SOUTHEAST NATURAL RESOURCE LEADERSHIP GROUP ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST Agency Presentation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Dr. Jeffrey Payne NOAA Coastal Services Center May 27 – 29, 2008 Charleston, South Carolina

Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions. A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades to a century with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions. Program Performance Objective Outcomes NOAA’s Climate Goal Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, monitoring, and data management Climate Observations and Monitoring Improve the ability of society to plan for and respond to climate variability and change Climate Service Development Climate Research and Modeling Understand and predict climate variability and change from weeks to decades to a century Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond

Describe the State of the Climate System Climate System Observations Ocean Atmosphere Arctic Carbon Data Management NOAA’s Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System State of the Climate Report Climatological statistics and summaries National Climatic Data Center

Understand and Predict Climate Variability and Change From Weeks to a Century Understanding Climate Processes NOAA research labs, centers, and cooperative institutes Competitive grants Earth System Modeling, Predictions, and Projections National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab coupled climate models Analysis and Attribution Reanalysis Emerging focus on integrated earth system analysis and attribution GFDL MODEL Capturing the global distribution of the short-lived Aerosols spreading out from the source regions

Develop and Deliver Climate Information Services Assessing Climate, Impacts, and Adaptation Global, national, regional, and sectoral assessments of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation Climate Services Development and Delivery International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Weather Service Regional Climate Centers Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments

There is a collective picture of a warming world and human activities have contributed... Global temperatures: Up 0.7 – 1.4 o over past 100 years Consistent with the warming:  Glacial retreat in Arctic  10-15% reduction Arctic sea ice extent (1970s)  Snow-cover decrease (10% since 1970s)  Freeze-free periods lengthened (20 th century)  Sea-level increased 4-8 inches (since 19 th cen)  Lake and river ice shortened season (~ 2 weeks, 19 th to 20 th century) CO 2 abundance likely double by 2100 Predicted climate responses:  Global temperature rise 2-6 o F by 2100  Corresponding sea level rise of 4-35” by 2100

Socioeconomic Pressures: A Call for Climate Services Increased Vulnerability 9 billion people by 2050 (50% increase) Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4 billion new city dwellers, aging populations, overdevelopment in coastal regions, and regions with limited water supply “Climate change threatens the basic elements of life for people around the world - access to water, food production, health, and use of land and the environment.” (Stern Review, 2006)

RISA’s Climate Services Partnerships Illinois State Water Survey Louisiana State University RISA – Western Water Desert Research Institute NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center RISA – Pacific Northwest University of Nebraska RISA – California Pacific RISA RISA – Arizona RISA – Florida NOAA National Climatic Data Center NOAA Climate Prediction Center* Cornell University International Research Institute UNC-Chapel Hill RISA – Carolina NWS Regional HQ *Climate Services Division, Climate Program Office, NOAA HQ

National Climate Service Congressional View: S Specific Services The Service, at a minimum, shall – -provide comprehensive and authoritative information about the state of the climate and its effects, through observations, monitoring… -provide predictions and projections on the future state of the climate… -assess and strengthen delivery mechanisms for providing climate information to end users… -communicate…on an ongoing basis to decision- and policy-makers, the private sector, and to the public Development of Vision for a National Climate Service Proposed two-pronged approach: 1.Establishment of a national climate services partnership across federal agencies -Mechanism through which Nation’s goals with regard to managing climate risks are identified, and investments and activities for production and application of climate information are coordinated -Focus on ensuring highly usable, actionable, issue-focused information is produced and evaluated 2.Establishment of a National Climate Service -Nation’s identified, accessible, authoritative, and centralized point of entry for regular and timely climate information (National Climate Program Act of 1978 and emerging legislation)

Examples of NOAA Climate Program activities focused on impacts and adaptation  Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) -- Catalyze and support applied, interdisciplinary research, outreach, and education activities to enhance capacity of key socio-economic sectors to respond to and plan for climate variability and change through the use of climate information and related decision support resources  Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) -- NOAA supports university-based teams across U.S. to analyze how climate impacts key sectors within a region and how climate information could help with resource management and planning within that region  Transition of Research Applications to Climate Services (TRACS) -- Transition experimentally mature climate tools, methods, and processes from research mode into settings where they may be applied in an operational and sustained manner

Sarasota Increasing Community Resilience to Future Hurricane Storm Surge: Collaborative Decision Support in Sarasota, Florida Storm Surge Zones Goals Develop methodology to increase resilience to storm surge & SLR for coastal communities Help Sarasota incorporate scenarios of SLR & development into long-range planning Brent Yarnal Project PI Tim Frazier Graduate Researcher Nathan Wood USGS Co PI

Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA)  RISAs create strong university partnerships with federal, state, and local stakeholders within a region  Example topics covered include: agriculture, wildland fire, water resources, drought planning, fisheries, public health, coastal processes  RISAs create strong university partnerships with federal, state, and local stakeholders within a region  Example topics covered include: agriculture, wildland fire, water resources, drought planning, fisheries, public health, coastal processes

Systems and activities of socioeconomic value affected by climate in coastal areas Community growth and development Natural hazard preparedness Conservation Ecosystem health and restoration Energy Tourism Public health Shorelines and developed areas Wetlands Estuaries Coral reefs Ocean margins and fishery resources

Illustrative climate change issues involving ecological resources Attribution of climate signals impacting ecosystems: long term change and natural variability Ocean warming and circulation patterns: impacts on distribution and productivity (phenology, production, invasives) Ocean acidification impacts on marine biota Precipitation patterns, freshwater supply and nutrients, and effects on resource management Sea level rise (natural resource implications) Frequency, track, and intensity of coastal storms and impacts on ecosystems