Integration of V&A Analysis Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Asia and Pacific Region Jakarta, Indonesia, 20 March, 2006 Integration of V&A Analysis by Arthur W. Rolle Full references can be found in Chapter 11, Bibliography, of the Handbook.

Outline General points Integration of results Cross sector and multi-sector integration Setting priorities Vulnerability Adaptation Examples of Adaptation Integration Benefit-cost Analysis Conclusions

National Communications Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should develop and publish their national communications. Under the new guidelines (decision 17/CP.8), Parties should communicate to the COP a general description of programs containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, etc.

Reporting Requirements The following categories of impacts/vulnerability are expected to be reported: agriculture, tourism, health, forests, water resources, infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions, ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries and the economy.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation, to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)] Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II]

After vulnerability and adaptation analyses- What’s next? The interest should now be on incorporating initiatives, measures, strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change into other, existing policies, programs, resource management structures, disaster preparedness program, livelihood enhancement activities, and other sustainable development initiatives.

WHY? It is unrealistic to expect special policy initiatives to deal with climate change adaptation by itself, especially when so many of the suggested adaptations (drought planning, coastal infrastructure planning, flood preparedness, early warning, livelihood enhancement, etc) were being addressed in other policies or programs.

Why is Integration Important? Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect another Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly Others just indirectly Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect of climate change in another sector In addition, integration is necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations Integration is needed to identify and examine effects of cross-sector interactions. It can also be necessary to rank vulnerabilities.

Main Types of Integration of Results Cross-sector integration Link related sectors Multisector Economy or system wide Integrated assessment models Economic models The first bullet applies to sectors that are related to each other, such as water resources and irrigated agriculture. The second bullet applies to many sectors, many of which may not be related to each other.

Some Integrated Assessment Models IMAGE ICLIPS CLIMPACTS MIASMA

Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate change In one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture Point is about importance of integrated study of related sectors. In this study the impact of reduction in water supplies more than offset the potential gain to agriculture from change in climate alone. In other words, if water supplies to agriculture had not been reduced, agriculture would have gained.

Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology WATBAL Streamflow PET SCENARIOS GCM CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RES Crop water demand WEAP Evaluation Planning CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad. The figure is modified from Rosenzweig et al., 2004. This is an example of cross-sectoral integration that is covered in the training materials. Both water resources and agriculture address use of WEAP and CROPWAT to facilitate integrated analysis of climate change impacts on these two sectors. The integrated impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources, with a focus on demand and supply of water for irrigation, are examined using the modeling framework in the figure. Climate change scenarios are used to estimate changes in streamflow (runoff), crop yields, and water demand by crops. WATBAL estimates streamflow, CERES estimates crop yields and water demand, and CROPWAT uses CERES estimates of crop water needs to estimate regional irrigation. WEAP considers changes in baseline water demand through socioeconomic changes. It then integrates that with climate change induced changes in supply and demand to assess the supply demand balance and availability of water for irrigation. The technique has been applied to examine major crop growing regions of the world. More information is available at: Sources: Rosenzweig et al., 2004; Strzepek et al., 1999. CROPWAT Regional irrigation

Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline (1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990) This is an example using a single model to integrate related sectors across part of an economy. As opposed to linking models that were built separately, these integrated models were built to analyze multiple sectors and interactions between them. The Egyptian Agricultural Sectoral Model (EASM) examines how changes in water supplies, available land, and crop yields would affect agricultural production in Egypt (Yates and Strzepek, 1998). Egyptian agricultural production would be affected by direct effects of climate change on crop yields and demand for irrigation and indirectly affected by changes in water supply (flow of the Nile) and arable land (sea level rise inundating agricultural lands in the Nile Delta). The analysis found that change in water supply could have a much greater impact on agricultural production than change in crop yields or availability of land. The percentages are percentage increases over 1990. Meant for illustrative purposes.

Multi-sector Integration Modeling

IMAGE Model The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) is an integrated, dynamic model that examines consequences of socioeconomic changes (e.g., population growth and economic and technological development) on land use, energy use, emissions, climate, sea-level rise, ecosystems and food security. The model can be linked to models of water availability and land degradation. The model can be run at the global level (atmospheric CO2 concentration), regional level (17 individual world regions), and local level (land and land use on a 50 by 50 km grid). (Source: http://arch.rivm.nl/ieweb/ieweb/index.html). The main components of IMAGE are: The energy system Terrestrial land use, including natural ecosystems such as forests, and agriculture, including cropping and grazing Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. IMAGE contains many submodels, e.g., on terrestrial vegetation productivity, agriculture productivity. It’s climate model is based on MAGICC and uses pattern scaling to estimate regional climate changes. IMAGE is a widely available integrated assessment model. Such models include emissions of GHGs, change in climate and impacts. So, they cover more than the models described earlier (which take climate change as a given.) IMAGE can be obtained at http://arch.rivm.nl/image/.

Regional/National Economic Models Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with non-market impacts Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models Require much data Can be expensive Can be complex Communication of assumptions can be a challenge Regional or national economic models model all sectors of an economy. They are typically used to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on an entire economy. There can be feedback effects. Building sea walls to respond to sea level rise can drive up the cost of labor and concrete. This could hurt other sectors. Economic models might capture such relationships.

An Example of a Regional Model This is an example of a regional economic model. Source: Regional Economic Models, 2004. (www.remi.com). These models are typically developed at a national level. Such models are complex and can be expensive to apply.

A More “Simple” Approach Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple end points Impacts may be measured with different metrics Need to account for many sectors Does not capture sectoral interactions This approach will generally be much easier for analysts to apply. They can simply compare individual sector results. Put all the results in a table. Try to use a common metric. Even if one cannot be used, just displaying results side by side can be insightful. Note that this is just comparing sectoral results, not examining interactions and feedbacks.

Estimates of Damages for India Sector Damages ($ billions) Agriculture -53.2 Forestry +0.1 Energy -21.9 Water -$1.2 Coastal Resources Here is an example of a side by side comparison of sectoral results. Impacts for each sector were estimated separately; sectors were not integrated; nor was an model of the entire economy used. The estimates were not developed based on analysis in India, but are extrapolations from estimates of impacts in OECD countries. The results should be treated as purely illustrative. Source: Robert Mendelsohn, Yale University, personal communication. Based on Mendelsohn et al., 2000.

Can Also Measure Number of People Affected “Millions at Risk” study did this Global burden of disease Different metrics can be used. One is the number of people who could be affected by climate change.

Millions at Risk Study This figure is from the Millions at Risk study. The graph display how many hundreds of millions of people are estimated to be affected by climate change impacts on individual sectors. The time, the decade of the 2080s, is fixed. The magnitude of climate change, expressed as increase in global mean temperature, varies. Here, one can see how number of people at risk changes with increasing magnitude of climate change. Source: Parry et al., 2001.

At a Minimum Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts If crops can be examined, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production This is what should be done at a minimum.

Integration through Setting Priorities Vulnerability Adaptation This presentation addresses ways national communications present findings.

Prioritization of Vulnerabilities It can be quite useful for Focusing adaptation measures Monitoring Adaptation

Examples of Adaptation Integration Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA) Integration of adaptation into national policies dealing with risk management and into their Environment Impact Assessment procedures. Mozambique (World Bank) Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks into Action Plan for Poverty Reduction Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA) Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into sustainable development planning

Example of Adaptation Integration China (ADB, World Bank) helping poor farmers adapt to drought conditions- government undertook integrated ecosystems management-house-level eco-farming integrated renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand and providing forage.

Process is as Important as Outcome This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise Need to include stakeholders and policy makers The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

NAPA Process The NAPA process includes stakeholders in integration and interpretation of vulnerability and adaptation.

Adaptation Policy Framework Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 System/ Region/ Hazard Social impacts Economic impacts Environmental impacts Political impacts Ranking A   B C The Adaptation Policy Framework has a matrix to rank systems, regions, or hazards. The columns are suggestions; users can put in what is most meaningful. Source: Bo Lim, United Nations Development Programme, personal communication.

OECD Method OECD ranked vulnerabilities based on certainty of impact, timing (how soon impacts could happen), severity of the impact, and importance of the resource. Qualitative scoring is used. Whatever is used, transparency of the process is important.

Ranking Adaptations Screening Multicriteria assessment Benefit-cost analysis

Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua Source: Mizina et al., 1999.

Multicriteria Assessment Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score A 3 2 7 B 4 10 C 5 1 9 Hypothetical example of a multicriteria assessment. Criteria are arbitrary. Scores are given on a 1-5 scale and added without weighting in the final column. Weights can be applied to columns to reflect relative importance of criteria.

Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) analyzes how well adaptation options perform under different climate change scenarios (in this case current climate, GFDL and two arbitrary scenarios) evaluated against different objectives. Scoring is on a 1 to 5 scale. Weights can be applied to criteria. Results from different climate change scenarios can be simply summed or weighted based on perceived probability of outcome (or importance of current climate relative to possible future climates). Source: Mizina et al., 1999.

Ranking Based on Scenario From a project in Hermosillo, Mexico (Eakin et al., In press). Stakeholders identified adaptation options to address potential climate change impacts on water resources. “Culture of water” involved educated consumers on using water efficiently. “Capture runoff” means capturing runoff during extreme precipitation events and injecting in underground for future use. “Use of different building materials” would reduce space cooling demands, thus reducing water use. The ranking changes if hotter and drier conditions are assumed, but are the same for current climate and hotter and wetter.

Benefit-Cost Analysis Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs Monetary values often used Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties Difficulty: requires much data and analysis

BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati From a project by Stratus Consulting for the World Bank (Stratus Consulting, 2001). Both damages and adaptation costs were estimated. In both cases, sea walls have a positive net benefit.

What to Use From UNFCCC, 2002, Figure 1.

Conclusions Integration is important to at least identify related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be surprises Integration can also be useful for examining total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities

Conclusions There should be involvement of local stakeholders, the private sector, individuals, the research community and different levels of government. Awareness raising and capacity building also essential.