I. TECHNOLOGY II. IMPLICATIONS III. SOLUTIONS IV. GLOBALIZATION I. TECHNOLOGY II. IMPLICATIONS III. SOLUTIONS IV. GLOBALIZATION Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Mike Treder, Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Senior Associates Gathering May 16, 2004 Palo Alto, California, USA

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology I. Develop Technology II. Understand Implications III. Prepare Solutions IV. Implement Globally Challenges of Nanotech

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology I. TECHNOLOGY Desktop manufacturing is on its way Not IF, but HOW SOON Gating factor is determination, not feasibility Increasing number of routes to get there

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Molecular Toolbox Nanoscale Elevator Nanoscale Conveyor Belt Ultra-short Pulsed Laser

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Technical University of Denmark — a whole lab integrated under an electron microscope  Two manipulators and a turntable, and MEMS tips for the manipulators  They can build 20-nanometer tips on the MEMS tips by using the electron beam to deposit metal atoms  Small enough to move individual molecules around Lab-on-SEM

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology MNT in Russia? Fixation, displacement and activation of atoms, polymerization, deposition, etching in technological chamber and flexible microreactors Efficient seismic and acoustic isolation Accuracy of positioning control - 1A Step displacement of sample along X,Y axes - 10 mm High-speed and wide scanning at range up to 30x30 u and detailed investigation at region less than 1x1 nm

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix says: “If I were going to specify a system for building the final proto-assembler, it might look quite a lot like this.” Building a proto-assembler?

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Manipulation instrument ~ $30K US AFM instrument ~ $6K US The Cost Factor

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology March 2004: Institute of Nanotechnology (makers of above instruments) and Youth Science Society announce "competition of Russian youth projects on domestic MNT development". Will Russia get MNT first?

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Rapid Bootstrapping Basic design by R. Merkle, artwork by K. E. Drexler

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology The Nanofactory Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units Combine nanoscale pieces into large-scale products General-purpose manufacturing in a tabletop format Extremely advanced products with compact functionality Produce its own weight in hours; produce copies of itself

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

I. Develop Technology — Happening — Happening II. Understand Implications III. Prepare Solutions IV. Implement Globally Challenges of Nanotech

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology II. IMPLICATIONS Will be transformative — probably disruptive Not WHETHER, but HOW MUCH and HOW FAST Economists have term: creative destruction AKA: unemployment lines

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology U.S. Semiconductor Industry U.S Sales = $80 Billion Worldwide 2003 Sales = $166 Billion U.S. Jobs = 226,000

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Electronics Products Retail distribution = almost $300 billion annually in U.S. alone

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Global Steel Industry Over 200 steel-making companies $700 billion in sales

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology More Implications Environmental damage Unstable arms races WMD proliferation War Terrorism Universal surveillance No privacy Intellectual property violation Black markets Smuggling

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Nano Pollution Ultimate test for the “Throw-away Society” ?

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Surveillance

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Lack of Privacy

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Nano Weapons  Easy to build  Hard to monitor  Easy to deliver  Obsolete almost immediately  Programmable and controllable

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology WMD Proliferation

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Terrorism

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Arms Race

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology War

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology We need solutions… And we need them now.

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology I. Develop Technology II. Understand Implications III. Prepare Solutions IV. Implement Globally Challenges of Nanotech Satisfactory outcome requires all four to be effectively addressed. Satisfactory outcome requires all four to be effectively addressed.

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology I. Develop Technology — Happening — Happening II. Understand Implications — Well begun III. Prepare Solutions — Barely started — Barely started IV. Implement Globally — Zilch — Zilch Challenges of Nanotech

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology III. SOLUTIONS No easy answers!! Nanofactory control options Global administration network?? Risks from competitive development Single international crash program?? Avoiding an arms race

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology - Makes black market inevitable - Manufacture of dangerous products - Intellectual property violations - Manufacture of dangerous products - Removes incentive for black market - Prevents alleviation of human suffering - Hinders creation of prosperity - Makes black market inevitable - Allows alleviation of human suffering - Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity - Reduces incentive for black market Nanofactory Control Options T E C H N I C A L R E S T R I C T I O N S DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS Loose Tight

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology - Makes black market inevitable - Manufacture of dangerous products - Intellectual property violations - Manufacture of dangerous products - Removes incentive for black market - Prevents alleviation of human suffering - Hinders creation of prosperity - Makes black market inevitable - Allows alleviation of human suffering - Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity - Reduces incentive for black market Nanofactory Control Options T E C H N I C A L R E S T R I C T I O N S DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS Loose Tight

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology - Makes black market inevitable - Manufacture of dangerous products - Intellectual property violations - Manufacture of dangerous products - Removes incentive for black market - Prevents alleviation of human suffering - Hinders creation of prosperity - Makes black market inevitable - Allows alleviation of human suffering - Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity - Reduces incentive for black market Nanofactory Control Options T E C H N I C A L R E S T R I C T I O N S DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS Loose Tight

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology - Makes black market inevitable - Manufacture of dangerous products - Intellectual property violations - Manufacture of dangerous products - Removes incentive for black market - Prevents alleviation of human suffering - Hinders creation of prosperity - Makes black market inevitable - Allows alleviation of human suffering - Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity - Reduces incentive for black market Nanofactory Control Options T E C H N I C A L R E S T R I C T I O N S DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS Loose Tight

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology I. Develop Technology II. Understand Implications III. Prepare Solutions IV. Implement Globally Challenges of Nanotech

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Old World Our lifetimes: Cold War Berlin Wall Space Race MAD

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology New World 21 st Century: World wide web American empire Globalization of science

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Next World In a few years: Exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing Wonderful benefits Terrible dangers

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity — and never before have the risks been so great. Earth on the Brink

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Unanswered Questions How soon? How disruptive? No one knows.

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Who is Interested? People’s Republic of China British Royal Society U.S. National Science Foundation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ACUNU Millennium Project Institute of Nanotechnology — Russia Greenpeace International

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Web References to CRN In all these languages… Arabic, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Hungarian, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Persian, Russian, Spanish, Swedish, Turkish, and English.

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology IV. GLOBALIZATION The challenges of nanotechnology will have to be addressed by a diverse collection of people and organizations. No single approach will solve all problems or address all needs.

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology IV. GLOBALIZATION The only answer is a collective answer, and that will demand an unprecedented collaboration of leaders in science, technology, business, government, and NGOs. It will require participation from people of many nations, cultures, languages, and belief systems.

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology I. Develop Technology II. Understand Implications III. Prepare Solutions IV. Implement Globally Challenges of Nanotech When and How? What and When? Who and What? What and How? Satisfactory outcome (survival?) requires all four to be effectively addressed. Satisfactory outcome (survival?) requires all four to be effectively addressed.

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology We must begin now to develop common understanding, create lines of communication, and build a stable structure that will enable humankind to pass safely through the transition into the nano era. Our Greatest Challenge

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology How You Can Help Contact your Senators/Representatives Contact your Senators/Representatives Join the C-R-Network Join the C-R-Network We need contacts, researchers, money We need contacts, researchers, money Thank you! WEBSITE: