PRESENTED BY: David Cantor, The Glover Park Group November 16, 2012 The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE ELECTION 2012 Post-Election Analysis

Takeaways  Trends and momentum matter  Obama maintained 2008 coalition  Coalition supplemented by auto-bailout  Role of the economy  Incumbency, organization, targeting, and math won  Partisan primaries cost Republicans  Still… close election and closely divided country THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 2

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 3 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS What Happened?

OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC NH Obama 365 McCain VT 3 RI 4 NJ 15 CT 7 DE 3 MD 10 DC 3 MA 12 NH 4 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 4 A RECAP OF THE 2008 ELECTION

Obama 332Romney 206 OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC NH Party change from ‘08 VT 3 RI 4 NJ 15 CT 7 DE 3 MD 10 DC 3 MA 12 NH 4 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | ELECTION RESULTS– OBAMA ONLY LOSES TWO STATES FROM 2008 MAP

Democrats: 55 (+2) Republicans: 45 (-2) OR AK KY NM MN CO GA NC NH Warren(D): 53.7% Brown (R-i): 46.3% King (D/I): 53.0% Summers (R): 30.6% Dill (D): 13.1% Donelly (D): 49.9% Mourdock (R): 44.4% Fischer(R): 58.2% Kerrey (D): 41.8% Source: CNN THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 6 SENATE: POST-ELECTION – DEMS GAIN TWO SEATS

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 7 Trends and Momentum

OBAMA vs. MCCAIN HEAD TO HEAD THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 8

2008 NL EAST RACE THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 9 Phillies Nats Mets

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data OBAMA JUMPED AHEAD OF ROMNEY IN CLOSING DAYS THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 10

2012 NL EAST RACE THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 11 Phillies Nats Mets

Source: InTrade PREDICTION MARKET (AND BETTING $) CONSISTENTLY FAVORED OBAMA THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 12

Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Staying the Same Getting worse Getting better STARTING IN AUGUST, AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 13

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data October 2004% Wrong Track47 Right Direction41 Nov 1996% Wrong Track40 Right Direction41 October 1992% Wrong Track69 Right Direction16 As of November 6, 2012A Look Back Source: NBC News/WSJ Nov 2008% Wrong Track76 Right Direction11 October 2000% Wrong Track32 Right Direction48 Source: NBC News/WSJ WRONG TRACK 52.8% RIGHT DIRECTION 41.5% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 14 NUMBER WHO THOUGHT COUNTRY WAS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDED DOWN LEADING INTO THE ELECTION

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan 2009 – October 2012 State Unemployment Rate (Sept 2012) National 7.8% Nevada 11.8% North Carolina 9.6% Florida 8.7% Colorado 8% Wisconsin 7.3% Ohio 7% Virginia 5.9% New Hampshire 5.7% Iowa 5.2% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED AS ELECTION APPROACHED, VARIED WIDELY IN SWING STATES THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 15

DISAPPROVE APPROVE Source: Gallup Poll Daily Tracking Each result is based on a three-day rolling average Nov 3-5 OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL TRENDED UP AS RACE ENTERED THE HOME STRETCH THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 16

PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS How Did It Happen? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 17

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 18 Demographics and the 2008 Coalition

% of Electorate White77%74%72% Black12%13% Hispanic/Latino8%9%10% Source: Exit Polls Spread White+17R+12R+20R Black+77D+91D+87D Hispanic/Latino+9D+36D+44D Hispanic vote growing And trending toward Obama THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 19 WHITE VOTE CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS % OF ELECTORATRE

% of Electorate National8910 Colorado81314 Florida Nevada North Carolina134 Ohio343 Virginia355 Wisconsin234 The Latino vote grew, especially in Florida and Nevada Obama’s margins increased – especially in Florida and Colorado Spread National+9D+36D+44D Colorado+38D+23D+49D Florida+12R+15D+22D Nevada+21D+54D+45D North Carolina--+31D Ohio+30D-+16 D Virginia-+31D+32 D Wisconsin+4D-+37D Source: Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 20 LATINO TURNOUT UP TWO POINTS, SUPPORT FOR OBAMA STRENGTHENS FROM 2008

% of Electorate Source: Exit Polls Spread D+34D+23D R+6D+7D R+1D+4R 65++8R +12R THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 21 SHIFT AWAY FROM OBAMA AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS EXCEPT YEAR OLDS

Source: Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 22 GENDER DIVIDE WIDENS TO 18 POINTS FROM 12 IN 2008

Democrat38%39%38% Independent26%29% Republican38%32% Party SplitEvenD+7D+6 Source: Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 23 PARTISAN DIVIDE REMAINS STEADY FROM 2008

How do you feel about the federal government's aid to U.S. automakers? Source: 2012 Exit Polls PRESIDENT OBAMA’S SUPPORT OF THE AUTO BAILOUT HELPED HIM IN CRITICAL SWING STATES Approve 62% +53D 53% 60% +59D +48D Michigan Wisconsin Ohio THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 24

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 25 The Economy

Source: Gallup Poll, October 15-16, 2012 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? PROBLEM% The economy37 Unemployment26 Federal budget deficit12 Dissatisfaction with gov’t 9 Health care7 Lack of money5 Education4 Foreign aid/Focus overseas 4 Ethical/moral/family decline 4 Results <4% not shown ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVE ELECTORAL AGENDA THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 26

Source: 2012 Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 27 “THE ECONOMY” WAS #1 ISSUE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORED ROMNEY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR THE WIN

Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you? Source: 2012 Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 28 BUT A DEEPER DIVE ON ECONOMIC MEASURES SHOWS ROMNEY ONLY OUTPERFORMS ON TAXES

Source: CNN and MSNBC exit polls TotalObamaRomney Better today 25%84%15% Worse today 33%18%80% About the same 41%58%40% Obama wins among those who believe things are the same from four years ago. TotalObamaRomney Barack Obama 38%5%94% George W. Bush 53%85%12% Compared to four years ago, is your family's financial situation: Who is more to blame for current economic problems? Voters still blame George Bush for current economic problems. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 29 FEW ARE SEEING PROGRESS FINANCIALLY, BUSH STILL BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

Source: CNN Poll, Sept 7-9, Do you think the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats or George W. Bush and the Republicans are more responsible for the country's current economic problems? Both Equally Bush and the Republicans Obama and the Democrats SINCE 2010 MAJORITY HAVE BLAMED BUSH FOR THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC PROMBLEMS THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 30 Neither/ No opinion * Sept 2012 asked of likely voters, other dates asked of all Americans..

Source: CBS News Poll, March 18-21, 2011 Who do you think is mostly to blame for the current state of the nation’s economy – (1) the Bush Administration, (2) the Obama Administration, (3) Wall Street and financial institutions, (4) Congress, or (5) someone else? BUSH ADMINISTARTION AND WALL STREET STILL BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 31

Source: 2012 Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 32 ROMNEY WINS ON NEARLY ALL TRAITS, YET OBAMA STILL WON ELECTION Has a vision for the future 29% Spread +9R Total Shares my values 27% +13R Cares about people like me 21% +63D Is a strong leader 18% +23R

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 33 EMPATHY TRUMPS ECONOMY? Who is more in touch with people like you? % Vote Obama Vote Romney Obama53%91%9% Romney43%1%98% Obama more in touch with voters Split on economy Who would better handle the economy? % Vote Obama Vote Romney Obama48%98%1% Romney49%4%94% Source: Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 34 Incumbency, Organization, Targeting, and Math

Source: National Journal $ millions OBAMAROMNEY Overall Spending Advantage Campaign Outside Spending TotalCampaign Outside Spending Total Colorado $29.8$9.1$38.3$17.0$24.5$41.5$3.1 Florida $66.7$11.1$77.7$44.0$60.3$104.3$26.6 Iowa $24.6$4.0$28.6$16.5$26.1$42.6$14.0 Nevada $22.2$3.7$25.8$12.2$20.2$32.4$6.6 New Hampshire $21.4$.05$21.5$5.5$11.9$17.4$4.2 North Carolina $24.2$0$24.2$17.1$28.1$45.2$21.0 Ohio $72.8$18.9$91.7$43.2$57.4$100.6$8.9 Virginia $52.9$13.8$66.8$33.2$49.3$82.5$15.7 Wisconsin $11.2$3.6$14.7$7.7$23.3$31.0$16.3 Barack Obama Total Spending: $389.3 million Campaign Spending: $333.4 million PAC Spending: $64.2 million Romney Swing State Advertising Spending Advantage +$108.2 million Mitt Romney Total Spending: $497.5 million Campaign Spending: $196.4 million PAC Spending: $301.0 million THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 35 ROMNEY HAD CLEAR $ ADVANTAGE IN ADVERTISING…

Source: Obama and Romney Websites Swing State Field Offices ObamaRomney Obama Advantage Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Virginia Wisconsin Romney Field Offices 205 Obama Field Offices 596 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 36 …BUT OBAMA’S GROUND GAME ADVANTAGE WAS STAGGERING AND CRITICAL TO HIS SUCCESS

Source: Obama and Romney Campaigns Obama Campaign made 125 million personal contacts* Romney Campaign made 50 million personal contacts** **Since the spring *Since the last election When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? %Spread Just today 3+7D In the last few days 6+5D In October 11+1D In September 9+8R Before that 69+7D THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 37 OBAMA’S VOTER CONTACT EFFORTS GREATLY EXCEEDED ROMNEY’S AND MAY HAVE PERSUADED LATE DECIDERS

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 38

Government should do more to solve problems 46%51%43% Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals 49%43%51% Source: 2012 Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 39 HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: VIEW OF GOVERNMENT

ObamaRomney EXPAND IT OR LEAVE IT AS IS (44%)87%11% Expand it (26%)92%5% Leave It As Is (18%)80%19% REPEAL SOME OF IT OR ALL OF IT (49%)15%83% Repeal some of it (24%)27%72% Repeal all of it (25%)3%93% Source: 2012 Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 40 HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: 2010 HEALTH CARE LAW

ObamaRomney Increase For All (13%) 52%44% Increase Only On Income Over $250K (47%) 70%29% Not Increase Them For Anyone (35%) 23%75% ObamaRomney Favors the Wealthy (55%) 71%26% Is Fair to Most Americans (39%) 22%77% U.S. Economic System Source: 2012 Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 41 HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: INCOME TAXES

ObamaRomney Offered a chance to apply for legal status (65%) 61%37% Deported to the country they came from (28%) 24%73% Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: Source: 2012 Exit Polls THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 42 HOT ISSUES FOR NEW CONGRESS: IMMIGRATION

Source: Pew Research Center, Nov. 8-11,2012. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 43 THE FISCAL CLIFF SEEN AS THREAT TO BOTH NATIONAL AND PERSONAL FINANCES If these automatic spending cuts and tax increases go into effect, do you think they would have a major effect, minor effect or no effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation]? ASKED OF THOSE WHO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN EFFECT: And would the effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation] be mostly positive or mostly negative? If these automatic spending cuts and tax increases go into effect, do you think they would have a major effect, minor effect or no effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation]? ASKED OF THOSE WHO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN EFFECT: And would the effect on the [U.S. economy/your own financial situation] be mostly positive or mostly negative? Effect of automatic tax increases and spending cuts on… The U.S. economy Your own financial situation Major effect6844 Minor effect2138 No effect29 Don’t know109 Effect will be… Mostly negative6260 Mostly positive2017 No effect/Don’t know1824

Source: Pew Research Center, Nov. 8-11,2012. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 44 PUBLIC SKEPTICAL ABOUT AGREEMENT; MORE WOULD BLAME REPUBLICANS Do you think President Obama and Republicans will reach an agreement to prevent automatic spending cuts and tax increases from going into effect before January 1 st, or not? If an agreement is not reached, who do you think would be more to blame: Republicans in Congress or President Obama? Do you think President Obama and Republicans will reach an agreement to prevent automatic spending cuts and tax increases from going into effect before January 1 st, or not? If an agreement is not reached, who do you think would be more to blame: Republicans in Congress or President Obama? Will President Obama and Reps in Congress reach agreement? TotalRepDemInd Yes No Don’t know More to blame if agreement not reached… Reps in Congress President Obama Both Neither23*3 Don’t know74310 Dems more optimistic on deal Independents more likely to blame Republican Congress

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: David Cantor THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES | 45