OPEN PROGRAMME AREA GROUP 3 (OPAG 3) Climate Change and Variability: Agriculture, forests and fisheries Auckland New Zealand 21 – 23 February 2005

OPEN PROGRAMME AREA GROUP 3 (OPAG 3) Climate Change and Variability: Agriculture, forests and fisheries Dr Jim Salinger Chair Dr Wang Shili Co-Chair

Determine the status of climate change/variability and potential impacts on agriculture, rangelands, forestry and fisheries; Examine mitigation and adaptation strategies To appraise the current capabilities in the analysis of climate change/variability and natural disasters To review the results of climate change scenarios and climate variability studies and promote adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts Goals

Reduction of the Impact of Natural Disasters and Mitigation of Extreme Events in Agriculture, Rangelands, Forestry and Fisheries (Chair Dr Haripada Das) Contribution of Agriculture to the State of Climate (Chair Dr Ray Desjardins) Impact of Climate Change/Variability on Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture (Chair Dr Holger Meinke) OPAG 3 Implementation/Co-ordination Team (Chair Dr Jim Salinger, Co-Chair Dr Wang Shili OPAG 3 Three Expert Teams

ET Contribution of Agriculture to the State of Climate Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from agroecosystems ; Assessing the feedback mechanisms from human activities in agriculture, rangelands, forests and fisheries that may influence weather and climate ; Documenting both positive and negative influences of agriculture on weather and climate systems

ET Impact of Climate Change/Variability on Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture Appraising on current capabilities in the analyses of climate change/variability and long-range prediction studies as they relate to and affect agriculture, rangelands, forestry and fisheries; Reviewing methodologies for the presentation of seasonal to interannual prediction products and applications to the agriculture; Reviewing software packages for the calculation of appropriate seasonal climate variability indices for agriculture

ET on Reduction of the Impact of Natural Disasters and Mitigation of Extreme Events in Agriculture, Rangelands, Forestry and Fisheries Quantifying observational data needs, analytical tools, and information delivery mechanisms to facilitate greater early detection of extreme events; Documenting quidelines for awareness of potential natural disasters, and to make recommendations for early alert monitoring ; Studying prototype examples on how agrometeorological information is being used operationally to reduce the impact of natural disasters and extreme events.

Expert Meeting on Reduction of the Impact of Natural Disasters and Mitigation of Extreme Events in Agriculture, Rangelands, Forestry and Fisheries Very significant meeting in the examination of natural disasters and extreme climate events; Most important in advancing the OPAG3 programme; Publication of papers will improve disaster reduction strategies and relevant agrometeorological activities.

Draws together the work of the Expert Teams Summarise the status of climate change/variability studies and potential impacts of climate change/variability on national and regional agriculture, rangelands, forestry and fisheries; Summarise the status of mitigation and adaptation strategies with respect to impacts of climate change/variability and natural disasters in agriculture; Appraise and report on current capabilities in the analysis of climate change/variability and natural disasters as they relate to and affect agriculture, rangelands, forestry and fisheries at the national and regional levels; Implementation Coordination Team on Climate Change/Variability and National Disasters

Analyze and review the results of climate change scenarios and climate variability studies at the regional level and promote appropriate agrometeorological adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts on affect agriculture, rangelands, forestry and fisheries; Identify deficiencies in the operational applications of long-range predictions for agriculture, and make recommendations for improving the technology for the benefit of agriculture at the national and regional levels Report to WMO Implementation Coordination Team on Climate Change/Variability and National Disasters