National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 February 11, 2011 Climate Services Program Managers Meeting

2 Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center National Hurricane Center

3 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) NCEP Feedback - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models Central Guidance Central Guidance Local Offices Local Offices

4 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

FTE 26 FTE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Tropical Weather Guidance and Forecasts

EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed NHCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 6

7 What Does NCEP Do? -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings 7

8 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions

9 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation

10 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 10 Regional DA Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% 3.5B Obs/Day

Land Ocean Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers Atmosphere Cryosphere Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models 11

Computing Capability Number of Hits (Millions) Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page “reliable, timely and accurate” Transition to IBM Power 6 complete –Declared operational August 12, 2009 –73.1 trillion calculations/sec –Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 –156 POWER6 32-way nodes –4,992 processors –20 terabytes of memory –330 terabytes of disk space –3.5 billion observations/day –27.8 million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV –Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes –Web access to models as they run on the CCS 2010

Example of Forecast Metric 13

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Record Scores Record Improvement

Day at which forecast loses useful skill (AC=0.6) N. Hemisphere 500hPa height calendar year means Forecast day 8.02d

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(preliminary)

20 Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System (EUROSIP) Entering the JPSS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Hybrid vertical coordinate –Coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

AttributeOperational ConfigurationQ2FY11 Configuration Analysis Resolution200 km38 km Atmosphere model1995: 200 km/28 levels Humidity based clouds 100 km/64 levels Variable CO2 AER SW & LW radiation Prognostic clouds & liquid water Retuned mountain blocking Convective gravity wave drag Ocean modelMOM-3: 60N-65S 1/3 x 1 deg. Assim depth 750 m MOM-4 fully global ¼ x ½ deg. Assim depth 4737 m Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation 2-level LSM No separate land data assim 4 level Noah model GLDAS driven by obs precip Sea iceClimatologyDaily analysis and Prognostic sea ice CouplingDaily30 minutes Data assimilationRetrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background Reforecasts15/month seasonal output25/month (seasonal) 124/month (week 3-6) Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q2FY11

22 National Environmental Modeling System FY11; Q3 12 km 4 km 6 km 3 km 1.5 km 1.33 km Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)  NonHydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (NMMB) -- Physics retuned for NMMB -- Additional data sets: Windsat, ASCAT, ACARS humidity, NOAA-19 (HIRS and AMSU-A), IASI radiances, AQUA (AMSU-A), GPS (radio occultation) Parent (12 km) – 84 hrs Children (6, 4 & 3 km) – 60 hrs IMET (1.5 & 1.33 km) – 36 hrs

23 EUROSIP Update MOU signed in July 2010 to include NCEP as EUROSIP partner (along with ECMWF, Meteo- France, UKMet) The EUROSIP hindcast data files have been downloaded to computers VAPOR and STRATUS (in restricted access directories) CPC has FY11 milestone to develop and test a seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast tool that combines CFS and EUROSIP 23

Ecosystem Prediction 24 Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on August 17, 2007 Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 3-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay Generated since 2002 Important for water management and recreational purposes * Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay Current Demonstration Ready for Transition*

Climate and Health in Africa Collaborate with NMHS Burkina Faso on predicting meningitis outbreaks –Target countries: Burkina Faso, Niger –Preliminary results suggest NCEP reanalysis can be used to predict epidemic outbreaks Collaborate with UMD on predicting water-borne diseases –Target countries: Angola, Cameroon, Mozambique, Senegal –Preliminary results suggest role of SST and rainfall in triggering an epidemic disease –Rainfall increase of 277 mm in 7 days, Aug 2005 –Cholera outbreak peaks about 30 days later. Observed and Predicted Meningitis Incidence Rate in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina Faso Base Period: Observed rainfall (blue) and cholera data (red) Case of Dakar, Senegal Yaka et al., 2008 Constantin & Thiaw, in progress 25

26 Summary NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Continually improving collaborative forecasts – especially for extreme events –Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery –Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services with national and international communities 26

Appendix 27

The developer stopped work in December 2008 when NCWCP construction was 80% complete. In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government. This claim was dismissed without prejudice in August In October 2010, the developer filed an appeal; resolution of this appeal is pending. In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court. In response, the court appointed a “Receiver” to complete the project. In November 2010, the court approved the Receiver’s plan and granted the receiver permission to resume construction. In December 2010, the Receiver filed a motion to petition the Federal Court to transfer the pending Federal appeal to the County Court. Once transferred, the Receiver can ask that the claim be dismissed with prejudice, after which construction can resume promptly. GSA’s goal is to reach project completion approximately 12 months after re-start of construction. GSA’s most current estimate for the building’s substantial completion is March New Building Status