NEW SOLAR MINIMUM AND THE MINI-ICE AGE OF THE 21 st CENTURY Ph.D. Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera Institute of Geophysics, UNAM, México The Sun sows again the foundation of science By placing itself in the center of climate change discussion

Using Wavelet Analysis We show that the Global Warming is associated to: “High” solar secular activity and Global Cooling is associated to “Low” solar activity

What does mean “High” or “Low” solar secular activity? (secular periodicity > 100-yrs)

Energy “DYNAMO SOLAR” (gray bars) Sunspot (continuous line) We calculated the energy of sunspot as a direct indicator of solar activity for each solar cycle

Energy (gray bars) Sunspot (dotted line) We calculated the power of sunspot as a direct indicator of solar activity for each solar cycle Power “DYNAMO SOLAR” (gray bars) Sunspot (continuous line)

Low Solar Secular Activity : Negative Power Anomalies High Solar Secular Activity : Positive Power Anomalies

High Solar Activity (Global Warming) Maunder Maximum Dalton Maximum Modern Maximum 11-yrs 60-yrs 120-yrs wavelet power spectrum

Low Solar Activity (Global Cooling) Maunder Minimum Dalton Minimum Modern Minimum Elsy Minimum

Maunder minimum [ ] DALTON MINIMUM (1790,1830) MODERN MINIMUM [1890,1930] ELSY MINIMUM [ ] MINI-ICE AGES period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system period of the solar secular activity

MAXIMA and MINIMA in the SOLAR SECULARES CYCLE (RECONSTRUCTION OF COSMIC RAYS USING NEURONAL NETWORK) Maunder minimum [ ] DALTON MINIMUM (1790,1830) MODERN MINIMUM [1890,1930] ELSY MINIMUM [ ]

Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp , 10. February Anders Moberg, Dmitry M. Sonechkin, Karin Holmgren Nina M. Datsenko & Wibjörn Karlén 240-yrs (de Vries or Suess cycle) 120-yrs(VMV-cycle) period of the solar secular activity period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system

Bard, E., G. Raisbeck, F. Yiou, and J. Jouzel Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides. TELLUS B, vol. 52 (3), pp yrs(VMV-cycle) 240-yrs (de Vries or Suess cycle) period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system period of the solar secular activity

WAVELET COHERENCE The wavelet-squared transform coherence is especially useful, when the two phenomena have a strong interaction [C. Torrence and P. Webster, J. Clim. 12, 2679–2690. (1999)].

The Wavelet Coherence spectra show the phase between the phenomena. The arrows at 0 o (horizontal right) indicate that both phenomena are in phase, and the arrows at 180 o (horizontal left) indicate that they are in anti-phase. It is very important to point out that these two cases imply a linear relation between the considered phenomena; any other angles indicate that the two phenomena have a non-linear relation and a rather complex one.

Irradiance (gray area) Temperature (continuous line) phase anti-phase complex 120-yrs(VMV-cycle)

Conclusions I) The solar activity secular minima periodicity is of 120-yrs and this is the sunspot series modulator. II ) The 120-yrs periodicity could possibly be one of the principal periodicities of magnetic solar activity.

III) The 120-yrs periodicity predict that the following solar secular minima, should be around yrs and yrs. IV) Our preliminary studies of the last 2000 years show close connection between the variation of the global maxima and minima periods of secular solar activity and warming and mini ice age occurred during this period.

V) Such a modulation of the terrestrial temperature may bring unexpected results and consequences to the climatic change in the 21st century that may result in a mini-Ice Age caused by the decrease in solar activity that would begin in 2010 and last about years.

and yet the Earth is cooling….