CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION IN MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT R. Magno, A. Crisci, L. Genesio –Ibimet CNR Bologna (Italy) June 2005 WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE “Procedures and guidance of appropriate zoning methodologies and promotion of their application”

DESERTIFICATON The aims of the UNCCD and the National Action Plans are: to assess areas subjected to a desertification risk, adopting methodologies repeatable in several socio-geographical context to provide tools for the public authority to prevent and mitigate such phenomenon, in order to ensure a sustainable land planning monitoring the evolution of the land degradation processes Desertification is “land degradation ( * ) in arid, semiarid and dry sub- humid areas due to various factors, including climatic variations and human activities” (UNCCD) WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 ( * ) Land degradation = loss of soil productivity

DISMED and DESERTNET Projects The international and inter-regional DISMED and DESERTNET- Interreg IIIB MEDOCC projects have been developed on the basis of the climatic analysis to identify the desertification sensitive areas, to produce thematic maps and to implement the approved methodology of ESAs (MEDALUS Project), that analyses the various components of the land degradation process WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 The large number of climatic, biological, pedological and socio- economical indicators that can be used in the ESAs (Environmental Sensitive Areas to desertification) methodology make it versatile and applicable to the various geographical context

- To suggest a proper methodology for the definition of the hydrological balance esteem, in terms of desertification and land degradation due to the climate factors at different scale (from regional to local) - Implementation of the climate analysis methods at regional level (Mediterranean basin) and at local level (Tuscany) in order to develop a cartography of the desertification sensitivity (Aridity index) - Integration of the climate analysis with vegetation, soil and human pressure indices to define critical areas for the Tuscany region THE CONTRIBUTION OF IBIMET-CNR WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 CLIMATIC ANALYSIS Parameters: - Rainfall ( daily and monthly data ) - Min, max and mean temperature ( daily and monthly data ) - ETP Thornthwaite “corrected” ( monthly data ) Period of analysis: /1990 ( reference 30 years for IPCC-WMO) /2000 (current period) (Tuscany) Spatialization of meteorological data: analysis of several methods Final products: - Maps of AI (Aridity Index) - Percentage of AI variation (Tuscany) - SPI Standardized Precipitation Index (Tuscany) Time scale: - Year - Season - Month

METEOROLOGICAL INDICATORS MONITORING Hence the need to have widespread, accurate and continuous monitoring of temperature, rainfall and all phenomena related to them. MONITORING METEOROLOGICAL GAUGES DATA REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS (homogeneous distribution) (scattered and not continuous) - GEOSTATISTICS methods of climatic parameters estimation - Data availability on a long period but WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 Spatialization of climatic data: RMSE analysis Monthly rainfall Monthly max temperature Monthly min temperature Rainfall data: random properties of spatial variability Thermometric data: substantially affected by geographic characteristics of the area

RAINFALLTEMPERATURE Available stations FILES PERIOD FILES PERIOD CLIMATIC DATA SPATIALIZATION COKRIGING MULTIREGRESSIVE + KRIGING OF RESIDUALS ETP Thornthwaite 12* *10 RASTER MAPS TEMP. 12* *10 RASTER MAPS RAINFALLETP 12* *10 RASTER MAPS ARIDITY INDEX 2 MAPS (61-90; 91-00) CLIMATIC DATABASE PENMAN CORRECTION Penman Tthornthwaite Underestimate in particularly dry areas

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 Mean Yearly Temperature: period for the Mediterranean area

Mean Yearly Precipitation: period for the Mediterranean area WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005

Mean Yearly Evapotranspiration: period for the Mediterranean area WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 Mean Yearly Aridity Index: period for the Mediterranean area

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 Using DISMED approach, DESERTNET Project emphasize the dynamic feature of the climate analysis Following the ESAs methodology, other specific aspects of desertification process on the Tuscany region are taken in to account (vegetation, soil, land management, human pressure) SAME APPROACH - DIFFERENT SCALE

THE ARIDITY INDEX ANALYSIS Aridity can affect a region during a specific period, season or even all over the year TIME SCALE SEASON YEAR For a good land management is important to know when the critical period occurs The annual analysis of more then 100 gauges in Tuscany did not show any areas affected by the aridity. But in fact, a large part of the region has turned out to be semi-arid or sub-humid dry in spring and summer seasons. WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 DESERTNET Project: the TUSCANY case

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 At the annual level the low ETP and the autumn and winter rainfall mitigate the aridity ANNUAL ARIDITY INDEX

This phenomenon can greatly affect the agricultural activities and the yield production SPRING ARIDITY INDEX SUMMER ARIDITY INDEX At the seasonal level, particularly in spring and summer periods, a large portion of Tuscany suffers from a strong aridity ( is the range of semi-arid zones in the UNEP classification)

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 Positive value = increasing of aridity in the last 10 years Negative value = decreasing of aridity in the last 10 years DINAMIC ANALYSIS OF ARIDITY INDEX

DROUGHT IN TUSCANY: the SPI Agricultural drought events Not unusual during hottest season In the last decade increase in winter WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 Winter drought events are not limited in the arid areas, but are diffused in most of the Tuscany region

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 WINTER SPI

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 SPI MAPS % of drought events frequency% of drought events frequency variation

ESAI = (CQI * SQI * VQI * MQI * HPI) 1/5 ESAI - Environmental Sensitive Areas Index CQI VQI SQI MQI HPI

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 VULNERABILITY TO DESERTIFICATION: OVERLAP OF CRITICAL AREAS ESAI Turist density - year 2000 Portata del fiume Arno a Subbiano Sibolla lake Annual net balance of CO 2

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 CQI - Climatic Quality Index CQI = (AI * % AI Var. * Drought Freq * % Drought Freq Var. ) 1/4

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 VQI - Vegetation Quality Index VQI = (Erosion protection * Drought resistance * Land cover * Fire risk) 1/4 Rischio strutturale di incendio Copertura da NDVI (TM)

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 MQI - Management Quality Index MQI = (Protection policies * Land management) 1/2 Environmental policy = (National parks * Regional parks * Directive Habitat 92/43-Bioitaly) 1/3 Land management = ((var % SAU/municipal area) * (SAU bio/SAU) * (SAU irrigated/SAU) * (grass- pasture/SAU) * (UBA/SAU)) 1/5

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 HPI – Human Pressure Index HPI = (Population density 2001 * % of population density variation * Tourist density 2001 * % Tourist density variation ) 1/4

WORKSHOP ON CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND MAPPING FOR AGRICULTURE Bologna (Italy) June 2005 CONCLUSIONS The results of the two DISMED and DESERTNET Project show that the climate analysis and its dynamic variation are of great importance for defining the desertification vulnerability at different scales Sensitive areas are affected by a various critical factors and elements that determine the loss of productivity of the soil; but not necessarily the same level of vulnerability is due to the overlap of the same critical factors Nevertheless in areas affected by negative climate conditions human pressure accelerate land degradation processes Is possible to compare the map of desertification vulnerability with maps of other types of environmental problems