The Role of Latin America in the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University October 6, 2008 Seminario Internacional Fundacion BBVA – Ivie 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

The Role of Latin America in the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University October 6, 2008 Seminario Internacional Fundacion BBVA – Ivie 2008 Buenos Aires

Economic Growth in the Information Age INTRODUCTION: Prices of Information Technology ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices and the Cost of Capital WORLD GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME: The New Research Agenda

HOLDING QUALITY CONSTANT Matched Models and Hedonics SOFTWARE: Prepackaged, Custom, and Own-Account. SEMICONDUCTOR PRICE INDEXES: Memory and Logic Chips. COMPUTER PRICE INDEXES: The BEA-IBM Collaboration. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT: Terminal, Switching, and Transmission.

Relative Prices of Computers and Semiconductors, All price indexes are divided by the output price index ComputersMemoryLogic

ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices, Investment, and Productivity. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. INPUT SHARES OF IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION: IT vs. Non-IT Capital Services.

Average annual growth rates, weighted by the income share.

World Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares

G7 Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares

Capital Input Contribution: Latin America Annual Contribution (%)

Developing and Transition Economy Contribution of Information Technology Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates, weighted by income shares

WORLD GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth. LABOR INPUT GROWTH: Hours Worked and Labor Quality. TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY: IT-Production versus Non-IT Production. SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP.

Sources of World Economic Growth Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates

Sources of G7 Economic Growth Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates

Sources of Growth by Country: Latin America Annual Contribution (%)

Sources of Growth for Developing and Transition Economies Annual Contribution (%) Annual percentage growth rates

RESEARCH ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: Relative Importance of Investment and Productivity OFFICIAL STATISTICS: Implementation of a New Architecture for the National Accounts POLICY ANALYSIS: Potential Growth in Latin America and the World Economy ECONOMIC RESEARCH, OFFICIAL STATISTICS, AND POLICY ANALYSIS

World and Major Regions: Growth Projections,

G7: Growth Projections,

Major Developing and Transition Economies: Growth Projections,

Latin America: Growth Projections,

CURRENT RELEASE: March EU ECONOMIES: Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, and the U.S. EU KLEMS PROJECT COMPLETION DATE: June 30, 2008 SOURCES OF DATA: Capital, Labor, and Intermediate Inputs