Professor (Emeritus) Christopher Kissling 9am – 12 noon Friday 2 September, 2011 Waikirikiri Room Landcare, Lincoln.

 Private transport will remain dominant in the travel profiles of most New Zealanders regardless of any recognition of Peak Oil and consequences. Other budget items will likely suffer before personal car transport is reduced drastically or abandoned.

 Public Transport will become relatively more important as fuel prices rise, despite the historical lack of government investment compared with the current emphasis on maintaining and building roads. A 20% mode share by PT in urban areas is possible.

 New Zealand will find more oil but it will not be cheap to recover. This will extend the period of transition to alternative fuels.

 New Zealand is unlikely to lead in development of alternative fuels for transport, and will remain reliant upon imported vehicle technology as our relative market size is small. Innovations will be developed offshore.

 Cheap (but poorly performing in terms of GHG emissions) importation of second hand cast off vehicles likely to continue – unfortunately.

 Rise in home-based work supported by high quality communications. (The “cottage industry” tradition in a modern form). Less need for some traditional CBD functions to co- locate. Increased need for localised neighbourhood retailing and social spaces.

 Less horizontal segregation in land uses once deemed incompatible.  More mixed uses  Allows for more compact and higher density development.  Will help public transport ridership.

 More distributed generation of electricity from “Green” housing and industry.  Redirection of water from surplus West Coast run of the river sources into existing Hydro electricity catchments.  Possible sequestration technology developments could lead to reassessment of plentiful coal resources.  Dabbling with wind and marine turbines.  Bio fuels experimentation accelerated.

 Post earthquake rebuilding plans as outlined in the draft City Plan, indicate thinking is now looking to take energy consumption into consideration. Energy efficient buildings. Energy efficient transport. Energy efficient distribution of activities.  PT can be used to help shape the pattern of sustainable settlement in Canterbury.  Urban public transport will continue to be dominated by Bus options for the next 10 years, but reserved corridors must be convertible to rail-based transport – probably sooner than some people think.  Exclusive right of way corridors are essential to separate cars from PT

 A key decision must be to integrate mainline rail (passenger services) with so-called “light rail” solutions. This means light rail options should be at the same gauge as mainline track to allow train- trams to operate across the regional network. The proposed light rail between University of Canterbury and the new central city is not, in my opinion, the first segment of a light rail network that should be built. Links joining mainline rail to the central city are a much more logical and cost effective step, especially if they include a loop around the new CBD boundary. It would provide the needed demonstration effect that will culminate in demands for even more “light rail”

 Link mainline rail from Riccarton via North Hagley Park’s limited access roads to Armagh Street, continuing to Manchester Street and thence to rejoin the mainline somewhere near the old railway station. Use train-trams.  Would provide regional access to new compact CBD and to major regional services that are planned.  Later, extend routes to include major generators of ridership.

 The new central city heart has to be accessible from across Canterbury. Rail already connects the main satellite communities. Regional facilities should be located close to rail access.  Train/Trams, buses, cycles need to link. Cycles on train- trams are easier to achieve than on buses.  Some return to coastal shipping is likely as it can be very fuel efficient – but it should use cleaner bunker fuel. Inter- island links could again include Lyttelton as a bypass to rail freight between Lyttelton – Picton (or Clifford Bay).  Do not discount substantial improvements in fuel savings from new automotive diesel engine and vehicle designs, especially for commercial trucking. There are exciting developments taking place.

 ADVERSITY IS A GREAT STIMULATOR OF INNOVATION AND DESIGN  DO NOT LOOK TO MORE OF THE SAME  MOBILITY IS TREASURED  WE NEED ENABLING LEADERSHIP