How to Valorise Research on the Effects of Peak Oil for Urban Planning? A Method to Investigate Peak Oil Risks and Mitigation Dr. Susan Krumdieck Associate Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand Presentation to Walloon Parliament 26 April 2011 Namur, Belgium

Peak Oil Issue Even if you believed it was an issue, what would you do about it?

Research Developments Peak Oil as a Planning Issue Transition Engineering for Mitigation

Risk Assessment and Mitigation Risk Assessment: Probability and Impact Adaptive Capacity Resilience Re-Development Strategic Development Planning New Zealand Herald

Peak Oil: Understanding the Issue Not really a question of if Probability (Campbell, 2004)

Peak Oil: Probability Expert Assessments of Peak Oil Year Number Expert predictions of Supply Decline Rate 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 4.0% 4.8% 6.7% Meta Analysis of Petroleum Geology and Supply Experts

Peak Oil Issue: Probability Meta Analysis of petroleum geology experts 50% Reduction by 2050 Raleigh Distribution Monte-Carlo Simulation (Krumdieck, Page, Dantas, 2010)

Long Range Fuel Supply Probability Probability associated with scenarios of oil supply issues.

Peak Oil: Impact Behaviour and Access to Activities Assets and Infrastructure Investments Current Energy Use For Current Travel Demand Change in Oil Supply Future Energy Use For Future Travel Demand

Oil Supply Decline Impact University of Canterbury, Christchurch Students $13,500 pa Staff $66,000 pa Study of Adaptation

Local Adaptive Capacity Travel Adaptive Capacity Assessment Survey (TACA Survey)

Travel Behaviour Trips per week per 100 persons Distance Traveled Students 5.6 litres/wk 34.7 km/wk Staff 17.6 litres/wk 60.7 km/wk Transport Energy

Adaptation in Travel Demand Normal Alternatives Do you have an alternative? Car use reduction

Travel Behaviour Adaptive Capacity Christchurch Energy Reduction

Public Transport Adaptive Potential Bus Routes Christchurch Bus Potential

Council Urban Plan 2041 Christchurch Densification Christchurch Sprawl 45% higher fuel demand than % higher fuel demand than 2006

Risk to Essential Transport Activities RECATS Method (Dantas et al, 2008) Travel Activity Energy Constraint Calculate Energy Consumption E 2 < E 1 ? Modify Travel Activity Constrained Travel Activity Calculate Risk Yes NoE1E1 E2E2

Risk to Essential Activities Greater Christchurch Fuel consumption UDS Concentrated UDS Dispersal 95% Energy Increase 45% Increase Canterbury Regional Fuel Use

Mitigation and Planning Urban Form Developments Urban Villages and Free Markets Public Transport Densification Bike Infrastructure Technologies Vehicles and Fuels Behaviours Residential Location Mode Choice

Strategic Analysis: Opportunities

Strategic Analysis to 2050 Urban Form Adaptations Fuel, Vehicle, Behaviour Adaptations Active Infrastructure 100km Bikeways Dense City Centre Integrated Urban Villages Current Urban Form 3 L/100km Fleet Efficiency 50% Biofuels Synfuels 50% Electric Vehicles Low Carbon Lifestyle 50 km of Electric Trolleys Possible No Unlikely golf carts only No Unlikely Yes Possible Personal Travel in Dunedin Technical Feasibility Resource Availability Economic Viability Social Environment Asset Value Future Risk

Thank you for your attention Engineering Research to Investigate and Mitigate Peak Oil Risks Dr. Susan Krumdieck Presentation to Walloon Parliament 26 April 2011 Namur, Belgium