Econ 337, Spring 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor Lee Schulz Assistant Professor ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Sources of economic risk… Livestock prices (feeder and finished) Feed prices Interest rates Equipment/facilities Capacity utilization Labor Health/performance Other??? How are these risks managed? (and which are most important)

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Volatility over the past 5 years has increased to unprecedented levels. Overriding factors: –Domestic and foreign political policy –Domestic and foreign economic policy –Changing global supply and demand balance –Weather/natural occurrences affecting supply and logistics The equity and working capital necessary to operate the same volume of business has nearly doubled MORE IS AT STAKE: Greater potential for profit, greater potential for substantial loss Managing price risk is essential…

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Methods of managing price risk… Cash sales (purchases) Forward contract Hedge with futures contract, i.e., sell (buy) futures Buy put (call) option Other option marketing strategies Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Livestock Gross Margin (LGM) Price risk management → Coordinated and economical application of strategies to minimize, monitor, and control the probability of adverse price movements

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Cash sales (purchases)… Characteristics - –easy to understand –retain price and basis* risk –no quantity or quality obligations (within reason) –no futures broker or margin calls –financial risk (i.e., risk of not getting paid) depends on financial strength/integrity of buyer * basis = cash price – futures price

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Forward contract… Characteristics - –locks in a “fixed” price –basis risk is eliminated –pay a premium for transferring basis risk –no margin account or maintenance required –may or may not involve broker / brokerage commission –contract specifications and size flexible (within reason) –obligated to deliver –low quality cattle might be excluded/refused –weight price slide risk –risk of other party not honoring contract –not always available –prices are not very transparent

Econ 337, Spring 2014  Formula  Most common contract  Price tied to another market, typically spot (cash)  Examples:  3-Day rolling average of Iowa/SoMinnesota weighted average +$1.50  Last week’s average excluding the high and low  92% of the previous day cutout value  Buyer does not share risk Types of Contracts

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Types of Contracts  Fixed window  Formula tied to cash price  Predetermined upper and lower bounds  Share pain and gain outside window  Example: $50 and split 50/50 above and below  Floating window  Formula tied to cash price  Boundaries move with feed prices  Do not share outside of window  Buyer shares risk

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Types of Contracts  Cost-Plus  Price direct function of feed prices  Fixed amount for non-feed costs + known margin  Buyer assumes all price risk  Ledger  Floor price is fixed or based on feed prices  Producer is “loaned” the difference between floor and lower cash prices  Loan is repaid at higher cash prices  Buyer provides line of credit but not risk share

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Hedge with futures contract… Characteristics - –locks in a “fixed” price (CME futures price) –subject to basis risk –fixed contract specifications and size –deal with broker / brokerage commission –margin account and maintenance required –easy to enter and liquidate –transparent price quotes –no risk of other party “backing out” –feeder cattle futures is cash settled contract  No delivery ability / obligation  No risk of low quality cattle being “refused”

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Buy put (call) option contract… Characteristics - –locks in a “floor” price (ceiling for call) (strike price) –subject to basis risk –fixed contract specifications and size –deal with broker / brokerage commission –pay premium for option –no margin calls (unless option is exercised) –easy to enter and liquidate –transparent price quotes –no risk of other party “backing out” –cash settled contract (no delivery ability / obligation)

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Other options strategies… Characteristics - –anything goes… –buy / sell puts(s), call(s), sell futures, forward contract… –selling options requires margin account and maintenance –make sure you know what you are doing Several of the more common option strategies –Synthetic put – hedge (sell futures) or forward contract and buy call option (works similar to buying put option) –Window / fence – establish minimum (floor) and maximum (ceiling) prices by buying a put option and selling a call option(s)

Econ 337, Spring 2014

Risk management using futures… Hedging defined… Use of the futures market as a temporary substitute for an intended transaction in the cash market which will occur at a later date

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Relationship Between Cash & Futures Prices is Critical for Risk Management Basis = Cash Price – Futures Price Rearranging formula gives Basis + Futures Price = Cash Price

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Decomposing a Cash Price Cash Price = Basis + Futures Price Recall definition of hedging Hedging effectively “locks in” the Futures Price when the hedger sells (for a short hedger) the futures contract Hedging does not lock in the Basis Therefore the Cash Price is not locked in and the hedger is still exposed to basis risk

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Evaluating a Hedge At the time the hedge is placed, we can estimate the Expected Selling Price (i.e., what the hedger expects to receive for the commodity net any gains or losses in the futures, minus the brokerage commission) Futures Price at which futures contract is sold + Expected Basis -Brokerage commission Expected Selling Price

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Futures Hedge Example Assume JUN LC are $124.57/cwt when hedge is initiated (Nov 22) Expect June basis to be +$1.00/cwt (for 1250 lb steer) Assume brokerage commission = $60/ round turn or $0.15/cwt What is the Expected Selling Price? Futures Price at which hedge is initiated $ Expected Basis Brokerage commission Expected Selling Price $125.42/cwt

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Basis… Generally, basis is more predictable than cash or futures prices due to:  Convergence  Futures and cash prices move together (same fundamental conditions generally affect both markets)  Year-to-year stability implies the ability to rely upon historical data for predictions  Sources of basis information  Ag Decision Maker (  Beef Basis – feeder cattle (

Basis… Strong Weak Narrow Wide Over Under

Econ 337, Spring 2014 At Hedge’s Conclusion Calculate Actual Sale Price Price received in the cash market + Net on futures transaction -Brokerage commission Actual Sale Price

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Futures Hedge Example Assume JUN LC are $127.07/cwt on 6/15 when hedge is concluded Assume cash 1250 lb steer price = $128.07/cwt when hedge concludes What is your net gain on the futures trade? Sold JUN LC $ Offset (buy) JUN LC Net gain on futures transaction

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Futures Hedge Example So, if JUN LC are $127.07/cwt on 6/15 when hedge concludes And cash 1250 lb steer price = $128.07/cwt when hedge concludes What is the Actual Sale Price? Price received in cash market $ Net on futures transaction Brokerage commission Actual Sale Price $125.42/cwt Expected = Actual Why? Because Expected Basis = Actual Basis

Econ 337, Spring 2014 $ $

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Option Hedging Strategies Buying a PUT (CALL) gives the option buyer the right but not the obligation to SELL (BUY) a futures contract at a specified price known as the “strike price” So, we can use the purchase price of the PUT (CALL) in place of selling (buying) a futures contract Therefore, a producer can buy a PUT option to establish a Minimum Expected Selling Price Similarly, buying a CALL option will establish a Maximum Expected Purchase Price

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Minimum Expected Selling Price Buy a Put start with a put option strike price subtract the put option premium This creates a “futures equivalent” then add basis forecast subtract brokerage commission –remember that many brokers charge once to buy an option and once to sell an option –have to account for possibility of “double” brokerage commission in calculations

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Minimum Expected Selling Price Buy a Put Example: Buy CME $ JUN Live Cattle PUT (when JUN LC futures $124.57) Put option premium = $3.85/cwt Mid June basis forecast = +$1.00/cwt (1250 lb steer) Assume brokerage commission is $30 ($0.075/cwt) to buy an option contract and $30 ($0.075/cwt) to sell an option contract For the buyer of a $ JUN LC Put What is the Minimum Expected Selling Price?

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Minimum Expected Selling Price Buy a Put $124.00Option Strike Price Put Premium $120.15/cwtFutures equivalent Expected mid June basis Maximum possible commission $121.00/cwtMinimum Expected Selling Price

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Actual Sale Price start with price received in cash market add the “net” from the option trade subtract actual brokerage commission -- Sell cash cattle in mid June for $128.07/cwt -- JUN live cattle futures are $127.07/cwt -- What is the value of $ put option?

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Actual Sale Price (for buyer of CME Put Option) $ Cash Market Price Net on Option Trade Brokerage Commission $ Actual Net Sale Price Actual > Expected Minimum Why? Prices went up after Put Option purchase and the Put Option buyer retained the right to benefit from future price increases

Econ 337, Spring 2014 $ $ $

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Comparing pricing alternatives… Cash vs. Hedging vs. Options… Because the various risk management tools have different characteristics (e.g., flat price vs. minimum price), it is useful to compare them under alternative price outcomes

Econ 337, Spring 2014 Class web site: Spring2014/