Www.econosystems.com The Sizzling U.S. Economy: Will the SF Bay Area Economy Finally Be Pulled Along? Presented by Anne Ramstetter Wenzel to the Silicon.

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Presentation transcript:

The Sizzling U.S. Economy: Will the SF Bay Area Economy Finally Be Pulled Along? Presented by Anne Ramstetter Wenzel to the Silicon Valley Economic Roundtable December 10, 2003

Presentation Overview: Facts & Figures of the San Francisco Bay Area. Includes a 9-County Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Solano and Sonoma Counties. Employment Situation. State of California: Employment Impact.

Overview (continued) Outsourcing: Impediment to growth? Employment by Industry Office vacancy Rates. Venture capital investing Retail Outlook Q & A

The SF Bay Area by Land:

The SF Bay Area Population:

SF Bay Area Taxable Sales

The Unemployment Rate is Going Down…

But so is San Jose’s labor force…

The two surveys show a different story:

State & local government employment was a source of growth until this year:

Outsourcing of jobs has occurred mainly in business services…

And Manufacturing…Hitting SF & San Jose areas the hardest

Low demand for workers is dampening demand for office space:

Venture capital investing continues to be concentrated here. Funding levels are lower than the peak but still healthy. $1.4 billion in Bay Area VC investments during the 3 rd quarter of –The Bay Area received 1/3 the national total. –More than $860 million invested in October & November.

Retail Outlook is Modest Last year, sales were down. Department store inventories to sales ratio is at a historical low. –Low inventories may inhibit sales growth even in the face of stronger demand. –Specialty and clothing stores performing best. The season should be better than last year.

The Outlook: Modest Growth… …tempered by: – continued overseas outsourcing and automation of software programming. –California’s budget woes, causing falling government employment & freezing of “non- essential” California contracts. But the tech recovery and overall brisk national economy will weigh in for growth.

Recession Recovery & Forecast: