Presidential Primaries: How Iowa, New Hampshire, and Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Presidential Primaries: Or, Who won Iowa & then the GOP Nomination

How it used to work National nominating conventions Selection of delegates controlled by party officials Many / most delegates uncommitted

Example Kennedy vs. Nixon To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win Entered West Virginia primary election “Real” choice made inside the national convention meeting

Before 1972 Most states did not have public primary or caucus In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters By % selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention

Today Primaries or Caucuses Primary = vote “directly” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate). Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

The Demise of Nominating Conventions Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes) Gave “too much” control to party leaders Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

Chicago, 1968 Incumbent President was LB Johnson Vietnam War in 4th year: Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968 New Hampshire Primary, March 1968 McCarthy 42% LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but.... RFK enters race days latter G. Wallace saying he’ll runs as 3rd Party

Chicago, 1968 LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968 Vice President HHH says he’ll run Primaries & Delegates prior to convention: RFK won delegates McCarthy won delegates HHH didn't run 561 delegates

Chicago 1968 RFK assassinated June 1968 Convention in August: video

Chicago, 1968 Democratic Convention Vote: HHH1759 McCarthy 601 McGovern 146 Philips 67 Moore 17

After Chicago Democrats split, lose to Nixon Rule of ‘party bosses’ challenged by McCarthy, McGovern Reform commission established State laws changed

Post 1968 Reforms New Nomination Rules: most delegates must be selected by voters but how? caucuses with open participation primaries, with candidates on ballot Proportionality (Democrats) maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

Post 1968 reforms What is a political party? voters? elected officials? elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

Since 1972 National parties kept tinkering with rules: how award state’s delegates? winner take all? proportional to voter support? PLEOS? who can participate only registered partisans? independents what schedule, when start? March, then February, then January...

The Carter Model outsider candidate ‘beats’ party establishment Gary Hart ‘84; John McCain 2000; Obama ‘08 The Mondale/Clinton/Bush/Romney Model Super-delegates (PLEOs) from 75% voter selected to 54% Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

Frontloading 1984IA Feb 20NH Feb 28 50% selected by May 20th 1988IA Feb 8NH Feb IA Feb 10NH Feb IA Feb 12NH Feb IA Jan 24NH Feb IA Jan 19NH Jan IA Jan 3NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9th

Frontloading 1976, 12 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded 2008, 4 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded

Differences Dems vs. Republicans Schedules Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun Proportionality A Democratic thing; GOP was winner take all Super Delegates A Democratic thing Republicans more predictable Democrats = chaos

To summarize Party Conventions used to pick nominees Voters in primaries / caucuses now pick Primary / caucus rules matter what state goes first? how allocate delegates?

Iowa, 2012: RCP poll average Romney23% Paul22% Santorum16% Gingrich14% Perry12% Bachman 7%

Iowa, ‘predicted’ result: Romney28% Paul18% Santorum15% Gingrich15% Perry 9% Bachmann whatever…

Expectations What do pre-Iowa poll results reflect? What is expected, given these results? By whom? What if candidate fails to meet expectations?

Iowa, 2012: Result Santorum25%* Romney25% Paul21% Gingrich13% Perry10% Bachman 5%

Iowa, 2012 Why so much attention? stories on CNN stories on ABC AP stories stories NYT 2012: 40+ NYT stories by Dec 24 th 2011

Iowa, 2012 What effects of Iowa this year? Who stays in race? Who drops out? Did any other state play this role? Why Iowa?

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? Bachmann – dead.

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? Perry – dead.

Iowa, 2012 Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa? Newt – walking dead.

Beating expectations:

Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney33% pre, 37% post Paul20% pre, 17% post Gingrich20% pre, 11% post Perry9% pre, 7% post Bachman7% pre, 3% post Santorum9% pre, 21% post Huntsman2% pre, 2% post

Beating expectations Would Santorum have been known w/o Iowa? Huckabee? Would Obama have beat Clinton?

So, what role Iowa? Winnowing field of candidates Defining frontrunner Killed Romney ‘08, made Obama ‘08… Influence what happens in NH?

So, Why Iowa? What if different state went first? What if same-day national primary? Regional primaries?

Why Iowa? Benefits of sequential elections Learning?