Governmental Centre for Strategic Studies SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND IN POLAND FEASIBILITY WORKSHOP ON SKILL NEEDS FORECASTING IN EUROPE October 2005 PAFOS, CYPRUS Elżbieta Majchrowicz Governmental Centre for Strategic Studies

ORIGIN OF THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND IN POLAND  establishing the Intergovernmental Task Force on Forecasting Labour demand within the Governmental Centre for Strategic Studies (GCSS) as an auxiliary body for the Council of Ministers  Composition of the Task Force: - chairman – vice-president of GCSS - vice-chairmen – vice-president of Central Statistical Office (CSO), deputy minister of labour - members - representatives of GCSS, CSO, ministries, the world of research and the world of work.  Objective of the Task Force: drawing up a concept of computerised integrated system of forecasting labour demand in Poland.

initiating studies, working papers and research related to forecasting the situation on the labour market; defining needs in terms of information sources necessary to conducting labour demand projections; consulting and approving research methodology and programmes of implementation of particular parts of the forecast; periodically presenting conclusions emerging from the forecasts to the Council of Ministers. RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL TASK FORCE ON FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND

RATIONALE FOR ESTABLISHING THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND IN POLAND Projecting labour demand is crucial to proper decision-making in the field of social, educational and labour market policy. Knowledge on the economic potential and its effectiveness should be based upon reliable and credible information: gathered, verified, processed and updated on the grounds of a rational and objective information system. For the existing limitations there is a necessity of establishing an appropriate system of forecasting the situation on the labour market as a prerequisite for adequate planning and programming economic, social and education policy.

NOVEMBER 2004 LAUNCH OF THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND IN POLAND The System is available on the website (access to certain modules is restricted)

SPECIAL ROLE OF THE SYSTEM allows the decision-makers and politicians to competently inform the society about expected changes on the labour market, related to projected directions of the economic development; enables more optimal allocation of human resources; allows to plan changes in the education system with adequate time advance; facilitates preparation and organisation of upskilling and retraining persons performing occupations for which the demand in the labour market will be declining; this sort of data provided to pupils and students before they have taken decisions on further education or training, will help them plan their educational and professional career in a more informed way.

THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND IS FIRST EVER IN POLAND A PROPOSAL OF COMBINING DATABASES, PREDICTIVE INSTRUMENTS AND COMPUTING TOOLS INTO AN ENTIRETY CONSTITUTING AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM AIMING AT PRESENTING AND PROJECTING ECONOMIC PHENOMENA, ESPECIALLY SITUATION ON THE LABOUR MARKET AND LABOUR DEMAND.

THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND UTILISES THE FOLLOWING FORECASTING METHODS AND MODELS: exponential smoothing trend model with seasonality autoregressive model single-equation model vector-autoregressive models VAR multi-equation models - seemingly unrelated (regression) SUR macroeconomic forecast expert forecast

SCOPE OF THE FORECAST total demand only not included: replacement demand, expansion demand not included: supply side, interaction between demand and supply time coverage: 5 years frequency of the forecast: annual

DATA SOURCES FOR THE SYSTEM yearly macroeconomic data produced by Central Statistical Office (e.g. budget revenues and expenditures, export volume, GDP, inflation indicator, etc.); quarterly data derived from the Labour Force Survey in Poland; monthly data produced by labour offices (structural statistics).

CLASSIFICATIONS USED BY THE SYSTEM Classification of Occupations for the labour market needs (in line with International Standard Classification of Occupations ISCO-88 and its new version ISCO-88 COM of 1994 adjusted to the requirements of the EU) International Standard Classification of Education ISCED-97 Polish Classification of Activities PKD (based on European Classification of Activities NACE)

EXAMPLES OF FORECASTS

Employed by section of activity (NACE) – real estate, renting and business activities (1000) – forecast till 2010

Employed by minor groups ISCO-88 COM – computing professionals (1000) – forecast till 2010

Employed by minor groups ISCO-88 COM – miners, shot-firers, stone-cutters and carvers (1000) – forecast till 2008

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