Climate change in Italy An assessment by data and re-analysis models Raffaele Salerno, Mario Giuliacci e Laura Bertolani Mountain Witnesses of Global.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Climate Change: Science and Modeling John Paul Gonzales Project GUTS Teacher PD 6 January 2011.
Advertisements

1 Climate Change Science Kathryn Parker U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Rocky Mountain National Park March 21, 2007 July 1932July 1988 Glacier National.
It all begins with the sun……
3. Natural Climate Variability. SPM 1b Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years Approx. climate range over the 900 years.
Climate Change Impacts in the United States Third National Climate Assessment [Name] [Date] Climate Trends.
DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 16: 05/20/2010 ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast.
Natural Processes that Change Climate
IPCC Climate Change Report Moving Towards Consensus Based on real world data.
3. Climate Change 3.1 Observations 3.2 Theory of Climate Change 3.3 Climate Change Prediction 3.4 The IPCC Process.
Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GG 101 – Spring 2005 Boston University Myneni L31:
1.Sea Ice and Snow cover -Evidences As they melt mountain glaciers leave behind the an altered landscape with low albedo. a. shrinking glacial are around.
Observations and projections of climate change Dan Hodson AP3A90/APMA90 Climate Change and Food Systems 27/1/20111Observations.
Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GE 101 – Spring 2006 Boston University Myneni L28:
28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction Lennart Bengtsson.
IPCC Climate Change Report Moving Towards Consensus Based on real world data.
May 2007 vegetation Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Weather and climate in the 21 st Century: What do we know? What don’t we know?
Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.
Essential Principles Challenge
Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.
Anthropogenic Climate Change The Greenhouse Effect that warms the surface of the Earth occurs because of a few minor constituents of the atmosphere.
5. Future climate predictions Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Temperature: +1.8°C (B1) to +4.0°C.
Climate and Climate Change
3. Climate Change 3.1 Observations 3.2 Theory of Climate Change 3.3 Climate Change Prediction 3.4 The IPCC Process.
The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Authors: Wieslaw Maslowski, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Matthew Higgins, and Andrew Roberts Brian Rosa – Atmospheric Sciences.
Chapter 25 Climate.
European capacity building initiativeecbi Climate Change: an Introduction ecbi Workshops 2007 Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant european.
Global Warming Inez Fung University of California, Berkeley April 2007.
Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GE 101 – Spring 2007 Boston University Myneni L30:
December 2002 Section 2 Past Changes in Climate. Global surface temperatures are rising Relative to average temperature.
Science, Society and Solutions
Climate Change: Theory and Forecasts David Gay National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) (217)
Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.
Climate Change: From Global Predictions to Local Action Mathematical Sciences Research Institute April
The La Niña Influence on Central Alabama Rainfall Patterns.
Global Warming Cause for Concern. Cause for Concern? What is the effect of increased levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere? Nobody knows.
CDC Cover. NOAA Lab roles in CCSP Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Research Elements Element 3. Atmospheric Composition Aeronomy.
SNC2D Brennan Climate Change. Paleoclimate record Ice samples Sediment cores Pollen records Peat Bogs Fossil records Proxies –Use data that represents.
Modern Climate Change Darryn Waugh OES Summer Course, July 2015.
Global Warming Definition: an increase in the earth's atmospheric and oceanic temperatures widely predicted to occur due to an increase in the greenhouse.
Evaluation of climate models, Attribution of climate change IPCC Chpts 7,8 and 12. John F B Mitchell Hadley Centre How well do models simulate present.
Global Climate Change The Evidence and Human Influence Principle Evidence CO 2 and Temperature.
Climate feedbacks for global warming. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the.
The evolution of climate modeling Kevin Hennessy on behalf of CSIRO & the Bureau of Meteorology Tuesday 30 th September 2003 Canberra Short course & Climate.
1Climate Change and Disaster Risk Science and impacts Session 1 World Bank Institute Maarten van Aalst.
Climate Change: an Introduction ecbi Workshops 2007 Claire N Parker Environmental Policy Consultant european capacity building initiative initiative européenne.
EARTH’S CLIMATE PAST and FUTURE SECOND EDITION CHAPTER 17 Climatic Changes Since the 1800s WILLIAM F. RUDDIMAN © 2008 W. H. Freeman and Company.
Environmental Science Chapter 13 Review Chlorofluorocarbons – compounds that contain chlorine, & cause ozone destruction in upper atm. Climate – described.
Climate Variability and Extremes: Is Global Warming Responsible? Chip Konrad Associate Professor Department of Geography, UNC – Chapel Hill Director of.
The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring
Are Humans Causing Global Warming? How do we know? What is the Evidence?
Active/Passive Microwave Observations Provide Essential Climate Variables for Studying Hydrologic Cycle Probably the Greatest Consequences of Our Warming.
Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.
Climate Change and Global Warming Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Waxter Environmental Forum Sweet Briar College.
NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.
Earth-Sun Relationships Climate & Weather. Earth-Sun Relationships Climate and Weather Weather is the condition of the atmosphere at a specific time.
Climates can change suddenly or slowly.  ICE AGE: Period in which huge sheets of ice spread out beyond the polar regions.  El NINO: A disturbance of.
Climate Change & The Probability of Extreme Events Brian Hoskins Royal Society Research Professor & Professor of Meteorology University of Reading Department.
Climate Notes.
Climate Change slides for Exam Two
Air-Sea Interactions The atmosphere and ocean form a coupled system, exchanging heat, momentum and water at the interface. Emmanuel, K. A. 1986: An air-sea.
Radiation Balance and Feedbacks
Question 1 Given that the globe is warming, why does the DJF outlook favor below-average temperatures in the southeastern U. S.? Climate variability on.
Climate Changes.
The Climate System TOPICS ENSO Impacts Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Climate changes Earth is constantly changing, including the climate.
Climate: Climates of Earth
Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific
Understanding and forecasting seasonal-to-decadal climate variations
The Geographies of Climate Change
Climate.
Presentation transcript:

Climate change in Italy An assessment by data and re-analysis models Raffaele Salerno, Mario Giuliacci e Laura Bertolani Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Evidence for climate change The average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 °C Snow cover and ice extent has decreased (-20% Arctic S.I.) Sea level has raised by cm and SST has increased Increase in cloud cover More warm episode of El Niño since the mid-1970s Less extreme low temperature and slightly more extreme high temperature (the 20 th century has been the warmest globally in the past 1000 years) Increase of extreme events Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Regional climate Climate variability occurs predominantly in preferred large- scale and geographically anchored spatial patterns Patterns result from interactions between the atmospheric circulation and the land and ocean surfaces Amplitude can change in time Examples: ENSO, NAO Emissions and aerosol Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Regional climate SLP has been lower than average over the mid and high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, as well as over much of the Arctic, while it has been higher than average over the sub-tropical oceans, especially the Atlantic. Moreover, in the past thirty years, changes in these leading patterns of natural atmospheric variability appear to be unusual in the context of the observational record Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

What about Italy and Mediterranean area? Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 TEMPERATURE....

Winters – years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Springs – years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Summers – years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Autumns – years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

El Niño ten most relevant events: surface temperature anomaly Land and oceans Oceans Land years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Frequency spectrum T max Period (y) Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Frequency spectrum MEI Period (y) Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

DROUGHTS…. Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 What about Italy and Mediterranean area?

1979 – Winters years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

1979 – Springs years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

1979 – Summers years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

1979 – Autumns years Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

WINTER-SPRING-SUMMER SPRING-SUMMER-AUTUMN 1983 SUMMER-AUTUMN-WINTER 2001 AUTUNN-WINTER-SPRING NONE Years of rain deficit > 40/50% in 9 MONTHS Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

GLACIERS MODIFICATIONS Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 What about Italy and Mediterranean area?

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, m -150 m -100 m

STRONGER WINDS AUTUMN-WINTER PERIOD Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 What about Italy and Mediterranean area?

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Increase of extreme events: Floods in autumn Heat waves Extreme rain events Droughts Wind storms Twisters Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Summers with long-period or repeated heat waves: Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Maximum temperature ( °C) Probability ( % ) to overcome col. 1 value with mean Tmax = 27.5 °C Probability ( % ) to overcome col. 1 value with mean Tmax = 28.4 °C Probability increase (%) % 89% 120% 162% 210% 266% The increase of 1 °C of summer mean maximum temperature will have a higher probability of T max > °C Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

1966 – Florence 1951 – Po valley 1993 – Liguria 1994 – Piedmont 2000 – Piedmont/Val d’Aosta 2002 – Lombardia Latest 60 years floods in Italy… Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

…AND THE INCREASE OF EXTREME RAIN EVENT Bari Milan Naples Rome Bologna +380% +250% +220% +200% +190% Turin +190% Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Changes in the atmospheric circulation Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 What about Italy and Mediterranean area?

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 Winter

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 Spring

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 Summer

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 Autumn

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005

Perspective: do global models provide a sufficiently reliable picture of future climate? GCMs contain detailed representations of the atmosphere, oceans, ice, land surface and vegetation, but they are incomplete: process known to be important are not yet or not fully incorporated, or cannot be described explicitely they reflect or understanding of the way the climate system works; any gaps will be mirrored within the atmospheric and oceanic models tend to drift

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 Perspective: Do global models provide a sufficiently reliable picture of future climate? On the other end: models simulate the most important large-scale processes of climate they produce climate changes consistent with expectations derived from an understanding of the physical processes governing climate they are an essential tool and they are able to reproduce global temperature change from ice age to ice age when the changing tilt of the Earth and greenhouse gases are taken into account

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 NEEDS: Quantifying the Earth System today so that we can predict the future and understand the past : Confronting and evaluating the earth system model with the best possible observing system

Mountain Witnesses of Global Changes, Rome, November 16-17, 2005 Epson Meteo Centre and climate studies: present and future developments Modeling at global, regional and local scale Multi-model developments - Predictability Data analysis Inter-compare and evaluate model simulations Downscaling - Feedbacks Ensemble seasonal forecast Statistical studies of time series

THE END