following storm story videos, your brain, and pages Also, pass in a brief response (to the three stories). This response should include a short summary of what happened, and a list of the characteristics & effects of the hazard. 1.Flood 2. Tornado 3. Hurricane

Hazard Assessment  Evaluate the potential for a hazardous process  Lots of money being made!  Lawyers, geophysicists, geologists, environmental scientists, geographers  Interpret history, simulate process, monitor modern activity, model future event magnitudes, frequency, recurrence intervals  “16% chance of M-7 rupture in California in next 30 years”

Methods of Classification  Calculating human costs  Impact measured by:  loss of life (total deaths)  number of injuries  damage to property (replacement costs) 12

Which hazards are deadliest?  Flooding  Earthquakes-tsunamis  Hurricanes are next (All historical records)

Rank EventLocationDate Death Toll 1.Bhola cyclone Ganges Delta, East Pakistan, Bangladesh Nov 13, , Earthquake (Tangshan)ChinaJul 28, , Earthquake & Tsunami Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand Dec 26, , EarthquakeHaitiJan , Cyclone NargisMyanmarMay , Hurricane GorkyBangladeshApr 30, ,000 7.EarthquakePakistanOct 8, ,000 8.Earthquake & LandslideChinaMay, , Earthquake & LandslidePeruMay 31, , Flooding & MudslidesVenezulaDec 15, ,000 Top 10 Deadliest Natural Disasters in past 50 years Various sources, incl Wikipedia, Yellow River flooding in China in 1887, 1931, 1938 took up to 2 Million, 4 Million, and 0.9 Million lives

World’s Deadliest Hazards ( ) Based on data from Abbott, Natural Disasters, 6ed But, in US and Canada: Most: Severe Weather (Heat, Freezing Rain) Second most: Tornado Third most: Lightning Fourth most: Flood Fifth most: Hurricane Earthquake Landslide Snow Avalanche KBC textbook-Table 1.1

The fatality-location relation ( ) Why? Based on data from Abbott, Natural Disasters, 6ed

Canada Natural Disaster Fatalities DisasterDateKilled Extreme temp6-Jul Wind stormNov Wind storm15-Oct Slide29-Apr Wild fire11-Jul Slide5-Mar Slide22-Mar Wild fire30-Sep Source:"EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium" <2003 Ice Storm 5-Jan

Which hazards are costliest?  Hurricanes and typhoons are most costly  Earthquakes are next  Winter storms

2005 $US Billions $ Aug Hurricane Katrina $ Aug Hurricane Andrew $ Jan Northridge Earthquake $ Sep Hurricane Ivan $ Oct Hurricane Rita $ Oct Hurricane Wilma $ Aug Hurricane Charley $ Sep Typhoon Mireille (Japan) $ Jan Winter storm Daria (Europe) $ Jan Winter Storm Lothar (Europe) (Mostly storms) World’s most CO$TLY Disasters USA, Japan, Europe…WHY?? Insurance costs Based on data from Abbott, Natural Disasters, 6ed

Jan 12, 2010-M7

Feb 27, 2010-M8.8

Sep 4, M7.1

What factors control damage?  Haiti (M7)  Port-au-Prince (700,000)  230,000 dead  $Hundreds of millions damage (little insured)  Chile (M8.8)  Santiago (5,300,000)  400 dead  $4 to 8 Billion  New Zealand (M7.1)  Christchurch (370,000)  0 dead  $1.4 Billion Population Population density Infrastructure Building codes Magnitude of hazard Intensity of hazard Style of hazard

Canada’s most costly disasters Hurricane Juan: $113M Canadians at risk: Our exposure to natural hazards Canadian Assessment of Natural Hazards Project February 2010

Summary of Deaths and Costs  More deaths in densely populated regions  More costs in developed regions  Globally, floods, earthquakes (+tsunami) and hurricanes are most deadly, but not for North America  Hurricanes and other storms have caused most damage  There is an increasing trend in the number of deaths and amount of damage  We need to consider the data sources, reliability, and meaning when considering history of disaster costs

Methods of Classification  Strength/size/intensity of event  Hurricane system (Saffir Simpson scale)  Tropical depression, tropical storm, category 1-5  Tornadoes (Fujita Scale)  Force 1-5  Earthquakes (Moment Magnitude Scale)  Scale of 1-9, with 9 being cataclysmic, worldwide event  Epidemic, pandemic 27

Methods of Classification  Regional occurrence  Hurricane (Atlantic)  Typhoon (Pacific rim)  Monsoon (Asia, Africa)  Frequency of occurrence  Annually?  Centenially? 28

Disaster Categories  We classify natural disasters by the chief process or sphere in which it operates  Ex: Atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere  This system has three categories 29

Atmospheric Hazards Cyclonic Storms (hurricane, typhoon, cyclone) Tornado (twisters, dust devils) Severe Storm (White Juan, Nor’easter) Flooding (heavy rains) Drought (lack of rain, prolonged high pressure) Wildfire (wind, lightning) Severe Weather (hot/cold) ex: ice storm 30

Biological Hazards Infectious Disease  HIV, H1N1, Bubonic Plague Parasitic Disease  ringworm Insect Infestation  malaria, West Nile virus 31

Geological Hazards Slide (mud, land, rock) Volcanic Activity Earthquake Avalanche Tsunami (tidal wave) 32

Hazards’ Human Costs  Every year natural disasters leave…  4,000,000 homeless  46,000 injured  5520 dead  These figures do not include the recent tsunami in Asia (273,000) and Hurricane Katrina (1000) Source: The International Red Cross 33

Vulnerability  Vulnerability = susceptibility to injury or attack  Human vulnerability leads to financial, structural, and human losses.  Natural hazards only occur in inhabited areas  A natural disaster in an uninhabited area has little tangible impact on people  Natural hazards are increasing because of…  Population growth (more people)  Urbanization (lots of people in small spaces)  alteration of the natural environment (manmade islands) 34

Can natural disasters have positive effects? 35

Positive Effects  natural disasters have beneficial ecological consequences.  rejuvenation of a coniferous forest months and/or years after fires  recharging of groundwater stocks after a flood).  benefits tend to become apparent months or years after an extreme event 36