1 National Electricity Shortage Response Plan Presentation to PPC on Minerals ad Energy March 2008

2 South Africa: Electricity Demand vs. Supply (Facts & Figures)

3 South Africa: 2006 vs Week-on-Week Peak Demand Year-on-Year Peak Growth = 4.90% (1 706 MW)

4 Declining Reserve Margin

5 7 Year Forecast of Capacity Margin Note that this does not take into account any Demand Side Interventions or Demand Market Participation or Interruptible Loads (Figures from study done early-2007)

6 Security of Supply Crisis (January 2008)

7 January 2008: Supply/Demand Situation Historic Target for Unplanned was 3% or 1 176MW (01/2008 average = 11%) After Load Shedding

8 What is driving the high level of unplanned outages:  Coal Quality (less power output from station)  Coal Quantity (the export price is so high that the miners prefer to export the coal and pay the associated penalties)  Running Plant too Hard which results in equipment failure such as boiler tube leaks Key Drivers: Unplanned Outages

9 System back into balance by:  Restoring a workable reserve margin, thereby,  Alleviating the strain on the generation assets and the primary energy supply chain, and,  Allowing “breathing space” for maintenance to be done. What has been achieved

10 GAP SUPPLY ►Build Plan ►Mitigation Plan RTS(’08/900MW)- Co-generation Medupi (2011)- Imports Ingula (2012)- Self generation OCGT (2009)- Standby generation CCGT- IPPs DEMAND ► Mitigation Plan DSM DMP Various Scenarios for growth and supply capacity DEMAND REDUCTION OPTIONS  Intensified DSM  Power Rationing/Power Conservation  Dramatically increase Notified Maximum Demand penalties  Prioritisation of new load  Load shedding  Rolling blackouts If Demand + Reserve Margin > Supply (Demand includes capacity & energy) Intervention Options

11 Supply Side Intervention Plan

12 SUPPLY SIDE INTERVENTIONS (Normal) *Projected Currently approved projects

13 Possible implementation of an additional 1 000MW of Gas-fired Power Plant within 12 months Co-generation, new target is 3 500MW, from 900MW previously Focus on the reduction of unplanned outages (maintenance practices) Focus on the improvement of coal quality and supply Introduction of 3 000MW of IPP Base-load by 2012 Supply Side Fast-tracking

14 SUPPLY SIDE INTERVENTIONS (Fast-tracked) *Projected

15 7 Year Forecast of Capacity Margin (After Power Conservation and Fast Track Supply Side Interventions) Note: Demand Side Management Impacts are not included

16 Demand Side Intervention Plan

17 Immediate (6 months) Medium Term (18 months) Long Term (more than 18 months) Demand Side Intervention Plan Timeframes

18 oPhased Demand Reduction 1.System Security Recovery/Load Shedding 2.Power Rationing – Fixed Scheduled Load Shedding (<4 Months) 3.Power Conservation Programme – Quota allocations (<24 months) oDemand Side Behavioural Change programs  Aggressive Energy Efficiency in Government and State-Owned Enterprises’ Buildings  Restrict Sale of Incandescent Lightbulbs  National Housing Specifications (Water Heating and Building Standards)  Solar Water Heating Programme oIntensive Consumer Awareness Campaign (proper Load Shedding communication as well as general energy savings) Demand Side Interventions (Immediate)

19 oResidential Time-of-Use Tariffs oResidential Cooking Load to Gas oTraffic Lights to Solar oPublic Lighting oPro-poor Cost Reflective Tariffs oEIA Fast-tracking Demand Side Interventions (Medium Term)

20 Demand Reduction Phasing (Power Conservation)

21 Demand Reduction Phasing

22 Power Conservation Programme Overall savings target  Target 10%  Constraint relief  Growth allowance Quota allocations (DTi/DME)  Designed to achieve overall target  Differentiated by customer class  Special 100% Penalty & Incentive scheme  Penalty energy rates for energy > quota  Cut-offs and/or “Name and Shame” for Repeat offenders  Special cases excluded from penalties, initially at least  Savings/technology incentives > overall target (only smaller consumers) Trading scheme  Unused portion of quota allocation  Only larger consumers (practical reasons)  Possible take-or-pay provisions Built-in flexibility  Modular roll-out possibilities  Adjust quotas, penalties etc. (changing needs) Estimated Yield  GWh per annum  ~3 500MW (75% Load Factor) Implementation Timeframe  02 April 2008 Inception  24 month timeframe

23 Penalty energy rates – for energy above quota –First month – 75 c/kWh (TOU differentiated where applicable) –Second month - +50% of above to max. of ~ 250 c/kWh –Disincentive – not to make money Persistent repeat offenders: –“Name and Shame” and/or Cut-offs Special cases excluded from penalties, initially at least –e.g. hospitals, traffic lights – to avoid disrupting essential services For smaller consumers: –Look at inclining block tariff structures as disincentive –DSM technology-based incentives or savings incentives (if savings > overall target) Baseline consumption period: Oct ’06 – Sep ’07 –Savings effort now will not influence allocation Power Conservation Programme Penalty and Incentive Scheme

24 Proposed Regulations

25 Requirements for water heating in commercial and residential buildings –Installation of an electric geyser that incorporates solar water heating in all new dwellings with a value exceeding R or greater than 300sqm in size. –Installation of additional geyser insulation in all new dwellings with a value exceeding R or greater than 300sqm in size. –These regulations in respect of water heating in commercial and residential buildings, will be in place not later than year –In addition, installation of an electric geyser that does not incorporate solar heating facility to office blocks, hostels, resorts and shopping complexes feeding from centralised water heating systems will be prohibited. –All electric geysers will be required to be fitted with a facility for the licensee to remotely control the supply of electricity to it. Proposed Energy Efficiency Regulations (1)

26 Prohibitions in respect of lighting –Use of incandescent lights –Lighting of unoccupied buildings especially after working hours –Lighting of streets and highways during broad day light –Disposal of lights that contain mercury in a manner which adversely impacts the environment Prohibitions in respect of space heating, ventilation and cooling in commercial and residential buildings, to be completed not later than the year 2010 –Heating, ventilation and cooling system without a facility for the licensee to remotely control its supply of electricity –A swimming pool drive and heating system without a facility for the licensee to remotely control its supply of Norms and Standards for reticulation services –All streets must be fitted with an energy efficient bulbs –A municipality may pass by-laws prohibiting any other activity in respect of energy efficiency complementing these regulations –End user or customer with monthly consumption of 500kWh and above must be on time of use tariff not later than the year 2010 Proposed Energy Efficiency Regulations (2)

27 Thank you