Research Study on Wind Turbine Acoustics DRAFT March 7, 2014 Interim Results II for WNTAG.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Effect Size Mechanics.
Advertisements

Welcome to PHYS 225a Lab Introduction, class rules, error analysis Julia Velkovska.
Statistics Review – Part II Topics: – Hypothesis Testing – Paired Tests – Tests of variability 1.
Case Study: Impact of Above Ground Spent Fuel Storage on Nearby Meteorological Systems Jim Holian SAIC NUMUG Meeting Charlotte, NC June 2008.
ALBERTA WIND POWER VARIABILITY STUDY Represented by Tommi Pensas.
©2014 IDBS, Confidential Statistical Process Control Workshop An Introduction to the Principles behind SPC Ilca Croufer.
1 Incorporating Statistical Process Control and Statistical Quality Control Techniques into a Quality Assurance Program Robyn Sirkis U.S. Census Bureau.
Regression Analysis Once a linear relationship is defined, the independent variable can be used to forecast the dependent variable. Y ^ = bo + bX bo is.
Weather and X/Q 1 Impact Of Weather Changes On TVA Nuclear Plant Chi/Q (  /Q) Kenneth G. Wastrack Doyle E. Pittman Jennifer M. Call Tennessee Valley Authority.
Assessing PM 2.5 Background Levels and Local Add-On Prepared by Bryan Lambeth, PE Field Operations Support Division Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.
Chapter 13 Multiple Regression
Chapter 12 Multiple Regression
Topic 7 Sampling And Sampling Distributions. The term Population represents everything we want to study, bearing in mind that the population is ever changing.
Regression line – Fitting a line to data If the scatter plot shows a clear linear pattern: a straight line through the points can describe the overall.
Timed. Transects Statistics indicate that overall species Richness varies only as a function of method and that there is no difference between sites.
CHAPTER 6 Statistical Analysis of Experimental Data
Parameterised turbine performance Power Curve Working Group – Glasgow, 16 December 2014 Stuart Baylis, Matthew Colls, Przemek Marek, Alex Head.
Chapter 7 Estimation: Single Population
Linear Regression Example Data
Uncertainty in Wind Energy
The impacts of hourly variations of large scale wind power production in the Nordic countries on the system regulation needs Hannele Holttinen.
V. Rouillard  Introduction to measurement and statistical analysis ASSESSING EXPERIMENTAL DATA : ERRORS Remember: no measurement is perfect – errors.
Wind Power Analysis Using Non-Standard Statistical Models
Modeling errors in physical activity data Sarah Nusser Department of Statistics and Center for Survey Statistics and Methodology Iowa State University.
An Aircraft Operation Counting System Using Type 2 Sound Level Meters and Automatic Data Processing Jaime Giandomenico Mariana Buzduga Richard J. Peppin.
De Anza Research, May 19, LinC Research Site visit with Marybeth Mason and Sally Murphy  Feedback on Retention and Success Assessment  Discussion.
Managing Software Projects Analysis and Evaluation of Data - Reliable, Accurate, and Valid Data - Distribution of Data - Centrality and Dispersion - Data.
Error Analysis Accuracy Closeness to the true value Measurement Accuracy – determines the closeness of the measured value to the true value Instrument.
Basic Business Statistics, 11e © 2009 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 8-1 Confidence Interval Estimation.
Lecture 12 Statistical Inference (Estimation) Point and Interval estimation By Aziza Munir.
1 MassDEP Wind Turbine Noise Technical Advisory Group.
A Statistical Comparison of Weather Stations in Carberry, Manitoba, Canada.
Introduction Stomatal conductance regulates the rates of several necessary processes in plants including transpiration, carbon dioxide assimilation, and.
Agricultural Irrigation Pump Variable Frequency Drive Provisional Standard Protocol Proposal Regional Technical Forum April 16, 2013.
A Statistical Analysis of Seedlings Planted in the Encampment Forest Association By: Tony Nixon.
Instrumentation (cont.) February 28 Note: Measurement Plan Due Next Week.
Capacity Forecast Report Sean Chang Market Analysis and Design Suresh Pabbisetty CQF, ERP, CSQA Credit CWG/MCWG September 16, 2015 ERCOT Public.
Renewable Energy Research Laboratory University of Massachusetts Prediction Uncertainties in Measure- Correlate-Predict Analyses Anthony L. Rogers, Ph.D.
Going to Extremes: A parametric study on Peak-Over-Threshold and other methods Wiebke Langreder Jørgen Højstrup Suzlon Energy A/S.
Patterns of Event Causality Suggest More Effective Corrective Actions Abstract: The Occurrence Reporting and Processing System (ORPS) has used a consistent.
7 March /24/  MassDEP convened WNTAG to advise the Department on how to craft an effective regulatory & policy response to Wind Turbine.
Lecture 2 Forestry 3218 Lecture 2 Statistical Methods Avery and Burkhart, Chapter 2 Forest Mensuration II Avery and Burkhart, Chapter 2.
AWS Truewind Methodology Timeline of AWS Truewind participation Key points Wind resource modeling Estimation of plant output Validation and adjustment.
Average Arithmetic and Average Quadratic Deviation.
AP Psychology September What is “Statistics”?  A common language for describing, organizing, and interpreting data  Aspects:  Distribution 
CEN st Lecture CEN 4021 Software Engineering II Instructor: Masoud Sadjadi Monitoring (POMA)
Chapter 16 Data Analysis: Testing for Associations.
Lecture 4 Introduction to Multiple Regression
Low-Dimensional Chaotic Signal Characterization Using Approximate Entropy Soundararajan Ezekiel Matthew Lang Computer Science Department Indiana University.
U.S. HYDRO 2007 TIDES WORKSHOP May 17, 2006 UNCERTAINTY WORKSHOP SKGILL SLIDES.
OTAG Air Quality Analysis Workgroup Volume I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Dave Guinnup and Bob Collom, Workgroup co-chair Telling the OTAG Ozone Story with Data.
Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 13 Linear Correlation and Regression Analysis.
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19 Confidence Intervals for Proportions.
Results of initial research – Phase 0 Eskdalemuir Working Group 16 th Aug 2013 Dr Mark-Paul Buckingham.
Exposure Assessment for Health Effect Studies: Insights from Air Pollution Epidemiology Lianne Sheppard University of Washington Special thanks to Sun-Young.
Evaluation of SVP-BW drifters thanks to deployments near moored buoys DBCP-18 workshop - Martinique October 2002 By Pierre Blouch Presentation :
Capacity Forecast Report Fall Update Sean Chang Market Analysis and Design Suresh Pabbisetty CQF, ERP, CSQA Credit CWG/MCWG December 16, 2015 ERCOT Public.
Regulatory background How these standards could impact the permitting process How is compliance with the standards assessed.
An evaluation of power performance for a small wind turbine in turbulent wind regimes Nicholas J. Ward Ph.D. Student, Energy Engineering Advisor: Dr. Susan.
IEC FDIS 2016 Consensus Analysis Project
Scanning LiDAR in Offshore Wind
Chapter 14 Introduction to Multiple Regression
Results from the Offshore Wind Accelerator (OWA) Power Curve Validation using LiDAR Project Lee Cameron, Alex Clerc, Peter Stuart, Simon Feeney, Ian Couchman.
Turbulence and Heterogeneous Wind
Hypothesis testing March 20, 2000.
Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building
Data Analysis.
Regression Computer Print Out
Lidar Measurement Accuracy under Complex Wind Flow in Use for Wind Farm Projects Matthieu Boquet, Mehdi Machta, Jean-Marc Thevenoud
Topic 3: Meteorology and data filtering
Presentation transcript:

Research Study on Wind Turbine Acoustics DRAFT March 7, 2014 Interim Results II for WNTAG

RSG Interim Report II Interim Report II for WNTAG focuses on a comparison of sound metrics with sound modeling to help inform and synchronize pre-construction estimates with post-construction monitoring. CONTENTS New terms Review of data collection Sound monitoring metrics Pre-construction sound predictions Attended sound monitoring Statistical confidence

RSG Review of data collection Four sites to date – -all in Massachusetts -all 1.5 MW or greater Five sound monitoring locations at each site -1/3 octave bands + other metrics at 100 ms to 1 s intervals -Type I sound monitors Infrasound monitoring at one location (inside and outside) at one site One LIDAR location at each site One 10-meter met tower at each site Turbine operating conditions collected by operator Over 120,000,000 data records logged Over 150 sound level, meteorological, operational, and observational variables

Sound monitoring metrics

RSG New terms Site Location Background sound level vs ambient L90 LAf max (1-sec) L90 of the L90

RSG Consideration of new sound monitoring metric for Turbine sound – L90 of Laf max(1-sec)

RSG Consideration of new sound monitoring metric for Turbine sound – L90 of Laf max(1-sec)

RSG Consideration of new sound monitoring metric for Turbine sound – L90 of Laf max(1-sec)

RSG Sound monitoring metrics – Background sound

RSG Sound monitoring metrics – Background sound

RSG Sound monitoring metrics – Background sound

RSG Background L90 - Variability

RSG Effect of wind speed on L90 – wind shear Wind Shear Wind shear exponents

RSG Background L90 and Wind Speed are significantly correlated Slopes of 80-meter wind speed vs sound level for various methodologies

RSG Wind speeds vary during any measurement period Example of a 10-minute period at one site, showing the frequency of occurrence of 0.5 m/s bins for 9 m/s average wind speed ws standard deviations

Pre-construction sound predictions

RSG Example of pre-construction modeling methodology for one site 370 meters downwind

RSG Example of pre-construction modeling methodology for one site 370 meters downwind Slope of brown line in db/meter per second

RSG Example of pre-construction modeling methodology for one site 370 meters downwind

RSG Example of pre-construction modeling methodology for one site 370 meters downwind

RSG Example of pre-construction modeling methodology for one site 370 meters downwind

RSG Measured L90s of turbine sound levels

RSG Perfect modeling of wind turbine sound

Attended sound monitoring

RSG Filtering background sound

RSG Filtering background sound

RSG Filtering background sound

Statistical Confidence in Measurements

RSG New terms Statistical Bias Accuracy Precision Confidence Interval Standard Deviation Standard Error

RSG Comparing background to turbine-on measurements

RSG Estimate means and confidence intervals

RSG Estimate means and confidence intervals

RSG Suggested strategy for using different metrics for background and turbine-on measurements

Conclusions

RSG Some specific conclusions from the report Background sound levels vary by time of year, time of day, and day of week. Natural short-term variation is partly a function wind speed and wind shear Sound levels measured on the ground increase when 80 meter wind speed increases Wind shear variation is highest at night and at low wind speeds Background sound will contaminate measurements of wind turbine sound -Wind alone can have a significant effect -By definition, 90% of the turbine-on measurements have background levels that are higher than the L90 When measuring over five or 10 minutes, the wind speed exceeded 90 percent of the time is likely to be at a lower integer wind speed than the mean wind speed

RSG More specific conclusions from the report Since L90 and wind speed are correlated, this means that the L90 is also likely to occur at a lower wind speed relative to the mean. Adjustments can be made to account for this. The 10 th percentile wind speed is a function of the mean and standard deviation of the measured wind speed over a period Considerations of sound metrics -Using L90 of Laf max (1-sec) for both background and turbine-on measurements -Improving predictability by establishing a turbine-only sound limit based on background measurements during pre- construction -Incorporating some type of statistical analysis to improve confidence in compliance measurement -Adjust turbine-on sound metric (if different from background metric) to account for higher background sound.

RSG General conclusions Overall, real-world systems are dynamic. Methods developed should take into account likelihood that Conditions change during the measurement Conditions change over time Measurements including everything that produces sound in the environment Methods to measure and model sound will have biases Methods to measure and model sound will have variability

Contacts Contact Kenneth Kaliski, P.E., INCE Bd. Cert. Senior Director