Opportunities and Challenges for New Zealand's Energy Future Rosalind Archer Energy Research Theme Leader Faculty of Engineering University of Auckland

Source: United Nations Environment Program, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment, 2011

International Context Source: United Nations Environment Program, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment, 2011

International Statistics Investment in new renewable capacity (annual) billion USD Renewables power capacity (existing)1,1401,2301,320 GWe Hydropower capacity (existing) ,010 GWe Wind power capacity (existing) GWe Solar PV capacity (grid-connected) GWe Solar hot water capacity (existing) GWth Ethanol production (annual) billion liters Countries with policy targets for renewable energy use Source: Wikipedia

NZ Electricity Source: NZ Energy Quarterly, Ministry of Economic Development, June 2011

NZ Electricity Projections Source: NZ Energy Outlook, Ministry of Economic Development, 2010

NZ Oil Source: NZ Energy Quarterly, Ministry of Economic Development, June 2011

NZ CO 2 Emissions Source: NZ Energy Quarterly, Ministry of Economic Development, June 2011

Fossil Fuels: Challenge Domestic oil production in decline. Oil price? Energy Outlook assumes 120 PJ per annum new gas production from 2017 to Exploration?

Gas Hydrates GNS estimates NZ could have 5 to 50 tcf of methane recoverable from hydrate deposits (Maui = 4 tcf) Recovery process? Economics?

Coal Can natural gas be produced practically and economically from coal-beds in NZ? Underground coal gassification being trialled by Solid Energy. Image:

Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Can carbon dioxide be safely and effectively stored underground? Subsurface pore space that is the most well understood is depleted oil & gas reservoirs, deep saline aquifers have large volumes. Public perception/confidence?

Geothermal Energy How did our deep geothermal systems evolve, how should they be best produced? Projects planned to produce deeper resources and use binary plants to produce lower temperature resources. Image: Courtesy of Prof. Mike O’Sullivan

Enhanced Geothermal – Hot Dry Rock Cold water injected into one well and produced as hot water via another well. Likely to require fracturing. Image:

Wind Energy – Wind Farm Design Novel wind speed monitoring devices. How should wind flow be modelled in complex terrain? Where should turbines be placed (optimally)? Image: Courtesy of Stuart Donovan

Wind Energy - Challenges Offshore wind developments? Environment court/RMA approvals? Image:

Wind - Economics NZ Wind Energy Association believes wind can generate 20% of our electricity. Economic modelling by Infometrics suggests development of more wind energy could mean every New Zealander would be $390 better off per annum by 2030 (assuming an increase in wholesale gas prices and a carbon price of $50/tonne).

Tidal/Wave Energy Crest Energy’s Kaipara project was approved in early Movement of 8,000 million cubic metres of water through the harbour will be harnessed to generate 200 kW electricity. IRL marine generator being tested off Wellington. Will this lead to more development? Image: Pelarmis device, Wikipedia

Biofuels/Bioenergy Novel process developed to react vaporised tallow with methanol to create bio-diesel. By 2040, 30% of NZ’s transport fuels could be derived from Biomass (BERL, August 2011) – largest fraction from woody biomass and short rotation crops.

Green Energy Systems Use of an electric vehicle, which already has a powerful battery, not just for mobility but also to supplement existing household energy storage as appropriate. Image: Courtesy of Dr Udaya Madawala Likely to help increase the penetration of wind energy into the grid.

Inductive Power Transfer Wireless transfer of electric charge applicable to electric vehicle charging. Toll lanes to charge vehicles on motorways? Parking spaces that charge your vehicle while you park? Image:

Green Computing Data centres consume 0.2% of world electricity and emissions could quadruple by 2020 (McKinsey) Optimisation models for automatic design of clustered data storage systems, leading to reduced energy consumption.

Phase Change Materials How can we use phase change materials to improve energy efficiency? Image: Courtesy of Prof. Mohammed Farid

Closing Remarks Technology only one factor in advances in renewable. Policy, regulation, and social acceptance also very important.