Comment: On Making Statistics Valuable to the Public Theodore M. Porter Professor, History of Science Department of History, UCLA

The birth of statistics Numerical records are as old as writing. Censuses and government accounts go back to ancient times. Numerical records are as old as writing. Censuses and government accounts go back to ancient times. The origin of statistics, around 1800, came with ambitions to make a science of the state, of statecraft… The origin of statistics, around 1800, came with ambitions to make a science of the state, of statecraft… … And with an ideal of public knowledge. Census records were no longer secrets of state. … And with an ideal of public knowledge. Census records were no longer secrets of state.

The science of statistics Statistics was at first a social science and not a mathematical one. Statistics was at first a social science and not a mathematical one. It was championed by people who hoped the numbers could speak for themselves…. It was championed by people who hoped the numbers could speak for themselves…. … And would quickly identify the causes of social problems such as crime, suicide, and epidemic disease. … And would quickly identify the causes of social problems such as crime, suicide, and epidemic disease.

Pierre Charles Dupin’s cartogram of illiteracy (1819) Thanks to Michael Friendly:

Guerry and Balbi use statistical maps to try to establish connection between instruction and crime (1829)

Ambitions for statistics Adolphe Quetelet ( ) wanted statistics to be an experimental science of legislation.

The power of statistics “A well made statistic is an impassible testimony, above intimidation and seduction alike” (Michel Chevalier, 1860) “A well made statistic is an impassible testimony, above intimidation and seduction alike” (Michel Chevalier, 1860) “…Wherever the struggle resurfaces between the champions of the general interest and that of private interest, you will find (statisticians) at our post, armed and ready to march.” (Alfred de Foville, 1892) “…Wherever the struggle resurfaces between the champions of the general interest and that of private interest, you will find (statisticians) at our post, armed and ready to march.” (Alfred de Foville, 1892)

How powerful are statistics really? But (Foville added) the governments never listen … But (Foville added) the governments never listen … And it seemed that the message of statistics was often not so straightforward as statisticians had hoped. The charts showed no simple relationship between instruction and crime, for example. And it seemed that the message of statistics was often not so straightforward as statisticians had hoped. The charts showed no simple relationship between instruction and crime, for example.

Statistics and Information The question of public knowledge of statistics presumes that statistics are a form of information. The question of public knowledge of statistics presumes that statistics are a form of information. The idea of information, argues Yaron Ezrahi, usually assumes that the facts (numbers) are self-explanatory, readily available for direct use by anyone. The idea of information, argues Yaron Ezrahi, usually assumes that the facts (numbers) are self-explanatory, readily available for direct use by anyone. Are statistics really transparent? Are their meanings superficially evident? Are statistics really transparent? Are their meanings superficially evident?

The Public and Science The Public and Science From “public understanding of science” to “public engagement with science.” From “public understanding of science” to “public engagement with science.” A scientific spirit may be more important than knowledge of particular facts. A scientific spirit may be more important than knowledge of particular facts. Often (notably in the US) members of the public reject what they know to be accepted science (e.g. evolution). Often (notably in the US) members of the public reject what they know to be accepted science (e.g. evolution).

Public knowledge of statistics One of the papers regrets that the public is ignorant of basic numbers (population of Italy, euro/dollar exchange rate, trends of CO2 emissions, etc.) One of the papers regrets that the public is ignorant of basic numbers (population of Italy, euro/dollar exchange rate, trends of CO2 emissions, etc.) The other takes the economists’ view that people will know what’s in their interest to know, based on costs and benefits to them. The other takes the economists’ view that people will know what’s in their interest to know, based on costs and benefits to them.

What good is knowledge of statistics? It may be less a matter of private advantage than a public good. It may be less a matter of private advantage than a public good. We might hope citizens will know more than private interest dictates. We might hope citizens will know more than private interest dictates. What numbers are important for the public? How do they (we) determine which numbers are important? What numbers are important for the public? How do they (we) determine which numbers are important? Is it good that they think of numbers as straightforward “information”? Is it good that they think of numbers as straightforward “information”?

A little knowledge could be a dangerous thing Numbers circulate widely during elections. They also are manipulated in various ways. Numbers circulate widely during elections. They also are manipulated in various ways. Hypothetically, a president or prime minister might take measures to improve some number in the short term (just before an election) knowing quite well that this will create problems in the longer term. Hypothetically, a president or prime minister might take measures to improve some number in the short term (just before an election) knowing quite well that this will create problems in the longer term.

Statistics that matter The “misery index” became famous in the Reagan-Bush1 years. This table is meant to defend Bush2. Should it be taken seriously? The “misery index” became famous in the Reagan-Bush1 years. This table is meant to defend Bush2. Should it be taken seriously?

It’s good if the public knows more about statistics But it may be just as important for them to learn to take numbers with a grain of salt… But it may be just as important for them to learn to take numbers with a grain of salt… …And to know as much as possible about what the statisics mean. …And to know as much as possible about what the statisics mean.

Thank you