Global Warming Winter Storming Ellen E. Martin Dept of Geological Sciences Snow angel Ocala, Florida, Jan. 8, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Global Warming Winter Storming Ellen E. Martin Dept of Geological Sciences Snow angel Ocala, Florida, Jan. 8, 2010

If global warming is really happening… Why was this winter so cold and wet? Winter second coldest winter on record in Florida

Need to understand: the difference between climate and weather what :global warming” means Snowstorm in Washington DC, Feb. 2010

Climate vs. Weather Weather –The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place with respect to temperature, cloudiness, moisture, wind, pressure Climate –30 year average of atmospheric state (World Meteorological Organization) –“expected weather”

Global Warming A tendency for the global mean surface temperature to increase Average: Land and ocean All latitudes All seasons

Global Mean Temperature Mean Temperature- Gainesville 58°F 72°F

Measured temperature record for past ~150 yrs

Medieval Warmth Little Ice Age Northern Hemisphere Temperatures for the past 1000 yrs

Time series, Alaska Kilimanjaro, Africa

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Arctic Sea Ice- summer m/watch?v=JMQ21p93J Zc

Whether the world is getting warmer isn’t controversial Political debate focused on whether the world is getting warmer due to: - natural causes or - man-made greenhouse gases (the greenhouse effect)

Centuries Millennia Millions of years Zachos et al., 2001 Colder More ice

So, why was this winter so cold? El Niño

Conditions in US during El Niño winters Vancouver

Global warming = climate = global Cold winter in southeast US = weather = local El Nino La Nina Strong evidence that the global mean surface temperature of earth is increasing Related to El Niño conditions

From Goddard Space Institute

Record of atmospheric CO 2 from ice cores Record of atmospheric CO 2 from direct measurements (Hawaii)

Greenhouse Gases IPCC 2007 Ice core data

Ice Core CO 2 Record Modern rate of increased compared to past 400 ky

Atmosphere Earth’s Greenhouse (S/4)(1-  ) Earth T4T4 T s = 58°F Incoming Short wave energy Outgoing Long wave energy

Global Carbon Cycle NASA- earthobservatory (~1990) +3/yr +0.5/yr +1.5/yr Reforestation Deforestation 40,000,

CO 2 by Country Per capita 2002

Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Kump, Kasting and Crane Consume all fossil fuels (2300)  2100 ppmV CO 2 (CCD)

Temperature- Greenhouse Gas Correlation NOAA/NCDC Correlation between temperature and CO 2 concentration

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases IPCC 2007 Gases Processes

Climate System Atmosphere Geosphere - land Cryosphere -ice Hydrosphere -ocean Biosphere - vegetation