EMN Ireland | Migration Patterns of Celtic Tiger Young and other Residents of the Irish Habitat Where did Paddy, Pawel and Peng go next? Corona Joyce, Philip O’Connell and Emma Quinn Presentation to Metropolis Conference, Ponta Delgada, Sept 14 th, 2011

EMN Ireland | Expected Impact of Crisis  Immigrants suffer more  Employment losses  Economic sectors, less secure contracts, lower job tenure  Net migration falls  Less immigration or more emigration?  Who leaves?  Where do they go?

EMN Ireland | ‘Moral Panic’: Return of Mass Emigration?

EMN Ireland | 4 Crises  Property bubble  Banking collapse  Fiscal crisis of the state  Mass unemployment

EMN Ireland | GNP Growth Rate: GNP down by 3.5% in 2008, 10.7% in 2009 and 2% in 2010 Source: Quarterly Economic Commentary

EMN Ireland | Rate of Unemployment: 4.2% in 2005 to 14.2% in 2011 Source: QNHS

EMN Ireland | Unemployment Rates: 14% among Irish, >20% among UK and EU-NMS Source: QNHS

EMN Ireland | Gap between Irish and Non-Irish Unemployment Rates Source: QNHS

EMN Ireland | Irish Labour Migration Policy in the Current Downturn  Further restriction on work permits for low paid non-EU workers in  Revision of the list of occupations eligible for Green Cards in the €30,000-€60,000 salary per annum category.  Increased controls on non-EU students.  Immigration permission to reside for workers who have held permits for 5 years + (in absence of statutory long-term residence status)  Six month ‘breathing space’ in relation to workers made redundant.  Third-Level Graduate Scheme designed to allow graduates to work in Ireland.

EMN Ireland | Changes in Employment and Population, Adult Non-Nationals, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1, 1,000’s : Employment fell by 140,000, population by 126,000 Source: QNHS

EMN Ireland | Changes in Employment and Adult Population by Nationality, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1, 1,000’s Source: QNHS

EMN Ireland | Annual Changes in Adult Population: Irish and Non-Irish Nationals Source: Population and Migration Estimates

EMN Ireland | % Change in Adult Population, by Nationality, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1: Relative decline greater among EU-13 and UK nationals Source: QNHS

EMN Ireland | Migration Flows, Ireland, : Inflow down from 110,000 in 2007 to 31,000 in 2010 Outflow up from 42,000 to 65,000 Source: Population and Migration Estimates

EMN Ireland | Immigration by Nationality, , 1,000’s: EU-NMS: from 53,000 in 2007 to 6,000 in 2010 Rest of World: from 20,000 to 5,000 Source: Population and Migration Estimates

EMN Ireland | Emigration by Nationality, , 1,000’s: 35% Irish, 38% EU-NMS in Source: Population and Migration Estimates

EMN Ireland | Marital Status and % Not in a Family Unit by Nationality Group, Aged 20-44, 2008 & 2010 IrishUKEU-13EU-NMSROW Single57%56%39%45%72%60% 46%38%30% Married40%41%55%51%26%37% 50%59%66% Other3% 6%5%2%3% Not in family unit 14%15% 16%48%35%40%29%30%21% Source: QNHS

EMN Ireland | Emigration by Destination, , 1,000’s: EU-13 and UK increasing Source: Population and Migration Estimates

EMN Ireland | Emigration by Nationality and by Destination, 1,000’s NationalityDestinationNationalityDestination Irish UK EU EU-NMS RoW Total Substantial emigration to Rest of World UK, EU-13 and Rest of World: destinations exceed nationals EU-NMS migrating onwards

EMN Ireland | Conclusion  Crisis had a dramatic impact on immigrants  Particularly EU-NMS in labour market  Immigration fell by more than emigration  Who Emigrated?  Largest numbers: EU-NMS  Population decline related to ‘costs’  EU-13 and UK declined by more, Rest of World by less  % single individuals in migrant population fell  Where did they go?  Substantial migration to Rest of World & UK  Many EU-NMS migrating onwards