Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS1 Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to.

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Presentation transcript:

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS1 Forest Change and Fire in Colorado’s Front Range A presentation that uses computer-generated drawings and animations to describe the results of forest succession and fire behavior modeling. Jane Kapler Smith USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Modeling Institute 20 May 2002

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS2 Forests change. More time… more (& bigger) trees. c c

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS3

now ???? future

5

6 To understand Forest Change: A Mathematical Model “Forest Vegetation Simulator” Forest succession, fuels, & fire

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS future? c c. 1903

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS8 “Model”? Models help us understand… and predict

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS9 Mathematical model: Use data to find patterns from the pastUse data to find patterns from the past Understand the presentUnderstand the present Predict the futurePredict the future

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS10 “Mathematical model”? May 1979

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS11 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How do our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS12 Ponderosa pine in Colorado

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS13 Cheesman Reservoir: Historic data on Ponderosa Pine Forests Thanks to: Merrill Kaufmann, Paula Fornwalt, Laurie Huckaby, and Jason Stoker, Rocky Mtn. Research Station

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS14 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS15 The players: ponderosa pine… 0.5 inch

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS16 3+ inches Fire resistant buds & bark at 7 years old

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS17 … and Douglas-fir 0.1 to 0.2 inch

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS18 Reproduces well even in shade

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS20

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS c c. 1903

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS22 Medium-46% Dense-70% Open-18% Modeled examples:

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS Modeled 2000 Data ~1896 Data

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS24 Modeled Patches on the Landscape

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS Modeled Succession:

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS28

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS Modeled Succession

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS “ladder fuels”

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS31

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS34 How do Front Range forests change over time? Increased crown cover Increased number of small trees Small Douglas-firs outnumber all other species and all other sizes.

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS35 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS36 All fires are not equal Surface fire Passive crown fire Active crown fire

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS Modeled 2000 Data ~1896 Data

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS38 Modeling Cheesman Historic Fires:

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS39 Cheesman Historic Fires Again

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS42 Model fire behavior: One patch of forest One patch of forest 1900 (open crown cover) 1900 (open crown cover) vs (medium to dense crown cover) vs (medium to dense crown cover)

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS43 Modeled fire spread: 5 mph winds

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS44 5 mph winds again

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS45 Active crown fire Passive crown fire Surface fire

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS46 Surface & Passive Crowning Active Crowning Open (1900) Dense (2000) Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire Wind, mph 60

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS mph wind 40 mph wind After fire– modeled view from above

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS48

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS49

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS50

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS51 How has succession in Front Range forests influenced fire? Greater risk of active crown fireGreater risk of active crown fire More smokeMore smoke Greater likelihood of erosionGreater likelihood of erosion

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS52

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS54 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS55 Modeled 2050 No data Modeled 2000 Data ~1896 Data

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS56 Modeled 2050 Modeled Data ?? Modeled 2050

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2050 Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS : “hands off” : Treat 25%

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS trees/ac trees trees Modeled Succession

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS trees

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS Modeled Succession

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS63

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS64 Denser (2050) Surface & Passive Crowning Active Crowning Open (1900) Dense (2000) Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire Wind, mph 60

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS66 Modeled Treatment and Succession – after thinning & fire Ponderosa pine Douglas-fir Aspen

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS – after thinning & fire

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS68 treated (2010) treated (2010) treated (2050) treated (2050) Surface & Passive Crowning Active Crowning Dense (2000) Modeled Potential for Active Crown Fire Wind, mph 60

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2050 Choice 1: “Hands off” 2050 Choice 2: Thin from below, prescribed burn

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS70 Ponderosa pine in Colorado

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS71 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How do our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS72 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS73 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS74 1.How do forests change over time? 2.How do fires influence forests, and forests influence fires? 3.How can our choices influence forests… and fires?

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS75 “Models”

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS76

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS77 Thank you! Thanks for help: Arapaho-Roosevelt N.F., Bitterroot N.F., Amy Smith, Carol Akerelrea, Cass Cairns, Dennis Simmerman, Denver Water (photo archives), Don Zimmerman, Duncan Lutes, Dwain Smith, Fire Use Management Team, Jason Stoker, Jim Menakis, Joe Scott, John Hutmacher, Joint Fire Sciences Project, Larry Bradshaw, Laurie Huckaby, Merrill Kaufmann, Mick Harrington, Nick Crookston, Paul Moore, Paula Fornwalt, Rick Fletcher, Sherry Ritter, Staff at Forest Management Service Center, Steve Arno, Wayne Cook

Demonstration: FVS-FEE with SVS78 Publications documenting some of the information in this presentation: Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Fornwalt, Paula J.; Huckaby, Laurie S.; Stoker, Jason M Cheesman Lake– a historical ponderosa pine landscape guiding restoration in the South Platte watershed of the Colorado Front Range. In: Vance, Regina K.; Covington, W. Wallace; Edminster, Carleton B., tech. coords. Ponderosa pine ecosystems restoration and conservation: steps toward stewardship; 2000 April 25-27; Flagstaff, AZ. Proceedings RMRS-P- 00. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Huckaby, Laurie; Gleason, Paul Ponderosa pine in the Colorado Front Range: long historical fire and tree recruitment intervals and a case for landscape heterogeneity. In: Neuenschwander, L. R.; Ryan, K. C.; Gollberg, G. E.; Greer, J. D., eds. Crossing the millennium: integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management, Vol. 1. Moscow, ID: University of Idaho and International Association of Wildland Fire: Kaufmann, Merrill R.; Regan, Claudia M.; Brown, Peter M Heterogeneity in ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests: age and size structure in unlogged and logged landscapes of central Colorado. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research. 30: