Tsunami Warning System Challenges Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute October 30, 2006 Paul Whitmore NOAA/NWS/West Coast-Alaska Tsunami Warning Center

Tsunami Warning Philosophy The PRIME directive: The PRIME directive: Get the warning out prior to wave impact on the coast!!! Get the warning out prior to wave impact on the coast!!! But wait… the phenomena can’t be observed prior to impact on the nearest coasts. But wait… the phenomena can’t be observed prior to impact on the nearest coasts. OK… issue the warning based on associated phenomena (i.e., seismic recordings) OK… issue the warning based on associated phenomena (i.e., seismic recordings) The PROBLEM: The PROBLEM: There is not a one-to-one correspondence between seismic recordings and tsunami generation There is not a one-to-one correspondence between seismic recordings and tsunami generation The RESULT: The RESULT: Tsunami warnings occasionally get issued with no resulting impact Tsunami warnings occasionally get issued with no resulting impact

Tsunami Warning Philosophy The HOPE: The HOPE: Be able to observe the phenomena directly prior to first impact Be able to observe the phenomena directly prior to first impact The REALITY: The REALITY: A denser DART network and forecasting tools will allow us to estimate danger prior to impact for distant tsunamis A denser DART network and forecasting tools will allow us to estimate danger prior to impact for distant tsunamis The DART network and an improved tide gage network will allow faster warning cancellations for regional events The DART network and an improved tide gage network will allow faster warning cancellations for regional events We are not able to verify the wave prior to impact near source and will not be able to in the near future. We are not able to verify the wave prior to impact near source and will not be able to in the near future.

Tsunami Warning System Three basic components: Three basic components: The Warning Center The Warning Center Acquires observational data Acquires observational data Processes the data Processes the data Makes decisions based on observations and protocols Makes decisions based on observations and protocols Disseminates warnings Disseminates warnings Communication systems which carry warnings to emergency management officials and the public Communication systems which carry warnings to emergency management officials and the public NOAA Weather Wire NOAA Weather Wire NOAA Weather Radio/Emergency Alert System NOAA Weather Radio/Emergency Alert System Etc. Etc. Emergency Management Infrastructure Emergency Management Infrastructure Prepares itself and local populations for events Prepares itself and local populations for events Transmits warnings to public Transmits warnings to public Conducts evacuations Conducts evacuations

Tsunami Warning System Two associated components: Two associated components: Research Research Enhances the capabilities of the warning system Enhances the capabilities of the warning system Provides emergency management best estimation of the tsunami hazard zone Provides emergency management best estimation of the tsunami hazard zone Public Education Public Education Alert coastal populations and visitors of their hazard and proper response to both official warnings and nature’s warnings Alert coastal populations and visitors of their hazard and proper response to both official warnings and nature’s warnings

WC/ATWC Area-of- Responsibility WC/ATWC AOR WC/ATWC AOR Western: Western: California California Oregon Oregon Washington Washington British Columbia British Columbia Alaska Alaska Eastern Eastern U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast U.S. Atlantic coast U.S. Atlantic coast Eastern Canada Eastern Canada PTWC AOR: PTWC AOR: Hawaii Hawaii Pacific outside WCATWC AOR Pacific outside WCATWC AOR Interim Puerto Rico/VI/Caribbean Interim Puerto Rico/VI/Caribbean Interim Indian O. Interim Indian O.

WC/ATWC Staff 15 staff 15 staff Director Director TWSO TWSO 5 Sr. Watchstanders 5 Sr. Watchstanders 4 Watchstanders 4 Watchstanders Oceanography Oceanography Geophysics Geophysics Physical Science Physical Science 1 ITO 1 ITO 1 Senior ET 1 Senior ET 1 ET 1 ET Secretary Secretary Center staffed 24x7 with 2 staff. Center staffed 24x7 with 2 staff.

Tsunami Warning Center Core Functions Acquire raw data: Acquire raw data: Seismic data Seismic data Sea level data Sea level data Process and analyze data: Process and analyze data: Initial processing on seismic data Initial processing on seismic data Decision’s based on processed data and protocols Decision’s based on processed data and protocols Post-processing seismic data Post-processing seismic data Display sea level data Display sea level data Analyze sea level data in conjunction with pre-event modeling and historical information Analyze sea level data in conjunction with pre-event modeling and historical information Disseminate Information Disseminate Information

Networks and Example Scenario

Product Delivery Methods

Tsunami Strengthening Program: TWC Enhancements Enhanced DART network (NDBC) Enhanced DART network (NDBC) Enhanced tide gage network (NOS) Enhanced tide gage network (NOS) Upgrade PTWC seismic network Upgrade PTWC seismic network Modernized forecast software (PMEL) Modernized forecast software (PMEL) TsunamiReady support (NWS) TsunamiReady support (NWS) Global seismic network upgrade (USGS) Global seismic network upgrade (USGS) Tsunami Archives (NGDC) Tsunami Archives (NGDC) 24x7 warning centers (TWCs) 24x7 warning centers (TWCs)

Warning System Challenges Need direct wave observations PRIOR to impact on nearest coast Need direct wave observations PRIOR to impact on nearest coast Hazard definition in areas with little historic data Hazard definition in areas with little historic data Warning dissemination to those at risk Warning dissemination to those at risk Infrequency of events and associated complacency Infrequency of events and associated complacency Poorly tsunami-educated public Poorly tsunami-educated public