The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model A descriptive generalization that depicts most countries’ development from a pre-industrial society to a post-industrial society and beyond Describes changing levels of fertility and mortality as well as general levels of population growth Based on known facts rather than general assumption

The Demographic Transition Model As we go through, consider these questions: What countries might be in each stage? Where are the core, periphery and semi-periphery countries?

Stage 1: High Stationary / Pre-Transition High birth rate and high death rate Two rates are nearly equal Death rate fluctuating likely due to war and disease Involves a low-income agricultural economy Children are less of an expense and more of an asset Population growth is very slow Population resides in rural areas Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 2: Expanding Stage / Early Transition Birth rate remains high Death rate begins to fall rapidly Results in population explosion Early industrialization paralleled with medical and health advances Infant mortality declines, life expectancy increases This stage characterizes nations in early development Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage / Late Transition Principle feature is a declining birth rate which is the result of voluntary decisions to reduce family size and the availability of contraceptives Increased standards of living Rate of Natural Increase is falling The cost of children is increasing Medical advancements continuing to decrease death rate Population still increasing relatively quickly Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 4: Low Growth Stage / Post Transition Birth rate remains slightly above the death rate Rate of Natural Increase is low Population growth is low and stable Women entering workforce, couples postponing families while educational goals are sought Population viewed as ‘greying’ or ‘aging’ Canada would fall into this stage of the DTM Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining The population is declining Characterizes countries with present and predicted negative population growth rates such as Russia and many European countries Death rate begins to exceed the birth rate Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Relationship to Population Pyramids By analyzing population pyramids, one can decipher fairly accurately the stage of the demographic transition model that that particular country is in and vice versa In combination with each other and if the model holds true, a countries future growth and development can be predicted Shortcoming of the Demographic Transition Model: does not provide a bold hypothesis about future growth or decline

Stage 1: Pre-Transition and Unstable

Stage 2: Expanding / Early Transition

Stage 3: Stable / Late Transition

Stage 4: Stationary / Post-Transition

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining

Statistics (2007) Canada: BR 11; DR 7; IMR 5; LE 80; DT 84.3 United States: BR 14; DR 8; IMR 7; LE 78; DT 79.2 China: BR 12; DR 7; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 111.28 India: BR 24; DR 8; IMR 58; LE 64; DT 44.35 Indonesia: BR 21; DR 7; IMR 34; LE 69; DT 59.57 Brazil: BR 21; DR 6; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 57 Mexico: BR 21; DR 5; IMR 21; LE 75; DT 61.29 United Arab Emirates: BR 17; DR 2; IMR 9; LE 79; DT 18.26 Australia: BR 13; DR 6; IMR 5; LE 81; DT 57.33 Afghanistan: BR 47; DR 21; IMR 166; LE 42; DT 26.65