The Swedish Public Employment Service and Regional Labour Market Monitoring Josef Lannemyr Victor Tanaka 14 september 2010

The Swedish labour market: Brief historical background

From poor agrarian country to rich indusrialized nation Between 1850 and 1970 Sweden had the highest economic growth rate in the world (next to Japan) : –Rationalizations of agricultural methods –Public school reform 1842 –Rapid population growth –City enlargements –The economic post – war boom

The Swedish Model: A large privately owned industrial sector A large public sector financed by taxes A large trade union movement The state playing an active role in labour market policies Ambitions to achieve an even distribution of income and wealth ”The middle way”

1950s to 60s – The golden age yearly GDP-growth average of 5.3 percent and producitivity growth average of 5.6 percent Restructuring model with active labour market policy (Rehn-Meidner) Low unemployment, around 2 percent

Structrual change in the labour market Problems became obvious during oil crisis Cost crisis – decreased competitiveness (shipyard, textile, steel) Internationally dependent => dramatic shifts

1990s A bursting financial bubble The swedish financial crisis 80s deregulation of the financial market – especially loan restrictions Rapid increase in lending focusing on the real estate sector Public finances under strain Mass unemployment (in a swedish perspective) OECD – average since 1993

Unemployment rate, Sweden and Hungary ( OECD, harmonised unemployment rates, ILO defintion)

90s and 2000s EU membership 1995 Dot-com buble 2000 – mild downturn Death of the Swedish model? –Large public sector –High income taxes –Small business sector (than EU and OECD average)

Present situation Sweden has an unemployment rate that is below EU-27. During the last couple of years Sweden has had an unemployment rate at about 6 percent. However, during 2009 the unemployment rate rose to over 8 percent, largely because of the international economic recession New Government

Statistical snapshots

Unemployment in EU Source: EU LFS data EU. July 2010, Harmonized unemployment rate ; Total

Youth unemployment in EU Source: EU LFS data EU. July 2010, Harmonized unemployment rate - age class 15-24; Total

Mission The Swedish Public Employment Service

Mission: Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition) The Swedish Public Employment Service

Mission: Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition) Give priority to weak groups The Swedish Public Employment Service

Mission: Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition) Give priority to weak groups Equal service across the country The Swedish Public Employment Service

Mission: Improve the functioning of the labour market (no distortion of competition) Give priority to weak groups Equal service across the country Promote geographic and professional mobility The Swedish Public Employment Service

Mission (continued): Promote diversity/plurality and work against discrimination The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers: Government budget for Labour market of almost million USD The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers: Government budget for Labour market of almost million USD, of which about –8,5 % on management and administration costs; The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers: Government budget for Labour market of almost million USD, of which about –8,5 % on management and administration costs; –53,5 % on benefits; The Swedish Public Employment Service

High benefits and compensation rates

In numbers: Government budget for Labour market of almost million USD, of which about –8,5 % on management and administration costs; –53,5 % on benefits; –10,5 % on job market programs; and The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers: Government budget for Labour market of almost million USD, of which about –8,5 % on management and administration costs; –53,5 % on benefits; –10,5 % on job market programs; and –23,1 % on employment subsidies. The Swedish Public Employment Service

Public expenditure on labour market policy

In numbers (continued): More than employees The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers (continued): More than employees 30 % of all vacancies The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers (continued): More than employees 30 % of all vacancies in job market programs (3,6 %) The Swedish Public Employment Service

In numbers (continued): More than employees 30 % of all vacancies in job market programs (3,6 %) unemployed (4,6 %) The Swedish Public Employment Service

The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose: From the beginning to satisfy regional needs (employers) The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose: From the beginning to satisfy regional needs (employers) Add value to the whole organisation The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose: From the beginning to satisfy regional needs (employers) Add value to the whole organisation ”Targeted” groups: unemployed, other job seekers, parliament, universities, etc. The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose (continued): Provide job market information The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose (continued): Provide job market information in order to –improve matching (employment offices) The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose (continued): Provide job market information in order to –improve matching (employment offices) –craft labour market policies The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose (continued): Provide job market information in order to –improve matching (employment offices) –craft labour market policies –plan labour market programs The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose (continued): Provide job market information in order to –improve matching (employment offices) –craft labour market policies –plan labour market programs –plan budget The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Purpose (continued): Provide job market information in order to –improve matching (employment offices) –craft labour market policies –plan labour market programs –plan budget –make individual choices (job seekers) The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Method: Questionnaries The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Method: Questionnaries Private sector: representative sample (Statistics Sweden; stratified according to counties, industry, and workplace-size) The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Method: Questionnaries Private sector: representative sample (Statistics Sweden; stratified according to counties, industry, and workplace-size) Public sector: full coverage The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Method: Questionnaries Private sector: representative sample (Statistics Sweden; stratified according to counties, industry, and workplace-size) Public sector: full coverage Internal information system The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Method (continued): International, national and regional monitoring The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

The Öresund region: Skåne Zealand -3.7 million commuters

Process The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Process: Sep/Mar: –Interviews with employers –Results registered through internet application The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Process: Sep/Mar: –Interviews with employers –Results registered through internet application Nov/May: –Analysis and writing (regional and national) The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Process: Sep/Mar: –Interviews with employers –Results registered through internet application Nov/May: –Analysis and writing (regional and national) Dec/Jun: –Press release and published reports The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Output: Regional labour market outlooks National labour market outlook The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Output: Regional labour market outlooks National labour market outlook Occupational forecasts (“Yrkeskompassen”) –Short term outlooks –Long term outlooks The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

Example: Carpenter Yrkeskompassen

Forecasting projects in… …Bulgaria, Belarus, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Romania, Malta, countries in northern Africa, amongst others… The Swedish Public Employment service: The forecasting system

1 b) Estimation of the labour market situation for different occupations Occupatio nal area NrNr Occupation Large surplus SurplusBalanceShortage Large shortage Science, 1 Physicists technology 2 Meteorologist and computing 3 Chemist 4 Geologist, Geophysicist etc 5 Mathematician 6 Statistician 7 Computer programmer, Computer systems designer, System architect, Computer engineer 8 Programmer, computing 9 IT-strategist, IT-analyst 1010 Computer technologist (Network technician) 1 PC-technician 1212 Architect, Town planner 1313 Civil engineer (construction) 1414 Engineer, Master of engineering, electrical power