Recruitment and Retention of High Quality Teachers: Some International Evidence Prof Peter. J. Dolton Royal Holloway, University of London & Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics World Bank South Asia Regional Conference on Education Quality New Delhi, India, October 24-26, 2007

Outline of Talk 1.Context: The Market Story 2.Aspects of Demand 3.The Supply of Teachers –Recruitment and Retention 4.Teacher’s Pay 5.Who Becomes a Teacher? 6.Incentives & Performance Related Pay. 7.Reflections on Teacher Training 8.Sideways Look at Teachers in India 9.Areas for Further Necessary Research.

1. The Market Story Assume : Demographically determined inelastic demand.

1. The Market Story Assume : Demographically determined inelastic demand. Government Budget Constraint.

1.The Market Story Assume : Demographically determined inelastic demand. Government Budget Constraint. Homogenous Supply & Government Sets Wages.

Some outputs are easier to observe than others!

2. Aspects of Demand Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population

The Percentage of teachers aged 50 years and over, lower secondary education

The age distribution of teachers in England (2000)

2. Aspects of Demand Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population Variation in Pupil/Teacher Ratios

Students/Teachers ratio 2001 DenmarkHungaryItaly Portugal NorwayIceland Sweeden Greece AustriaSpain Belgium USASwitzerNetherlandFinlandAustralia Czek Republic France Germany Uruguay New Zealand JordanUK Malaysia Ireland Argentina Tunisia Brazil Peru IndonesiaTurkeyKoreaChile Philippines Source: Education at a Glance, OECD (2003) Primary education Students/Teachers ratio 2000 by country

2. Aspects of Demand Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population Variation in Pupil/Teacher Ratios Variation in Teacher Hours Worked

2. Aspects of Demand Demographic Age Structure of Teacher population Variation in Pupil/Teacher Ratios Variation in Teacher Hours Worked Overall Market Position

Excess Demand of Teachers, by Sector in the UK, Teachers in service – Demand for teachers Source: Own calculations Based on the number of children of school age and the desired Pupil- teacher ratios

3. Aspects of Supply What is supply? Non- standard.

The elements of teacher supply Supply of Teachers Teacher Training Programme students Teachers in Service Re-Entrants New Entrants Leavers Retirement Non-Retirement Current Supply Potential Supply Pool of Inactive Teachers Pool of Recoverable Teachers Temporary Teachers

Cross-country mean % of upper secondary students attending schools where the principal reported that hiring fully qualified teachers is difficult, 2001

% of 15-year-old students enrolled in schools where principals report learning is hindered ‘to some extent’ or ‘a lot’ by a shortage/inadequacy of teachers:

% of upper secondary students attending schools that use the following methods to respond to teacher vacancies, as reported by school principals

4. Teacher’s Pay International dimension Senior /Junior pay teacher ratio Across time in one country- UK. Across a Lifetime – Relative decline.

Ratio of salary after 15 years of experience to GDP per capita, public institutions, lower secondary education, 1994 and 2001

UK Relative Teachers’ Wages Source: Own calculations HoughtonClegg

Age-Earning profile of Primary, Secondary School Teachers and an Alternative occupation, Males

5. Who Becomes a Teacher? –Huge literature on this topic – See my Handbook Chapter. –BUT we need more intergenerational studies.

The predicted probability of Graduates becoming a teacher across cohorts. Ind1 - Man, Arts, A-level=10, 2:1 degree, not in London

6. Incentives & Performance Related Pay. Problematic because: Multitasking Environment (Holmstrom-Milgram Incentives can induce counterproductive effects Multiple Principals Dolton et al book shows all the practical and econometric problems of PRP Lavy paper shows reward by pupil gain score can work.

‘Yes, it is pretty unfair. They should allow teachers time for lunch too.’

7. Reflections on Teacher Training Based on Lavy, Moreno, Vaillant Technological change is too fast for training methods. Teacher training institutions are too weak. Expenditure on Teacher CPD is too low 1% compared to 6% UNESCO. Teachers are by default responsible for their own training. Training is on the job and practical – hence difficult to articulate and systematize. Education Policy is a battlefield Are Teachers really Professionals – if so then States should not control so much.

‘To save democracy, is it? I have been hurling stones thinking it’s about teachers’ pay!’

8. Sideways Look at Teachers in India Teacher Truancy – Duflo Study Growing Private Sector – Kingdon Teacher Relative Earnings Teacher Incentives Teacher Training

9. Areas for Further Necessary Research. Teacher Quality What are costs of improving teacher quality? What are interactions between teacher unions and teacher quality. Relationship between accountability and teacher quality. Principal –Agent problem of partial observability.