ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE Nihan ODABAŞI Assistant Foreign Trade Expert 7 November 2011 Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in Services Statistics (WPTGS)

 Turkish economy registered the most rapid economic growth in Europe for 2010 and for the first half of  While total domestic demand increased by 13.4 % in 2010, this rate was 16.5 % for the 1 st quarter of 2011 and 13.6 % for the 2 nd quarter of  Industrial production index increased by a fairly high proportion of 13.1 % in In addition, it has also remarkable increase rates in the first eight months of  Unemployment rate has risen up to 16.1 % in February 2009 during global crises period. It dropped towards 11.9 % in 2010 because of the rapid economic recovery and production increase.  Whereas Turkish merchandise exports and imports were bn dollars and bn dollars in 2010 respectively, exports were realized by 88.7 bn dollars and imports were realized by bn dollars in the first eight months of Latest Developments in Turkish Economy-I Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 2 November 2011

 Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 7.66 % in October 2011 according to the same month of the previous year. And, it also increased by 3.27 % compared with the previous month of this year.  While Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by % in October 2011 according to the same month of the previous year, the monthly increase in PPI was realised by 1.60 %.  When current account deficit was realised by 47.7 bn dollars in 2010, it was realised by 54.3 bn dollars in the first eight months of  9.3 bn dollars foreign direct investment entered into Turkey in This value was realised by 10.1 bn dollars in the first eight months of Latest Developments in Turkish Economy-II Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 3 November 2011

 There is a similarity between GDP growth and the percentage changes of export and import since Source: TURKSTAT Foreign Trade and GDP (%) Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 4 November 2011

Foreign Trade Developments In the period of January-August 2011 compared with the same month of 2010,  Exports and imports increased by 21.9 % and 39.3 % respectively.  Trade deficit reached to 71.4 billion dollars, rising by 69.5 %. Source: Turkstat Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment / Jan.-Aug Yearly (Billion Dollars) Change (%) Jan.-Aug. (Billion Dollars) Change (%) / /10 Exports (FOB) Imports (CIF) Trade Volume Trade Balance Exports / Imports (%) November 2011

Exports;  Gradual increase since May Imports;  Gradual increase in parallel with exports. Monthly Developments of Exports and Imports Source: Turkstat Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 6 November 2011

Foreign Trade Indices-Methodology Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 7 November 2011  Produced by Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat)  Used by governmental institutions, private sector and all universities in Turkey  Calculated indices: * Unit value index * Volume index * Terms of trade index * Value index  Calculated by Eurostat and UN concepts and methods  Issued by classifications of ISIC Rev.3, BEC, SITC, CPA  Released period: Monthly, quarterly, yearly  Method: Unit value indices – Fisher formula Volume indices – The ratio of the value indices to the fisher unit value indices Terms of trade indices – The ratio of the export unit value index to the import value index  Valuation: Unit value indices are calculated by US Dollars and Turkish Lira

Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-I Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 8 November 2011  Export volume index is higher than export unit value index except the years of 2002, 2004 and 2008 in Turkey. Source: Turkstat

Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-II Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 9 November 2011  In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, o Export unit value index is increased by 15.9 % The export unit value index for agriculture and forestry, fishery, mining, manufacturing increased by 10.5 %, 19.3%, 10%, 16.3%, respectively. Source: Turkstat

Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 10 November 2011  In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, o Export volume index is increased by 14.1 % While the export volume index for fishing, manufacturing increased by 11.5 %, 15.6 %, respectively, the index for agriculture and forestry decreased by 14.4 %. The index for mining remained unchanged. Source: Turkstat Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-III

Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-I Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 11 November 2011  Import volume index is higher than import unit value index except the years of 2002 and 2008 in Turkey. Source: Turkstat

Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 12 November 2011  In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, o Import unit value index is increased by 20.5 % The import unit value index for agriculture and forestry, mining, manufacturing increased by 42.4 %, 28.7 %, 17.3 %, respectively Source: Turkstat Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-II

Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 13 November 2011  In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year, o Import volume index is increased by 4.9 % While the import volume index for agriculture and forestry and mining decreased by 14.9 %, 6.2 %, respectively, the index for manufacturing increased by 8.6 % Source: Turkstat Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-III

Correlation Between Import, Export and Manufacturing Industry Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 14 November 2011  In January 2008-August 2011, o There is 90 % correlation between manufacturing industry production and import volume indices o There is 77 % correlation between manufacturing industry production and export volume indices Source: Turkstat

Unit Value Indices of Exports, Imports & Terms of Trade Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 15 November 2011  In Turkey import prices are higher than export prices in general. According to the higher import prices, terms of trade are fixed down the value of 100. As a result, much more amount of goods should be exported for a unit of imports. Source: Turkstat

Export Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (ISIC) (MILLION DOLLARS) Unit Value Index Volume Index Unit Value Index Volume Index AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY FISHERY MINING AND QUARRYING MANUFACTURING MOTOR VEHICLES, TRAILERS AND SEMI-TRAILERS BASIC METALS TEXTILES WEARING APPAREL, DRESSING AND DYEING OF FUR MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES CHEMICALS AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTS FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS, EXCEPT MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT RUBBER AND PLASTIC PRODUCTS ELECTRICAL MACHINERY AND APPARATUS GENERAL Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 16 ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification Source:Turkstat November =100

Import Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (BEC) Unit Value Index Volume Index Unit Value Index Volume Index CAPITAL GOODS INTERMEDIATE GOODS Unprocessed materials incidental to industry Processed materials incidental to industry Unprocessed fuels and oils Parts of investment goods Parts of transportation vehicles Unprocessed materials of food and beverages Processed materials of food and beverages Processed fuels and oils CONSUMPTION GOODS TOTAL BEC: Broad Economic Categories Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment 17 November 2011 Source: Turkstat 2003=100

ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH MERCHANDISE TRADE NİHAN ODABAŞI Assistant Foreign Trade Expert Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy General Directorate of Economic Research and