Climate forecast applications: “Let them eat information”

Source: Pittock and Salinger, 1982 Early Climate Change Scenarios for a 2X CO 2 based on GCM results for Southern Africa

Rainfall anomalies for Southeast Africa (after Hulme et al)

Research ( Source: Landman, 2005 ) INSTITUTE FOR SOIL, CLIMATE AND WATER INSTITUTE FOR SOIL, CLIMATE AND WATER Characterization and quantification of the natural resources Characterization and quantification of the natural resources Natural resources monitoring, auditing and impact assessment. Natural resources monitoring, auditing and impact assessment. Research and development for sustainable natural resource utilization Research and development for sustainable natural resource utilization Natural resources information technology and decision support systems Natural resources information technology and decision support systems International projects and expert International projects and expert Research and development for remediation of negative anthropogenic impacts on the natural resources Research and development for remediation of negative anthropogenic impacts on the natural resources PLANT PROTECTION RESEARCH INSTITUTE PLANT PROTECTION RESEARCH INSTITUTE Integrated Plant Pest Management Integrated Plant Pest Management Integrated Plant Disease Management Integrated Plant Disease Management Integrated Weed Management Integrated Weed Management Bio-Systematics and National Collection Bio-Systematics and National Collection Pesticide Science Pesticide Science Use of Beneficial Organisms and Other Innovation Use of Beneficial Organisms and Other Innovation International Convention Support and Strategic National Capacity International Convention Support and Strategic National Capacity

Some applications of forecasts Commercial farmers and various sectors – e.g. planners, nature conservation, water users

Some forecast applications: Forecast standardised JFM rainfall anomalies (red line) vs observed rainfall standardised anomalies (blue line) for four arid parks of SANParks, South Africa (Landman, 2005, SAWS).

Forecast standardised DJF streamflow anomalies (red line) vs observed streamflow standardised anomalies (blue line) in the Vaal River catchment (Landman, 2005, SAWS).

Other potential users Farmers – commercial and small- scale

Examples of Forecast use by farmers in N West Province, South Africa ( Hudson, 2003 ) Farmers Responding Value of Climatic Forecasts Percent of respondents (Number of respondents) Not at allSomewhatValuableVeryTotal Commercial24 (6) 56 (14) 4 (1) 16 (4) 100 (25) Communal31 (11) 14 (5) 37 (13) 17 (6) 100 (35) Total Respondents (n=60) 28 (17) 32 (19) 23 (14) 17 (10) 100 (60)

Disconnect between science - user Traditional science USER COMMUNITY

Communication: Forecast Probabilities A 33.3% N 33.3% B 33.3%

Communication: Forecast Probabilities A 16.7% N 33.3% B 50%

Forecast communication Some of the wider issues

Forecasts as a tool to enhance adaptive capacity: ‘wider context’ Land tenure – land not owned, share cropped therefore negotiated decision- making environment Land tenure – land not owned, share cropped therefore negotiated decision- making environment Role of subsidies – policy environment shaping farmer decisions Role of subsidies – policy environment shaping farmer decisions Gender issues – who is farming etc Gender issues – who is farming etc Ag extension – no longer the only ‘target audience’ Ag extension – no longer the only ‘target audience’

Approaches to bridge the disconnect Traditional science Improved Multi- Directional Dialogue Institutional changes

Going beyond business as usual – forecasts and users Rethinking the possible role and requirements for effective uptake of seasonal forecasts

Regional Crisis Series of episodic shocks Floods Drought 2001/2002 harvest failure Late regional drought – region possibly need more than 2 million tons of food in 2006 ( Business Day, 10/05/05 ) Maize growing area Area of extended drought

Regional crisis Anticipated population numbers and food aid needs between June 2002 and March 2003, based on WFP/FAO assessments done during April and May 2002 (USAID, 2002c)

Humanitarian efforts Save the Children Save the Children Oxfam Oxfam Care Care Regional Vulnerability Assessment Committees (RVACS) Regional Vulnerability Assessment Committees (RVACS)

Current potential use of forecasts - ‘VACUUM’ approach Institutional perspective (Policies and state apparatus) Transferring data into understandable formats, transferring this information to the farmer Understanding the national magnitude of risk Forecast Producer Perspective Perception of users Problem understanding the ‘forecast’ Have unrealistic demands of forecasts Need to work on ‘making’ forecasts more useful and ‘attractive’ Possible outcomes -Mitigatory measures - Integrated plans of action - Defining best practise for the future? -Where does this responsibility lie?

A possible approach e.g. Sustainable Livelihoods (Carney, 1999 and others)

Understanding food insecurity (e.g. FIVIMS, South Africa) Food insecurity as uncertainty When access to food is insecure. Food insecurity as outcome When actual food deprivation has already set in

Contrast of single strategy and dynamic approaches (Blench, 2003) OUTCOME Single Strategy Existing Conditions Dynamic Strategy Existing Conditions PredictionAction Event Action Event Action Event OUTCOMES

December 2004 first quarterly climate preparedness meeting, Suid Bokkeveld, South Africa Heiveld Co-op senior member describing August – December 2004 climate and agriculture conditions; and leading discussion about coming quarterly & longer term strategies. Discussion follows presentation and critique of updated seasonal forecast, and of the agricultural advisory (both national scale products; here being evaluated and discussed at the sub-district scale). (source: Archer, E.R.M., Oettlé, N.M., Louw, R ) ‘is the product less important than the process?’

Alternative Typologies of Early Warning Systems (Source: Buchanan-Smith et al). Famine orientated Famine orientated Food production Food production Macro-centralised Macro-centralised National focus National focus Top-down Top-down Data centered Data centered Food-aid orientated Food-aid orientated Food-security Food-security Access to food Access to food Micro-decentralised Micro-decentralised Local focus Local focus Bottom-up Bottom-up Sustainable/access to food Sustainable/access to food Conventional Alternative System

Alternative Typologies of Forecast Systems (adapted from Vogel and O’Brien, 2003) Producer focus Producer focus Focus on communication as key issue (e.g. probabilistic and deterministic forecasts) Focus on communication as key issue (e.g. probabilistic and deterministic forecasts) Some focus on user environment Some focus on user environment Some focus on how end- users manage risk Some focus on how end- users manage risk Some focus on how end- users cope and adapt to changing environments. Some focus on how end- users cope and adapt to changing environments. User focus User focus Focus on user environment Focus on user environment Focus on ‘widening the discourse’ Focus on ‘widening the discourse’ Focus on obtaining data from end users about their risk environment Focus on obtaining data from end users about their risk environment Serious reflection on ‘institutional issues’, ‘degree of fit’ (e.g. Orlove and Tosteson, 1999). Serious reflection on ‘institutional issues’, ‘degree of fit’ (e.g. Orlove and Tosteson, 1999). Conventional Alternative Approach

Forecasts – moving to integration? Institutional perspective (Policies and state apparatus) Understanding clients and their ‘risk management’ strategies Understanding the user’s risk environment ‘User perspective’ Forecasters’ perspective Do I understand the info requirements of the end user? In what ‘risk environment’ is my client based? How can we create a dialogue to collectively reduce risk? Possible outcomes -Enhanced risk-reduction measures - Integrated plans of action - Design of ‘more appropriate institutional’ processes for effective use of forecasts.

Suggested Alternatives Horizontal Integration Vertical Integration Science and development Engagement with a variety of users Pursuit of excellence in science Institutional design Capacity Building Opening of ‘new spaces’ for dialogue