The AIACC Project Building Scientific Capacity in Support of Adaptation Neil Leary, START AIACC Science Director UNFCCC Workshop on Guidelines for National Communications of non-Annex I Parties Port Louis, Mauritius 8-11 April 2003

2 The IPCC TAR confirmed the following: Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change There are substantial gaps in scientific understanding of climate change risks in developing countries and of their potential for adaptation. The capacity for scientific research in developing countries on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptations is deficient relative to the needs.

3 Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science Scientific investigation needed to answer: –Who are most vulnerable? –What are the causes of their vulnerability? –What are their options for adaptation? –What are the consequences, benefits and costs of different adaptation strategies? Answering these questions can help to identify effective adaptation strategies

4 The AIACC Project was initiated to Build capacity in developing countries for research in support of climate change adaptation Advance scientific understanding of climate change impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities Link the research community with the policy community to support national communications and adaptation planning

5 AIACC Partners AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START, TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions –GEF provides the principal funding –UNEP is the implementing agency –START and TWAS are the executing agencies –IPCC helped launch AIACC and provides oversight –Participating institutions in developing countries provide significant collateral funding –Additional funding comes from USAID, CIDA, USEPA, and the World Bank

6 Methods of achieving AIACC objectives Fund regional research projects Provide training and mentoring Engage stakeholders in the project Engage with National Communications Establish a network of scientists and stakeholders to endure beyond the AIACC project

7 AIACC funds regional research Participation in research is our primary method of capacity building Awards made to 24 Regional studies in 2002 –Scientific merit –Regional significance –Endorsement by GEF National Focal Points Funded projects will advance scientific understanding of regional vulnerabilities and adaptations –Food security, agriculture, grazing lands, water resources, coastal settlements, biodiversity, human health, rural livelihoods

8 AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries Each study involves a team of scientists from multiple disciplines –235+ scientists from developing countries participating as investigators –60+ graduate and undergraduate students –40+ scientists from developed countries collaborating

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10 AIACC provides training Global training workshops Regional workshops organized by regional study teams Additional small grants to AIACC participants (USAID supported) –Visiting scientist exchanges –Develop & implement own training activities

11 AIACC Provides Mentoring –Advice on methods, data, scenarios, models –Troubleshooting –Referrals to other sources of expertise –Encourage/facilitate peer review publication –Encourage/facilitate contributions to National Communications Team of 10 AIACC mentors to assist throughout the project

12 Stakeholders, Nat’l Communications, Networks AIACC engages stakeholders –For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation of adaptations, review of outputs AIACC links with National Communications –Each regional study making contact with and engaging relevant ministries, committees, persons AIACC builds networks –Through participation in studies, workshops, “discuss aiacc” list- serve, and web-based database and information network

13 AIACC Regional Studies Highly Heterogeneous Not a research program with specific objectives, approaches, scenarios, models dictated from above Different objectives determine relative emphases on I, A, & V in the regional studies Researchers’ objectives drive choices of approaches, methods, models, scenarios Choices are made by the regional study PIs and their teams

14 Commonalities among regional studies Most are interested in –Near-term consequences of climate change –Interactions with other stresses or threats –Human and social aspects of vulnerability –Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would lessen risks from climate change AND address other possibly more immediate threats Has led many AIACC studies to take a “2nd Generation” approach to assessment

15 2nd-Generation Assessments Emphasize understanding human side of vulnerabilities –Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why? Explore multiple, interacting stresses –Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land use change, urbanization, land degradation... Examine recent experience –What strategies have been used to cope with climate variability & other stresses? With what success? Evaluate responses, adaptations –Focus responses on causes of vulnerability Engage stakeholders –Enhance relevance, utility, credibility

16 Three dimensions of vulnerability Exposure to a stress or set of stresses –E.g., climate change Sensitivity of exposed person, place or system to the stresses –Incorporates capacity to anticipate, cope with, and resist the impacts Resilience or capacity to recover and adapt –to maintain fundamental structure & function

17 Framework for “2nd Generation” Assessment

18 Comparison of 1st & 2nd Generation Assessments 1st Generation Motivation: how bad are the risks? Attempt to “predict” impacts Careful attention to modeling future exposure Focus on a single stress Recent experience not directly relevant Capacities to respond not emphasized Treatment of adaptation is ad hoc, afterthought 2nd Generation Motivation: what responses can reduce risks? Investigate causes of vulnerability Careful attention to social causes of vulnerability, capacities to respond using sensitivity analyses Multiple stresses considered Recent experience with hazards, stresses used as analogues Treatment of adaptation is central

19 AIACC projects are innovative in their methods Participatory approach to identify and evaluate present means of coping with climate variability (Philippines & Indonesia) Sustainable livelihoods framework to evaluate contributions of environmental management practices to building resilience to climate stresses (Sudan) Multicriteria analysis to evaluate and compare adaptation strategies (China)

20 Innovative methods continued Extension of “CLIMPACTS” model to address human dimensions of climate change impacts (Fiji and Cook Islands) Develop models of land use & cover, agriculture, economic activity and link them for integrated assessment (Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe) Identify determinants of vulnerability of rural populations in Sahel through use of household surveys and examination of secondary data (Nigeria and Mali)

21 Innovative methods continued Modeling of farm level management responses to climate change and policy change for different farm types (Mexico & Argentina) Development and application of benefit-cost framework for adaptation options (South Africa & Gambia) Construction of climate scenarios using high resolution regional climate modeling and statistical downscaling (South Africa, Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia, Zimbabwe)

22 Anticipated outcomes Build capacity –Participants continue, extend their research –Increased numbers of developing country researchers engaged in global change research and assessment activities (IPCC, IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS, MA) Advance science –Papers published in peer reviewed journals that expand literature on developing country I, A and V –Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC & MA reports Link research and policy communities –AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of Nat’l Communications –AIACC findings used in National Communications –AIACC evaluations of adaptation options lead to funding of adaptation pilot projects –Network of researchers and stakeholders established to provide for future collaborations