Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Economic Update Kevin Lings Economist November 2013

(% y/y ) World GDP growth (IMF) 3.6% Oct‘12 4.6% Oct‘12

GDP growth in emerging vs advanced economies 3 % q/q, saar (dashed lines are 2010/2012 averages) Emerging markets Advanced economies

United States GDP performance Index, Q = 100 US

%y/y US leading indicator

US$ trillion US statutory limit on Federal Debt US debt ceiling US government debt

$ billion US Federal Reserve Total Assets QE 1 QE 2 QE 3

%y/y Euro-area leading indicator

Euro-area: economic sentiment indicator Index, 100 = average Core of Euro-area Periphery of Euro-area

Index Q = 100 Euro-area GDP index (real) vs US real GDP index USA GDP Euro-area GDP

% unemployed Youth unemployment rate in Germany

% unemployed Youth unemployment rate in Greece

% Developed vs Emerging market inflation rate Emerging markets Developed markets

% US consumer inflation

% Euro-area Consumer inflation in the Euro-area

%y/y Japan consumer inflation rate 2% target set in Jan 2013 Headline inflation Core inflation

% UK Euro-area US Euro-area, US, Japan and UK official interest rates Japan

%, y/y, real terms China real GDP growth

China rebalancing needed % of total China GDP Fixed investment activity Consumer activity

%y/y Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth

%y/y, real GDP growth, average over 10 years Sub-Saharan Africa fastest growing economies Past 10 years

% of GDP Sub-Saharan Africa Government Debt as % of GDP

$ billion Sub-Saharan Africa net foreign direct investment

South Africa’s international perception

%, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real SA consumer disposable income

%, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real Consumer incomeConsumer spending SA consumer spending vs disposable income

Index SA manufacturing activity vs retail activity SA retail activity SA manufacturing activity SA economic recovery has been consumption based, rather than production based

% of total SA manufacturing production as % of GDP

Rbn SA trade balance – 12 month moving average

% over past three months. Personal loans SA growth in consumer unsecured credit

Index SA consumer confidence (BER)

SA formal sector employment Million Still formal sector jobs below the peak

Thousands SA mining employment

%q/q, annualised Growth in fixed investment spending

%y/y OECD leading indicator vs SA leading indicator OECD leading indicator (lhs) SA leading indicator (rhs) %y/y

SA exports to Africa R billion, 6-month moving average SA exports more to Africa than to North and South America combined

R Billions SA travel receipts World Soccer Cup 2010

R Billions SA net travel account

Building plans passed – residential sector Rbn, constant prices, 12-month moving average

% y/y SA headline CPI forecast

% SA Interest Rate Forecast Prime rate Repo rate