Operations center, NPS, Monterey, CA Driftsonde center, Driftsonde Balloon release, Hawaii Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers Guam Japan Taiwan Okinawa THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiment (TCS-08) 9 participating nations – Canada, China, U.K., France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, United States Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours – 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR 76 missions – 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR 7 airfields – Andersen AFB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AFB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan 11 tropical circulation systems – 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others

Firsts First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific –Launch from Hawaii –Dropsonde data retrieved and sent to GTS for use in operational numerical weather forecasting models First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over the western North Pacific flight operations in: –Cloud clusters –Developing tropical cyclones –Mature tropical cyclones –Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition First buoy drop in front of a WPAC TC –Two TCs –First time a category 5 TC passed over buoys dropped in its path

Firsts First operation of WC-130Js at 31,000 ft altitude except when penetrating a mature TC –Dropped sondes and AXBTs from high altitude –Timed with passage of polar-orbiting satellites for satellite intensity validation First four plane operation in a WPAC TC First systematic targeting operation in the WPAC –Comparison of several methods from a variety of operational and research organizations –Multiple aircraft –ECMWF/UKMO Data Targeting System (DTS) First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process –Multiple aircraft Airborne Doppler Radar In situ observations –land-based radar –Timed with satellite overpass

TCS-08 TC Structure and intensity changes T-PARC: Extratropical Transition, Downstream Impacts, Targeting for Improved Track Predictions

Experiments to study TC rapid intensification and concentric eye-wall cycles by C. C. Wu utilizing aircraft observations during the pre-recurvature period of TY Sinlaku

EXP 1003: Only Data Assimilated from the first flights into TY Sinlaku

Transformation Stages Re-intensification as a typhoon Extratropical Stage DOTSTAR, DLR FALCON WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon WC-130J, NRL P-3 DLR FALCON TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku Uncertainty in downstream development Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics 1200 UTC 15 SEP

Standard deviation of 500 hPa among ensemble members averaged between 40 o -60 o N Black dots = location of Sinlaku and ex-Sinlaku in individual members Red dot = location at time of Extratropical Transition Julia Keller, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany 1200 UTC 15 SEP TIGGE

Keller et al 2011 (GRL) Use of TIGGE to examine the ability of ensemble systems to represent forecast scenarios as defined by a fuzzy cluster analysis of the large-scale upper-level flow patterns associated with TY Sinlaku and Jangmi during T-PARC

Typhoon Sinlaku September 2008 Re-intensification September Sep / 0200 UTC 18 Sep / 0200 UTC 16 Sep / 1800 UTC Post Recurvature Structure Change and Re- intensification 1.Synoptic-scale processes facilitated the re- invigoration of deep convection 2.Mesoscale and convective-scale processes contributed to an increase in the vorticity of the TC, which resulted in the re-intensification of Sinlaku. A.Interactions between the tilted TC vortex and multiple mesoscale circulations B.The re-intensification of Sinlaku continued as multiple episodes of deep convection rotated cyclonically around and inward toward the TC center DOTSTAR, DLR FALCON WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon WC-130J, NRL P-3 DLR FALCON

17 September UTC Two regions of convection 3 rd convective episode linear region of deep convection east of the TC LLCC 2 nd convective episode broad region of lower reflectivity NE of the TC LLCC Mesoscale and convective-scale processes: The interaction between the tilted TC vortex and multiple mesoscale circulations within varying stages of convective development arrested the decay of Sinlaku following recurvature and initiated re-intensification of the system. Three regions of convection 1 st convective episode – 0730 UTC 16 September 2 nd convective episode – 1930 UTC 16 September 3 rd convective episode – 2330 UTC 16 September 1

WE Sinlaku CC / Convective Towers (>14 km) – Deep convection – Reflectivity Multiple towers with reflectivity > 35 dBZ at 12 km Base of reflectivity in the tower region increases to the east – Vorticity Deep towers of positive vorticity coincident with towers of high reflectivity; maximum between km Maxima associated with the Sinlaku LLCC tilts eastward with height into western tower of positive vorticity – Vertical Motion ~30 m s -1 Maximum between km – Convergence into the column through 10 km; divergence at upper-levels

Transformation Stages Re-intensification as a typhoon Extratropical Stage DOTSTAR, DLR FALCON WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon WC-130J, NRL P-3 DLR FALCON TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku Uncertainty in downstream development Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics

ELDORA reflectivity and horizontal winds as defined by the SAMURAI analysis package developed by Michael Bell. TC Structural characteristics are related to the forcing due to westerly vertical wind shear Annette Forster, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

Areal coverage of upward and downward motion in each quadrant of the storm Northwest SouthwestSoutheast Northeast Annette Forster, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

Transformation Stages Re-intensification as a typhoon Extratropical Stage DOTSTAR, DLR FALCON WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon WC-130J, NRL P-3 DLR FALCON TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku Uncertainty in downstream development Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics Final Stage of Extratropical Transition

SAMURAI Analysis with ELDORA, aircraft, and satellite data ECMWF Analysis (YOTC) used as background for SAMURAI Analysis Black line = NRL P-3 flight path, black arcs = NRL P-3 and WC-130J Dropwindsonde trajectories Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

Analysis of aircraft dropwindsonde data, satellite winds, and ELDORA winds with the background field defined by the ECMWF analysis as obtained from the YOTC database Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

ELDORA Reflectivity with SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds South North SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds and moist static energy Convective region (x = 125 km) Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

ELDORA Reflectivity with SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds South North SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds and moist static energy Convective region (x = 125 km) Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

TYPE Refereed Articles Conference papers and presentations, Technical Reports 6916 PhD Dissertations135 M.S. Theses426 T-PARC/TCS-08 Related Publications/Theses

Summary and Outlook Successful field campaign – Design – Execution – Data processing – QC – Distributed Data Archive ( PARC) Initial Results – Concentrated on results of targeted data experiments – Data denial experiments Improved forecast tracks during pre-recurvature periods Forecast improvements are sensitive to the type of aircraft observations (i.e., inner core, near-storm environment, remote sensitive area Forecast improvements are sensitive to the type of measurement (i.e., dropwindsonde, Doppler wind lidar). Most recent results are examining the relative impacts of targeted satellite data Meetings – International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (ITWC) March 2010 – International Workshop on Extratropical Transition (IWET) May 2012

Summary and Outlook Process studies – Tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes – Interaction with YOTC and TIGGE Physical processes Forecast Verification – Extratropical Transition Predictability of downstream impacts New data sets providing detailed examination of structural characteristics. Identification of the evolution to an extratropical cyclone Outlook – Link detailed observations of post recurvature structure to impacts on the predictability associated with downstream impacts and development of the extratropical cyclone. – Examination of structure and intensity changes – Relative roles of satellite and in situ observations relative to improved track forecasts.