Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 1 USA Solar Market Solar Market Business Management SS ‘12 Jesús Martínez Cantú

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 2 Agenda Overview (Key facts) Electricity Energy Sector Infrastructure Electricity Prices and Solar radiation Levelized Cost of Electricity Grid Parity Projection Political Framework Conclusion Solar Market conosurconsultores.com

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 3 Overview (Key facts) Federal constitutional republic (50 States and 1 Federal district) 9.8 million km^ 2 area (25 times Germany) and 312 million people ( 3 rd ) GDP 2011; US$ 15.1 trill. ( 1 st ), China US$ 7 trill. ( 2 nd ). (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur) Energy Consumption 2011; 97.5 quad. BTU  28.5 PWh (10^15) (1 st ), more than 7 times Germany consumption (*) Data 2010 wikipedia Total energy consumption increases 12 % by (0.5% per year) US EIA major_energy_sources_and_users.cfm enewable_electricity.cfm

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 4 Electricity Energy Sector infrastructure Differents sources to generate electricity  No national Grid to transmission 3 grids operating in 48 contiguous states, 1 grid in Alaska and 1 grid in Hawaii. In addition throughout the year consumption varies, therefore prices vary according location. /power_grid.cfm detail.cfm?id= (*) 2010

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 5 Electricity prices 2011 Avg Vs. Radiation (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 6 Levelized cost of Electricity Solar System Assumptions from RNEL 2011 study. (c-Si Modules) 25 % overnight capital cost reduction due modules price vs study. ts/ LCOE NREL simple calculator used. h_lcoe.html (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur)

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 7 Grid Parity is coming… (1 US$ = 0.79 Eur) Assuming 10 % system price reduction by learning curve in PV. Approx. yearly trend increases electricity price by 2.65 % Residential, 1.89% Industrial and 0.5 % Utility.

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 8 Political Framework Adoption of electric retail choice programs that allow end-use customers to buy electricity from competitive retail suppliers. State Incentives: California Solar Initiative. ( ) States Policies  SREC’s on states with Renewable Portfolio Standard. Federal Incentives: Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC). 30 % tax credit from renewable equipment detail.cfm?id=6250

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 9 Projection PV and CSP (Utility) df

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 10 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)Sunshot iniative Reducing Solar Technology Costs ▫ Increasing PV solar cell efficiency, ▫ Reducing production costs ▫ Opening new markets for solar energy Reducing Solar Grid Integration Costs ▫ Grid Planning ▫ Reliability Accelerating Deployment solar technologies

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 11 Conclusion US Solar Market is increasing ▫ Fast due approaching grid parity. ▫ RPS in states and federal incentives facilitate deployment. Potential to be biggest solar market in the world. (Resources and demand). If trends prevail the percentage of Solar plants generating electricity at utility-scale will be higher than 16 % as projected in 2035 by US EIA. ( Better estimation of LCOE should be customized to the location. (state characteristics, CP, more detailed overnight cost, wages, etc.)

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 12 laiaatienza.com

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar Market | Jesus Martínez 13 References EARLY2012&table=2-EARLY2012&region=1-0&cases=early2012-d121011b