4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series Time Series Monitoring and Temporal Analysis Index numbers Feedback in the planning cycle Growth Rates Introduction exercise 4.3.3

4.3.3 Time Series Monitoring: Slum Trend

4.3.3 Time Series Monitoring: Proposed versus Real Land Use Differences between master plan (1988) and reality (2000) Wuhan, China

4.3.3 Time Series Monitoring and Temporal Analysis Monitoring to analyze and understand changes over time Spatial-temporal analysis Performance measuring Feedback and adaptation of programs and policies

4.3.3 Time Series Urban Growth, Villavicencio Spatial – Temporal Urban Development

4.3.3 Time Series 6

Urban Growth, Wuhan

4.3.3 Time Series Nairobi, Kibera (1968)

4.3.3 Time Series Nairobi, Kibera (1978)

4.3.3 Time Series Nairobi, Kibera (1987) Small Format Aerial Photograph Courtesy Paul Hofstee, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation

4.3.3 Time Series Nairobi, Kibera (2002)

4.3.3 Time Series Trujillo, Peru (1969) Informal development Aerial Photograph

4.3.3 Time Series Trujillo, Peru (1997) Informal development Spatial-Temporal Development

4.3.3 Time Series Index Numbers Index: composite measure of two or more indicators e.g. consumer price index, human development index Index number = (value / base value ) * define purpose of index select data source select base for comparison select methods of aggregation and weighting

4.3.3 Time Series Index Numbers Comparing indexes, index number/proportion/percentage Ii = (Mi / M0) * 100 Ii= Index number in year i Mi= measurement in year i M0= measurement in base year Price of cup of coffee in 2002 € 2.00 Price of cup of coffee in 2004 € 2,25 Price relative is (2.25/2.00) * 100 = 113

4.3.3 Time Series Feedback in the Planning Cycle Assess current situation Formulate policies and programs, prioritize objectives and targets Monitor implementation Provide feedback to make mid-course changes Communicate results

4.3.3 Time Series Growth Rates Annual population growth rate Pt = P0 * (1+r)t P0= Population at the beginning of the period Pt= Population at the end of the period r= average annual growth rate t= number of years in the period

4.3.3 Time Series

Population Growth Rates

4.3.3 Time Series Introduction Exercise (In) compatibility of data sets for different years Changes in boundaries (splitting and merging of municipalities), code and name changes, new variables addes, old variables deleted, errors Calculate population and income changes in Dutch Municipalities between 1995 and 1999