'White Flight' in England and Wales? Examining Ward-Level Mobility Decisions in a Longitudinal Sample, Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College

Community and Closure 'Neighborhoods can be open only if countries are at least potentially closed...The distinctiveness of cultures and groups depends upon closure and without it cannot be conceived as a stable feature of human life' Walzer (1983:39)

White Flight?

Manchester London

USA Source: data from Card Mas & Rothstein 2008 Source: Andersson Hammarstedt Neuman 2012

‘Counterurbanization?’ A number of leading UK geographers (Catney and Simpson 2010; Finney and Simpson 2007; Simon 2009) suggest that both whites and minorities leave dense poor areas for leafier more attractive places But even they do not deny that ethnic preference plays some role Flight v Avoidance

Simpson (2007) Method Wards % White Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Total Toward diversity Away from diversity

Wards % White Quintile 1 6,72294% Quintile 2 1,02979% Quintile % Quintile % Quintile % Total Wards % White Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Total

ONS Longitudinal Study The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: RES ). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Moved Out of Ward in : WardsWh BritishMinoritiesWH OtherWhite Irish 98% White %4.7%3.2%1.5% 87% White7265.4%6.4%7.7%4.1% 73% White2886.8%6.0%8.1%5.6% 57% White1807.0%4.6%7.8%3.8% 33% White1026.1%2.9%13.1%3.2% Total8850 Source: Office for National Statistics ONS Longitudinal Study.

Nonwhites in Most Deprived Quintile of Wards in 2001 who moved over 10 kms over : Whitest01White01Med01Low01Most Minority01N Whitest %16.02%24.39%23.23%19.19%693 White918.89%13.21%24.26%26.95%26.68%371 Med914.59%15.55%21.91%33.22%24.73%283 Low915.18%13.99%26.42%27.46%26.94%193 Most Minority916.00%10.67%24.67%36.67%22.00%n.d. White British in Most Deprived Quintile of Wards in 2001 who moved over 10 kms over : Whitest01White01Med01Low01Most Minority01 Whitest %17.20%15.73%13.40%7.04%6396 White %19.70%21.06%16.50%9.73%812 Med %18.59%16.36%17.84%11.15%269 Low %22.76%21.38%15.17%6.90%145 Most Minority %16.44%19.18%20.55%9.59%n.d. Source: Office for National Statistics ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

Predictors of Leaving Quintile 5 (33% white) during (t-stat) Source: Office for National Statistics ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

Predictors of Quintile Shift (excluding area controls for ethnicity density poverty) Source: Office for National Statistics ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

London Net Domestic Migration by subgroup:INOUTNetNet % N White British39617,480-3, % White Irish % 1392 White Other % 2121 Nonwhite6651, % White British married1,3905,162-3, % White British homeowner2,2956,479-4, % White British Manager & Professional28174,334-1, % White British Working Class4431,477-1, % 7011 White British Council Housed % 6077 Black Caribbean % 1732 Indian % 3216 Muslim % 2744 South Asian % 4829 Black African % 885 Total England & Wales Sample:407,101 Source: Office for National Statistics ONS Longitudinal Study. Clearance #30131

'What are the mechanisms through which racial context operates on thoughts of mobility? Although the optimal approach for answering questions about motivations would be to use longitudinal data that measure both attitudes and behavior at the individual level, these data do not exist‘ – Krysan 2002

White Movers Wards % White Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Total Diversity Seekers 24% Tory 18% Working Class 27% Degrees 57% English Identity 46% Tabloid 44% 17-25s 50% renters 49% single 10% anti-homosexual 9% gender traditionalists White Flight/Avoiders 24% Tory 18% Working Class 30% Degrees 57% English Identity 56% Tabloid 32% 17-25s 26% renters 35% single 12% anti-homosexual 12% gender traditionalists Source: BHPS/Understanding Society,

Moved to less diverse Moved to more diverseStayerMover working class Con Labour Liberal degree & above English identifier redtop broadsheet rented total children Homosexuality Wrong Husband Should Earn British Citizenship Best Religious Source: BHPS/Understanding Society,

Want to Move?: White Minority Area (Quintiles 4 & 5) AllNonwhiteWhiteWhite Working N.W. Working 47.3%45.5%49.5%59.7%38.2% N Want to Move?: 98% White Area (Quintile 1) AllNonwhiteWhiteWhite Working N.W. Working 32.4%46.4%32.4%37.7%50% N Source: BHPS/Understanding Society,

Networks rather than Nationalism? “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978 Maybe white family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move Could be amenities and culture: pubs v. mosques, garden centres v. ethnic restaurants OR could be subliminal ethnic avoidance distinct from conscious ideology End result is the same, however: white British withdrawal from diversifying urban zones

Conclusion Little white flight but more white ‘avoidance’(?). Not just counterurbanization Anti-immigration opinion seemingly not linked to propensity to leave or avoid minorities But white working class are more likely than white upper/middle to avoid diversity Networks or cultural preferences may explain these patterns, or latent ethnic motivations

Future Research Focus Group Work required to tease out meanings 4 focus groups: 2 in white minority areas, 2 in adjacent mainly white areas. 2 in London, 2 in Midlands 2011 data updates (ONS LS Census)