Recent Developments in the Irish Labour Market: A Good News Story? Elish Kelly Economic and Social Research Institute Labour Market Symposium Department of Public Expenditure and Reform and Department of Finance 19 May 2015

Employment

1. Employment Numbers increasing since Q4 2012: Good news But What do we know about the profile of those who have entered employment, in terms of, age, gender, education, location? Why is this of interest? Identification of those who have gained, and which groups might need more focus/targeted intervention Mainly graduates, so what about individuals with lower skill levels/early school leavers? Issues: long-term unemployment, mis-match, displacement Of interest to education, employment and unemployment policy-makers

Age Profile of those in Employment Source: Constructed with Q QNHS Longitudinal Data (Aged 15-64), CSO

2. Employment Also, where is the employment taking place, in terms of economic sector and geographic location? Why is this of interest? Are the courses individuals are pursuing (arts, the sciences, business, engineering, etc.), and the level at which they are being undertaken (HE, FET), in line with the jobs that are being created, in terms of both sector and level? Issues: mis-match, displacement Also, implications for labour market activation policies e.g., training courses, etc. And more balanced regional growth Of interest to education, employment and unemployment policy makers

3. Employment What do we know about the quality of jobs that are being created? Full-time v part-time, permanent v temporary, employee protection, earnings? Why is this of interest? Important from individual perspective, in terms of stability and financial planning, mortgage repayments, new mortgage rules, childcare costs, property tax, water charges, etc. Important from Government perspective too

Pre-Q4 2012Q Onwards Professional Status: Self-Employed Employee Assisting relatives Employee Scheme: CE Scheme State-Sponsored Scheme Non-Scheme Employment Type: Full-time Part-time Contract Type: Permanent Job Temporary Job Duration of Temporary Contract: < 1 Month Months Months Months Months Months Months More than 3 Years TU Member: Yes No Employment Characteristics of ‘Q Onwards’ and ‘Pre-Q4 2014’ Job Entrants Source: Constructed with Q QNHS Longitudinal Data (Aged 15-64), CSO

Unemployment

1. Unemployment Numbers decreasing since Q2 2012: Good news again But, still over half of those that are unemployed are long-term unemployed (57.8%) LTU Rate is falling (5.7% Q4 2014) But, what is the profile of those who continue to be long-term unemployed, particularly those 2-3 years and 3 years plus? Why is this important? Implications for labour market activation policy – knowing the profiles of the very long term unemployed (age, gender, education, previous sector of employment, location, etc.) is important for designing measures that will be effective in assisting such individuals to reintegrate into the labour market

In Summary On the surface, it is positive to see employment increasing and unemployment decreasing But, there are deeper, more fundamental issues that need to be examined (e.g., where the jobs are being created, mis- match issues, quality of the jobs being created, profile of the long-term unemployed, etc.) and evidenced produced to inform policy developments in these areas Today’s Labour Market Symposium is an opportunity for the policy-makers engaged in labour market policy development to begin this process

Thank You