Risk and Resilience: A Canadian Perspective on Climate Change Adaptation Donald S. Lemmen, PhD Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate Natural Resources Canada SBSTA 20 Adaptation Workshop 18 June 2004 Bonn

Outline 1 – why perceptions matter 2 – risk and perceptions of risk in Canada 3 – building awareness and engagement to better manage risk 4 – areas for enhanced information exchange Messages perceptions of risk and of capacity to adapt vary vulnerability to current climate at the local and regional level is often key to raising awareness of risk need to consider action in context of on-going decision-making processes

Why Understanding Perception of Risk is Important Risk perception influences: mitigative and adaptive responses to climate change the timing and magnitude of response the level of priority given to actions Risk perception includes: probability and severity of the stress uncertainty ability to respond to the stress

Atlantic Canada Ontario and Quebec The North The Prairies British Columbia Canada Current and Future Risks of Climate Change In Canada

Differing Perceptions of Risk due to Climate Change Areas where assessed risk, and perception of risk, are well aligned: where unprecedented climate impacts are observed  northern ecosystems, glacier-fed waters where current costs of extreme climate events are high  flooding, drought, storm surges where potentially direct impacts on human health and well-being  traditional food supplies, heat stress

Differing Perceptions of Risk due to Climate Change Areas where assessed risk, and perception of risk, are poorly aligned where small, incremental changes approach critical thresholds  transportation, water resources where programs / policies insulate individuals from real affects  are such programs sustainable where limitations in ability to adapt are not well understood  coping range not defined

Keys to Managing Risk 1.Engage decision makers 2.Understanding climatic sensitivities and critical thresholds 3.Characterizing adaptive capacity 4.Assessing vulnerability 5.Integrating risks due to climate change into on-going decision making processes

Engaging Decision-makers Who? governments – multiple levels (local to national) and multiple departments industry and professional associations planners How? speak in terms of their decision-making processes focus on vulnerability to current climate analyze resilience to address plausible futures, including consideration of rates of change address as part of on-going risk management – one of several stresses to consider Why? to raise awareness of risks of climate change to identify priorities for adaptation action

Canada’s National Adaptation Framework Federal, Provincial and Territorial government initiative to: help jurisdictions develop individual adaptation strategies identify areas where jurisdictions can work together Framework defines three broad needs 1.To build knowledge and understanding 2.To increase awareness and engagement 3.To build capacity to undertake action

Government of Canada’s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program Program Elements: 1 – funding research and undertaking science assessment  increasing focus on adaptation research  targeting priority areas for decision-making 2 – Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network  bringing together research and stakeholder communities  facilitates regional and sectoral vulnerability analysis 3 – coordination of policy analysis and development  analysis of climate change implications for existing policies and programs  recognition that adaptation actions taken within one region or sector will have significant implications for others

Some areas for continued information exchange between all Parties 1.Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity local and regional scale vulnerability assessment assessing influences on adaptive capacity, including perceptions of risk assessing resilience to plausible futures 2.Adaptation Policies and Measures approaches to enhance awareness and engage decision-makers frameworks and planning tools to integrate risks due to climate change into on-going decision making processes understanding barriers (including risk perception) and incentives to implementation targeted policies and measures