Department of Political Science In the Grip of Climate Change: The Circumpolar Dimension Rob Huebert CIC Fellow Calgary, Canada 2030North Ottawa June 2, 2009

Main Themes The Canadian Arctic is in a state of massive transformation through Climate Change Perception/Reality of Increased Assessiblity Impact on Canadian –Domestic –Circumpolar –International Potential for new tensions/insecurities; but could also create new opportunities What should Canada do?

Transforming Northern Society Youngest Population in Canada –Impact of Globalization/Communications Evolution of Traditional Culture New Actors in Canadian North Climate Change and Society –Weather –Hunting

The Face of Northern Leadership

Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008 Source: Canadian Ice Service

Climate Change and Economics Land Based Resource Production –Increased challenges: melting permafrost Marine Based Resource Production Fishing –New stock –New International pressures Marine Transportation –New entries –Safety, Security, Sustainable, Sovereignty

Oil and Gas Oil and Gas: Resources of the North Source: AMAP

US Geological Survey Arctic 2008 To determine the sources of traditional energy supplies No consideration of non-traditional energy –E.g. gas hydrates Main Findings 30% of undiscovered Natural Gas in Arctic 13% of undiscovered Oil in Arctic

New Oil and Gas Activity –North America Exxon/Mobil, Imperial - Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta: $585 million five years BP – Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta: $1.2 billion Continued Debate over Gas Pipelines

1st Arctic Shuttle Tanker Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

Proposed Arctic LNG Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

Gas Hydrates Mallik Gas Hydrate Test – Mackenzie Delta 2002 (Source USGS)

New Interests in Arctic Chinese interest in Polar Science, Resource sources and Transportation Japanese funding of Canadian research in Gas Hydrates South Korean Polar Ship Building –Samsung; Daewoo EU Arctic Policy

Chinese Arctic Interest Xue Long in Antarctica -1 st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008 Was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk

Northern Governance – (where to Draw Borders and who gets to do what within them) Devolution Unilateral Action –Existing Rules are Sufficient –Illussat May 2008 Regional –Role of Arctic Council –New Regional Agreement International –Inclusion of non-Arctic States eg EU

Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic

Canadian Effort for Article 76 Natural Resources Canada

Russian 1 st Claim - Article 76

New Geopolitics of the North Russia –Renewed Assertiveness –Petrodollars United States –Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act –International Role as remaining Superpower Norway –Refocus on North –Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia Denmark –Issues with Greenland – social; energy Iceland –Economic melt-down Canada –Re-examining its Arctic capabilities –Renewed Assertiveness

Renewed Russian Strengths 1990’s Period of Extreme Reduction 2000’s Renewal Russian State Rearmament Programme SSBN 995 Borey 2 SSN 885 Yasen 6 Diesel 677 Lada Yury Dolgoruky

Russian Surface Fleet Return to Arctic Waters Marshal Ustinov Severomosk Summer 2008

US Arctic Forces Submarine Forces: US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; (Virginia Class?) Cooperation with UK ICETEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN - Missile Development Missile Defence – Ft. Greely USS Honolulu 2003HMS Tireless 2007 after accident

Norwegian Developments Fridtjof Nansen class - 5 –Aegis system Purchase 48 F-35 JSF Aircraft Nov 2008 Roald Amundsen and Admiral Kuznetsov 2008 Source: RNoAF

Canadian Security Actions New Military Operations since Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels Nanisivik Refueling Facility Resolute Bay Training Facility Increased Rangers Patrols Northern Watch Throne Speech Oct 2007 –Northern Strategy (Sovereignty/Security)

Canadian Defence Actions (cont.) Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper) Focus on Arctic Security Postponement (Cancelation?) of Joint Support Vessels Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic - Nordreg

Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missionsBe capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missions “Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domain awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missions “ - DND Source JTFN

Conclusion Climate Change is Transforming the Arctic New Perceptions/Realities of Accessibility Fair Safe Secure Sustainable