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& #noiOnDemand VOTE GOALS AND TARGETING Tom Bonier Clarity Campaign Labs

& #noiOnDemand INTRODUCTIONS NOI On Demand You Norms

& #noiOnDemand FOLLOWING THE LAW ELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM

& #noiOnDemand FOLLOWING THE LAW

& #noiOnDemand Presenter: & #noiOnDemand Tom Bonier Partner/Co-founder Clarity Campaign Labs

& #noiOnDemand OBJECTIVE To provide an understanding of what targeting and vote goals are, why they are helpful, and how they can be implemented

& #noiOnDemand AGENDA What is targeting and why is it helpful? How to calculate a vote goal How to use targeting to reach your goal – Persuasion – GOTV Using a vote goal to build a program Case studies

& #noiOnDemand Makes the most of limited resources Provides for accountability (Field math!) Charts out a clear path to victory HOW IS TARGETING USEFUL?

& #noiOnDemand TARGETING – HOW TO BEST USE LIMITED RESOURCES TURNOUT HISTORY PRESUMED SUPPORT LOWUNKNOWNHIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION HIGH TURNOUT BASE SPORADIC x SPORADIC TURNOUT PERSUASION SPORADIC TURNOUT BASE LOW xxx NEW xxNEW BASE

& #noiOnDemand How many people will vote? Historical turnout Unique factors to this year Who is in my district? What % do I need to win? How many candidates are on the ballot? How confident am I in my turnout #s? many votes to win? HOW MANY VOTES TO WIN? {majority of people who vote}

& #noiOnDemand VOTE GOAL FORMULA Turnout Registration = Turnout Rate 1. Pick 3 similar elections. 2. Find Turnout Rate 3. Apply turnout to current registration Turnout Rate x Registered Voters = Expected Vote 4. Find win # (50% + 1, 52% to be safe) Expected Vote x 50% + 1 = win number. Registration Turnout + + () / 3

& #noiOnDemand EXPECTED VOTE: CASE STUDY 1996 and 2008 turnout dips compared to other Presidential years: could this be explained by the absence of a Senate contest on the ballot? Credit: Luke Peterson, NCEC Don’t Let the Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good

& #noiOnDemand Don’t Let the Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good Vote Goal is used for planning… Which voters need engagement What your voter contact plan should look like How much your plan is likely to cost When in doubt, round up! Gut check!

& #noiOnDemand Geographic targeting Supporter IDs Modeled support Poll-based demographic targeting TARGETING - SUPPORT

& #noiOnDemand Undecided IDs Soft supporter IDs Ticket-splitter models Cross-pressured voters EIP TARGETING - PERSUASION

& #noiOnDemand TARGETING – HOW TO BEST USE LIMITED RESOURCES TURNOUT HISTORY PRESUMED SUPPORT LOWUNKNOWNHIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION HIGH TURNOUT BASE SPORADIC x SPORADIC TURNOUT PERSUASION SPORADIC TURNOUT BASE LOW xxx NEW xxNEW BASE

& #noiOnDemand How many votes do you already have? Likely voting core supporters, no persuasion or GOTV needed VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 1 – Base Vote Step 2 – Vote deficit How many more votes do you need? Vote goal minus Base vote

& #noiOnDemand How many votes can you gain through increased base turnout? Infrequent voting core supporters Voter registration potential Gut check – how realistic is this goal in the context of past precedent? How far short does your base vote expansion goal leave you of erasing your deficit? VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 3 – Base Vote Expansion

& #noiOnDemand What share of the persuadable voters must you win in order to reach your goal? Likely voting persuadable voters Set an ID goal; try to convert and ID as many supporters among your persuasion, at a minimum, as your vote deficit number Gut check – how realistic is this goal in the context of past precedent, polling, and general common sense (ie, is your goal to win 90% of swing voters?) VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 4 – Persuasion

& #noiOnDemand What does your program look like to reach your GOTV goal? What will it cost? What does your program look like to reach your persuasion goal? What will it cost? Do these allocations make sense? Is one more efficient than the other? VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 5 – Budgeting Persuasion vs GOTV

& #noiOnDemand IDing your win number What does your program look like to reach your persuasion goal? What will it cost? Do these allocations make sense? Is one more efficient than the other? VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGN Step 6 – Implementation

& #noiOnDemand UniverseDescriptionStrategyTotal VotersProjected SupportProjected TurnoutVotes High Turnout Base0 Sporadic Turnout Base0 Low Turnout Base0 High Turnout Persuasion0 Sporadic Turnout Persuasion0 Low Turnout Persuasion0 High Turnout GOP0 Sporadic Turnout GOP0 Low Turnout GOP0 Total 0 Your Vote Goal Vote Deficit 0 VOTE GOAL TEMPLATE

& #noiOnDemand An anti-immigration politician won an election by less than 1%. A group that does issue advocacy/electoral work notices this result, and discovers that Hispanic voters comprised only 7% of the district’s electorate, but a much larger share of the eligible voters. CASE STUDY Under-represented Mobilization

& #noiOnDemand Action plan: -Take subset of the non-voting Hispanic universe (easily canvassable doors) -Knock each door 3 times -Goal: 50% turnout from target universe Result: Hispanic voter share increases by 3%, more than enough to make the difference CASE STUDY Under-represented Mobilization

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand QUESTIONS?

& #noiOnDemand OX

& #noiOnDemand & #noiOnDemand Interdependent Leadership (aka the Snowflake Model) Interdependent Leadership HOW CAN I SUPPORT?