WMO UNEP INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME WMO UNEP IPCC Good Practice Guidance Simon Eggleston Technical Support Unit National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme IPCC

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC National Systems  Should be designed and operated to enable Parties included in Annex 1 to consistently estimate anthropogenic emission by all sources and removals by all sinks of all GHGs, as covered by the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and IPCC good practice guidance, in accordance with relevant decisions of the COP and/or COP/MOP –FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add13, Decision 20.CP.7 Annex 1 Art 9

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC What are the IPCC Guidelines?  Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (3 Volumes)  Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National greenhouse Gas Inventories (2000)  Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003)

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC What is Good Practice?  Assists countries in producing inventories that are accurate in the sense of being neither over nor underestimates so far as can be judged, and in which uncertainties are reduced as far as possible  Gives a way to manage uncertainties

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Good Practice…  Supports the development of inventories that are: Transparent Documented Consistent over time Complete Comparable Assessed for uncertainties Subject to quality control and assurance Efficient in the use of resources available to inventory agencies In which uncertainties are gradually reduced as better information becomes available

WMO UNEP INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME WMO UNEP Key Source Analysis & Methodological Choice What is it and why is it important?

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Key Source Analysis  Identifies sources with significant impact on total emissions or trend  The largest accounting for 95% of emissions are “KEY SOURCES” Not include LULUCF Additional qualitative criteria as well Assessment of trend as well Can also include uncertainty information Suggested aggregation of sectors in guidance Expect this to identify sources

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Key Source Analysis  Outcomes Higher tier methodologies should be used for Key Sectors Additional attention to QA/QC of key sources Resources are focused on sources with significant impact on total emission estimate Best use of available resources Reduce uncertainties as much as practical  Key Category analysis for LULUCF Similar to Key Sector including LULUCF Do as well as Key Source

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Methodological Choice  Guided by Key source analysis  Decision trees in GPG 2000 and 2003 Tier 1 are simple methods with default values Tier 2 are similar but with country specific emission factors and other data Tier 3 are more complex approaches, possibly models. However should be compatible with lower tiers.

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Data Needs  Again GPG 2000 and 2003 give guidance on activity data needed for different tiers QA/QC of data Checking Documentation requirements  Aim should be data that is representative, reliable and consistent over time

WMO UNEP INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME WMO UNEP Uncertainty Evaluations Causes of uncertainty and how to deal with it

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Uncertainty Evaluation  An essential part of an inventory Helps prioritise efforts to improve accuracy Guide decisions on methodological choice Most inventories and sources are reasonably reliable HOWEVER some sources may be order of magnitude estimates Difficult or impossible to quantify and completely characterise all inventory uncertainties Pragmatic approach - Use best available data and expert judgement

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Uncertainties  Need uncertainties in all parameters used, preferably need pdf as well (activity data AND emission factors) Use 95% confidence interval  These need to be documented, reviewed and used to estimate total inventory uncertainty

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Sources of Uncertainty Estimates  Measurement errors  Uncertainties in factors  Use of Statistics  Application of emission factors  Representivity (or lack of it!)  Expert Judgement – expert elicitation  Models – applicability

WMO UNEP INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME WMO UNEP Recalculations What to do if consistent time series methodology not possible

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Recalculations  Why? Available data changed Previous method not good practice A source category has become key Cannot transparently reflect mitigation Inventory capacity increased New methods become available New sources identified Errors corrected

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Recalculations  Good practice to use same method and consistent data for all years  If not possible: Try new methods to get data Splicing  Overlap (best)  Surrogate  Interpolation  Trend Extrapolation Documentation!

WMO UNEP INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME WMO UNEP QA/QC What, Why and How?

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Quality Control  is a system of routine technical activities, to measure and control the quality of the inventory as it is being developed. The QC system is designed to: Provide routine and consistent checks to ensure data integrity, correctness, and completeness; Identify and address errors and omissions; Document and archive inventory material and record all QC activities.

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Quality Assurance  Quality Assurance (QA) activities include a planned system of review procedures conducted by personnel not directly involved in the inventory compilation/ development process.  Reviews, preferably by independent third parties, should be performed upon a finalised inventory following the implementation of QC procedures.

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC QA/QC – Major Elements  An inventory agency responsible for coordinating QA/QC activities;  A QA/QC plan;  General QC procedures (Tier 1);  Source category-specific QC procedures (Tier 2);  QA review procedures;  Reporting, documentation, and archiving procedures.

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Quality Control (Tier 1)  Check assumptions and selection of data are documented  Check for transcription errors and references  Check units and conversion factors  Check integrity of database files  Check data consistency between sources  Check movement of data between steps correct  Check uncertainties are estimated correctly  Undertake review of documentation  Check recalculations  Make completeness checks  Compare estimates to previous ones

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Quality Control (Tier 2)  Focus on key sources  Where used check if IPCC defaults appropriate  QA/QC of country specific factors  QA/QC of direct emissions  Emission comparisons Order of magnitude checks Reference calculations  QA/QC of national data from secondary sources  QC of uncertainty estimates

WMO UNEP INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME WMO UNEP Review and Documentation Critical Steps

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Review (not UNFCCC!)  Expert peer review By relevant technical experts Not and Audit  Can be supplemented by stakeholder review and public review mechanisms  Document review and inventory response  Audits Check compliance with minimum QC specifications and QC plan Check both Inventory QC and source specific QC Can occur at various stages in inventory development

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Documentation  Assumptions and criteria for selection of activity data and emission factors;  Emission factors used, including references;  Activity data or sufficient information to it to be traced to the referenced source;  Information on the uncertainty associated with activity data and emission factors;  Rationale for choice of methods;  Methods used, including those used to estimate uncertainty;  Changes in data inputs or methods from previous years;  Individuals providing expert judgement for uncertainty estimates;  Databases or software used and any information required for their use;  Worksheets and interim calculations for source category estimates and aggregated estimates and any recalculations of previous estimates;  Final inventory report and any analysis of trends from previous years;  QA/QC plans and outcomes of QA/QC procedures.

Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC Conclusions  IPCC Good Practice Guidance Key Source analysis and Methodological Choice Uncertainty evaluations Recalculations Quality Control and Assurance Review Documentation