Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis: Challenges Ahead and Statistical Initiatives at the IMF Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis: Challenges Ahead and Statistical Initiatives at the IMF Alfredo M. Leone Deputy Director, Statistics Department Meeting of the OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Expert Group (STESEG) Paris, September 10-11, 2009 Paris, September 10-11, 2009

2 Two Key Issues Highlighted by the Current Crisis The integration of economies and markets, as evidenced by the financial crisis spreading worldwide. The integration of economies and markets, as evidenced by the financial crisis spreading worldwide. The growth of systemically important global financial institutions (SIGFIs), which spread across many markets worldwide. The growth of systemically important global financial institutions (SIGFIs), which spread across many markets worldwide.

3 Key Statistical Implications of the Current Crisis The critical importance of relevant statistics that are timely, consistent, and comparable across countries. The critical importance of relevant statistics that are timely, consistent, and comparable across countries. Additional statistical needs for financial stability analysis. Additional statistical needs for financial stability analysis. The difficulty, and the importance, of sound indicators of the degree and location of leverage or excessive risk- taking. The difficulty, and the importance, of sound indicators of the degree and location of leverage or excessive risk- taking. The need to improve the communication of official statistics. The need to improve the communication of official statistics.

4 Macroeconomic Statistics: Challenges Ahead Five key areas: Five key areas: Sectoral balance sheet data Sectoral balance sheet data Improving availability, timeliness, frequency, and coverage of sectoral assets and liabilities Improving availability, timeliness, frequency, and coverage of sectoral assets and liabilities Public sector Public sector Accounting for government intervention in response to the crisis (including contingent liabilities) Accounting for government intervention in response to the crisis (including contingent liabilities) Ultimate risk and credit risk transfer Ultimate risk and credit risk transfer Capturing assets and liabilities of special purpose entities and off-balance sheet positions Capturing assets and liabilities of special purpose entities and off-balance sheet positions Housing markets Housing markets Improving availability of housing-related data and making data cross-country comparable Improving availability of housing-related data and making data cross-country comparable Macroprudential risks Macroprudential risks Improving indicators of financial soundness, including measures of leverage and liquidity Improving indicators of financial soundness, including measures of leverage and liquidity

5 A Balance Sheet Approach’s View of the Gaps Creditor CreditorDebtor Central Bank General Government Other Dep. Corporations Other Finan. Corporations Non-financial Corporations Other Residents Nonresidents I. Central Bank Total Liabilities Short-term Short-term Domestic Curr Domestic Curr Foreign Curr Foreign Curr M-& Long-term M-& Long-term Domestic Curr Domestic Curr Foreign Curr Foreign Curr Equity EquitySRF Central Bank Liabilities SRF SRF SRF SRF SRF IIPCPIS II. General Gov. SRF: Central Bank Assets SRF: ODCs Assets SRF: OFCs Assets IIPQEDS III. Other Dep. Corporations (ODCs) SRF: Central Bank Assets SRF: ODCs Liabilities IIP/QEDS IV. Other Finan. Corporations (OFCs) SRF: Central Bank Assets SRF: OFCs Liab. SRF: OFCs Liabilities SRF: OFCs Liab SRF: OFCs Liabilities IIP/QEDS V. Nonfinancial Corporations (NFs) SRF: Central Bank Asset SRF: ODCs Assets SRF: OFCs Assets IIPQEDSJEDH VI. Other Residents SRF : Central Bank Assets SRF: ODCs Assets SRF: OFCs Assets IIPCPIS Nonresidents SRF: Central Bank Assets IIP/CPISIIPCPIS SRF: ODCs Assets IIPCPIS SRF: OFCs Assets IIP/CPISIIPCPISIIPCPIS Incomplete N/A Off-Balance N/A Sheet Items Limited country coverage Limited country coverage Limited country coverage Limited country coverage Limited country coverage Limited country coverage

6 Data Gaps Timeliness (reporting/disseminating lags) Timeliness (reporting/disseminating lags) Frequency (low periodicity of data) Frequency (low periodicity of data) Coverage Coverage Country coverage Country coverage Off-balance sheet positions and special purpose vehicles (ultimate risk) Off-balance sheet positions and special purpose vehicles (ultimate risk) Shadow financial system Shadow financial system Exposures to complex structured products (credit risk transfer) Exposures to complex structured products (credit risk transfer) Cross-border counterparty exposures Cross-border counterparty exposures Definition/coverage of government sector Definition/coverage of government sector Nonfinancial corporate and households sectors Nonfinancial corporate and households sectors Remaining maturity of outstanding liabilities Remaining maturity of outstanding liabilities Nonfinancial assets (housing-related data) Nonfinancial assets (housing-related data)

7 New Initiatives (1) Addressing data gaps: Addressing data gaps: Establishment of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics, IAG (2008) Establishment of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics, IAG (2008) BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (Chair), OECD, UN, WB BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (Chair), OECD, UN, WB Coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data collection Coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data collection G-20 Working Group on Reinforcing International Co-operation and Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets G-20 Working Group on Reinforcing International Co-operation and Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets Asked the IMF and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to explore gaps and provide proposals to address them to the next meeting of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (late 2009) Asked the IMF and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to explore gaps and provide proposals to address them to the next meeting of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (late 2009) IMFC (IMF Governing Body) welcomed the work of the IMF and FSB to provide better indicators of systemic risks and address data gaps IMFC (IMF Governing Body) welcomed the work of the IMF and FSB to provide better indicators of systemic risks and address data gaps

8 New Initiatives (2) Improving communication of official statistics Improving communication of official statistics IAG launched common public online website (April 2009): the Principal Global Indicators which displays for G-20 economies: IAG launched common public online website (April 2009): the Principal Global Indicators which displays for G-20 economies: Predetermined tables of statistics Predetermined tables of statistics Cross-country datasets Cross-country datasets Links to national websites of central banks, regulatory agencies, and statistical offices Links to national websites of central banks, regulatory agencies, and statistical offices Links to the SDDS National Summary page Links to the SDDS National Summary page Links to websites of the IAG agencies Links to websites of the IAG agencies

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10 Statistical Initiatives at the IMF (1) Further implementation of standardized report forms (SRFs) to enhance the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA): Further implementation of standardized report forms (SRFs) to enhance the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA): Assistance to countries, including G-20 economies, in the adoption of SRFs, leading to inclusion of SRF-based monetary data for more countries in the International Financial Statistics. Assistance to countries, including G-20 economies, in the adoption of SRFs, leading to inclusion of SRF-based monetary data for more countries in the International Financial Statistics. More comprehensive coverage of depository institutions than is currently the case. More comprehensive coverage of depository institutions than is currently the case. Improving reporting data for other financial corporations (OFCs), a sector widely held responsible for a leading role in many countries in the current financial crisis. Improving reporting data for other financial corporations (OFCs), a sector widely held responsible for a leading role in many countries in the current financial crisis. At the moment, the number of countries reporting data on OFCs is relatively small, about 30 out of 115 SRF- reporting countries. At the moment, the number of countries reporting data on OFCs is relatively small, about 30 out of 115 SRF- reporting countries.

11 Statistical Initiatives at the IMF (2) Regular compilation and dissemination of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), a complement to the BSA in enhancing vulnerability and financial stability analysis Regular compilation and dissemination of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), a complement to the BSA in enhancing vulnerability and financial stability analysis FSIs include indicators of the health of entire sectors of financial institutions, but also of the counterpart corporate and household sectors, and of relevant markets. FSIs include indicators of the health of entire sectors of financial institutions, but also of the counterpart corporate and household sectors, and of relevant markets. FSIs, conceived as a new area of statistics— macroprudential statistics—aims to fill the gap between macroeconomic statistics and micro- prudential data. FSIs, conceived as a new area of statistics— macroprudential statistics—aims to fill the gap between macroeconomic statistics and micro- prudential data.

12 Statistical Initiatives at the IMF (3) Development of a conceptual framework for the compilation and presentation of debt securities (issuance and holdings) with the BIS, ECB, and the WB (Working Group on Securities Databases) Development of a conceptual framework for the compilation and presentation of debt securities (issuance and holdings) with the BIS, ECB, and the WB (Working Group on Securities Databases) Preparation of a Handbook on Securities Statistics Preparation of a Handbook on Securities Statistics In part one of the Handbook, the conceptual framework covers position and flow statistics on debt securities issues. In part one of the Handbook, the conceptual framework covers position and flow statistics on debt securities issues. Part two, in preparation, will focus on debt securities holdings. Part two, in preparation, will focus on debt securities holdings.

13 Statistical Initiatives at the IMF (4) Promotion of high-frequency (quarterly) general government sector data on a harmonized basis Promotion of high-frequency (quarterly) general government sector data on a harmonized basis Increasing levels of deficits and debts as a result of the crisis are generating increasing interest in fiscal data over the next years. Increasing levels of deficits and debts as a result of the crisis are generating increasing interest in fiscal data over the next years. STA will also continue working to raise awareness for data quality in GFS to ensure proper definitions and facilitate country comparability. STA will also continue working to raise awareness for data quality in GFS to ensure proper definitions and facilitate country comparability.

14 Statistical Initiatives at the IMF (5) Development of Public Sector Debt Guide for the collection and dissemination of public sector debt statistics. Development of Public Sector Debt Guide for the collection and dissemination of public sector debt statistics. Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS) project: Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS) project: Proceed with a survey to improve the quality of Foreign Direct Investment data at global and bilateral levels. Proceed with a survey to improve the quality of Foreign Direct Investment data at global and bilateral levels. Establish a comprehensive database of direct investment positions (as of the end of 2009), disaggregated by instrument (equity and debt) and by counterpart economy of the immediate investor. Establish a comprehensive database of direct investment positions (as of the end of 2009), disaggregated by instrument (equity and debt) and by counterpart economy of the immediate investor. More than 130 economies have already expressed an interest in participating in the survey. More than 130 economies have already expressed an interest in participating in the survey.

15 Concluding Remarks History has demonstrated that crises create new demands for financial and economic data History has demonstrated that crises create new demands for financial and economic data this crisis is no different this crisis is no different Work is needed along two main two tracks: Work is needed along two main two tracks: making data more accessible and timely; and making data more accessible and timely; and addressing new data needs arising from the crisis. addressing new data needs arising from the crisis. International co-operation and coordination is key to achieve success. International co-operation and coordination is key to achieve success.