Commodity Situation and Outlook (Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Livestock) National Turkey Federation Westin Hotel, Washington, DC October 24, 2011

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Presentation transcript:

Commodity Situation and Outlook (Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Livestock) National Turkey Federation Westin Hotel, Washington, DC October 24,

World Corn Production October 12, 2011

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2010 Estimate and 2011/12 Forecasts

Renewable Fuel Standard Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity Source: Production capacity from Renewable Fuels Association. RFS from Energy Independence and Security Act of

U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). 7.6 bil. gal. 5.3 bil. gal.

Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs / Spot prices Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices cents / gal. (10/14/11)

Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) Ethanol $0.12

Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Spreads Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. 45-cent blender credit (Ethanol – RBOB) Blending incentive (10/13/11) = $0.57

World Wheat Production October 12, 2011

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand October 12, 2011

World Soybean Production October 12, 2011

U.S. Soybeans Supply and Use 2010 Estimate and 2011/12 Forecasts

China Soybean Imports Million Tons 56.5 million tons

U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand October 12, 2011

U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand October 12, 2011

Soybean Meal Prices Dollars per ton

Soybean Oil Prices Cents per pound

U.S. Monthly Biodiesel Production

U.S. Domestic Soybean Oil-based Biodiesel Production Margin

Biodiesel Price Comparisons

Renewable Fuel Mandates (RFS 2 -- Excluding Corn-Based)

Soybean/Corn Price Ratio ratio

Soybean Price (Brazilian Real)

September 12, 2011

U.S. Meat Production and Prices October 12, 2011

U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds October 12, 2011

World Cotton Production October 12, 2011

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand October 12, 2011

U.S. Agricultural Exports and the Dollar

U.S. Agricultural Trade

U.S. Consumer Prices

U.S. Consumer Food Prices

U.S. Consumer Food Prices January 2008-August 2011

U.S. Cash Farm Income

Cash Receipts

END (Summary Tables Follow )

Production Summary October 12, 2011

Domestic Demand Summary October 12, 2011

U.S. Export Summary October 12, 2011

Price Summary October 12, 2011